It's likely #Russian forces will renew offensive operations in the next 24-48 hours with emphasis on continuing to encircle #Kyiv, attacking west of #Kharkiv & capturing #Mariupol. Via @JominiW
1/ #Ukrainian Nationalist Volunteers Committing 'ISIS-Style' War Crimes: Amnesty International
Right-wing Ukrainian ultra nationalists are committing war crimes in rebel-held territories of Eastern #Ukraine, evidence of militias beheading their victims. newsweek.com/evidence-war-c…
2/ Armed volunteers who refer to themselves as the Aidar battalion "have been involved in widespread abuses, including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, and possible executions", Amnesty said.
3/ Kiev-based Pravilnoe TV reported that it had spoken with one of the mothers who confirmed her son was a rebel, captured during fighting in Donetsk.
She said she had received her son's head in a wooden box in the post, blaming nationalist volunteers for her son's death.
2/ By alluding to a disproportionate nuclear escalation, Moscow wants to limit (or even reverse) western interference in Ukraine, in order to make the Russian war effort more sustainable. The West’s most powerful weapon at present is sanctions rather than military intervention.
3/ This carries its own risks. If such measures were really to cause the near-term “collapse of the Russian economy” & threaten the survival of the domestic order, the Russian elite might come to perceive that existential threat as making victory vital in Ukraine, at all costs.
2/ Not long ago, Beijing was economical & targeted with its outrage, only lashing out over major issues.
“Now China just picks fights out of arrogance and bullying.”
After all, if most moves are likely to anger Beijing, why hold back from any of them?
3/ The #USA has led the way in expanding ties with #Taiwan while grappling with an increasingly prickly China.
Similar dynamics are changing the minds of world leaders. In #Europe Beijing’s belligerence dented its image & inadvertently boosted #Taiwan 's international profile.
The #ASEAN sees #aukus pact increases geopolitical risks in the region, as #aukus is aimed at countering rising Chinese belligerence.
The rise of partnerships in the region, which are not ASEAN-centric causes them concern.
2/ How have various #ASEAN countries reacted to #aukus ?
They've not reacted in unison. Each member expressed its own views. The divergence in opinion was quite apparent.
Brunei did not speak about it.
Indonesia expressed caution with AUKUS.
Malaysia appears astonished.
3/ #Vietnam is more open to #aukus “All countries strive for the same goal of peace, stability, cooperation, and development” & nuclear power can be harnessed for development.