Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Mar 7 21 tweets 13 min read
NEW: US assesses #Russia, "Mr. Putin has committed nearly 100% of his [pre-staged] combat power to #Ukraine, per senior US defense official

Russia's also launched +625 missiles, most are medium & short range surface to air missiles & cruise missiles, per official
NEW: US assesses #Ukraine airspace still contested, per senior US defense official

#Ukraine, @ZelenskyyUa still "has majority of his fixed wing aircraft available....they are flying"

Air defense systems also operable, per official
NEW: 500 additional US troops being sent to #Europe, per senior US defense official

Includes refueling personnel...

Brings total 100,000 US military personal stationed and/or deployed to #Europe, per the official
No indication #Russia preparing to move battalion tactical groups from elsewhere to shore up what they've put into #Ukraine, per senior US defense official
NEW: #Putin "is creating a flow of refugees" but no indications
NEW: "The Russians are trying to recruit #Syria|n in particular...we find that noteworthy that he [#Putin] blvs he needs to rely on foreign fighters" per senior US defense official

No estimate of numbers-"not clear to us that they've set a quota"
Reports of #Russia recruiting #Syria|ns for #Ukraine previously came from @DeirEzzor24: deirezzor24.net/en/russia-has-…

Also, @WSJ: wsj.com/articles/russi…
#Russia invasion of #Ukraine still stalling

"We're not seeing a lot of progress, at least over the course of the past couple of days" per senior US defense official "They continue to be frustrated by a stiff #Ukrainian resistance as well as their own internal challenges"
Senior US defense official cautions #Russia forces having more success in south of #Ukraine️

Also notes that #Russia still has superior numbers-"I don't think we should underestimate that"
"We have anecdotal reports that at places and at times the #Russia|ns have not recovered their dead" per senior US defense official

But official says US cannot assess whether that is "wholesale" Russian tactic/decision
US has "continued to flow things into #Ukraine...14 other nations have done the same thing" per senior US defense official "Thru numerous venues...on the ground"

"We haven't seen those avenues closed on threatened" per the official
MORE: Despite #Russia|n efforts to recruit mercenaries from #Syria, US not seeing evidence Syrian fighters have actually arrived in #Ukraine, per senior US defense official
Russian forces not focused on #Ukraine's West yet - "We've seen no significant activity in the west of #Ukraine" from #Russia forces, per senior US defense official
"Clearly there's fighting in #Kyiv...they continue to bomb it & hit it" per senior US defense official

"The main [#Russia] advance is still stalled outside the city"
#Belarus - "We have seen no #Belarusian units inside #Ukraine" per senior US defense official

Also says no indications Belarus is preparing to send units in
#Russia-"We still believe that they want to seal off the eastern part of the country, to fix Ukrainian forces there" so help cannot be sent to #Kyiv, per senior US defense official

But official notes Russians have not been able to take #Kharkiv yet ...
NEW: Vast majority of #Russia|n airpower "still available for use" per senior US defense official

No indications #Putin feeling need to send in air reinforcements from other parts of #Russia
US assistance to #Ukraine - "We continue to deliver on the security assistance package over the course of the weekend" per senior US defense official
NEW: "It appears as though the #Russia|ns are increasing their use of long-range fires to supplement of to make up for the lack of ground movement that they have had & the lack of air superiority" per senior US defense official
#Russia long range strikes vs #Ukraine-"We do assess that these strikes are hitting civilian targets, civilian infrastructure, residential areas" per sr defense official

"We can't assess w/specificity how much of those strikes...are deliberate"
"Clearly it's happening. It's happening at a greater rate & on a greater scale" per senior US defense official

re: #Russia long-range fires hitting civilian areas in #Ukraine

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More from @jseldin

Mar 8
HAPPENING NOW: House Intelligence Committee holds open hearing on Worldwide Threats

Testimony coming from:

@ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

@CIA Dir Bill Burns

@FBI Dir Christopher Wray

@NSAGov Dir Gen Paul Nakasone

@DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Scott Berrier
NEW: "One of the key challenges of this era is assessing how many of the various threats & trends are likely to intersect" per @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines Image
NEW: "#China remains an unparalleled priority for the intelligence community" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Next comes #Russia #Iran & #DPRK

"All 4 gvts have demonstrated the capability & intent to promote their interest in the ways that cut against US interests"
Read 74 tweets
Mar 8
Breaking: House Intel Committee posts @ODNIgov's 2022 Annual Threat Assessment, aka the Worldwide Threat Assessment

"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the #UnitedStates & its allies"
"#China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the #UnitedStates in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily & technologically—& is pushing to change global norms & potentially threatening its neighbors" per @ODNIgov report
"#Russia is pushing back against #Washington where it can—locally & globally—employing techniques up to & including the use of force" per @ODNIgov report, compiled w/info available up to January
Read 67 tweets
Mar 7
Happening now: @PentagonPresSec briefs the media... Image
Details on the 500 new US troops headed to #Europe:

KC-135 refueling aircraft w/150+ personnel to #Greece

@ 50 air support personnel to #Poland #Romania

300 personnel w/ammo support & maintenance support to #Germany

"These are purely defensive forces" per @PentagonPresSec
More from a senior defense official from earlier on new deployments from the US:

Read 19 tweets
Mar 4
NEW: US deconfliction line w/#Russia - "It's only been in place for a couple of days" per @PentagonPresSec, without saying whether it has been used yet

Earlier, a sr defense official said it had been tested Image
US-#Russia deconfliction line: "We know it works...when we tested it they did pick up on the other end" per @PentagonPresSec

Says having line is critical bcs airspace over #Ukraine contested by Russian, Ukrainian air forces and @NATO airspace could be impacted
NEW: #Russia|n ground forces are attacking town near #Odessa - US watching to see what that means for Odessa, per @PentagonPresSec
Read 12 tweets
Mar 3
NEW: US now assesses 90% of #Russia's pre-staged combat power has entered #Ukraine, per senior US defense official

"Heavy bombardment in the cities to the north & to the east...#Kyiv, #Chernihiv & #Kharkiv" per official

BUT Russian forces in the north still "largely stalled"
US unable to confirm #Kherson has been taken by #Russia, per senior US defense official

#Mariupol still holding out despite #Russia|n attempts to encircle the city, per official
"We assess the #Ukrainian air & missile defense system remains intact & remain effective" per senior US defense official

#Ukraine also able to fly its own jets as airspace over the country remains contested
Read 23 tweets
Mar 2
Happening now: @PentagonPresSec briefs the media
BREAKING: US scrapping Minuteman III nuclear missile test scheduled for this weekend "to demonstrate we are a responsible nuclear power..." per @PentagonPresSec

Says move is being made to make nothing can be misconstrued during a time of heightened tensions

#Russia-#Ukraine
#Russia convoy headed to #Kyiv & the northern push from Russia to south "has stalled" per @PentagonPresSec, saying no real progress in last 24-36 hours
Read 25 tweets

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