Breaking: House Intel Committee posts @ODNIgov's 2022 Annual Threat Assessment, aka the Worldwide Threat Assessment
"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the #UnitedStates & its allies"
"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the #UnitedStates & its allies"
"#China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the #UnitedStates in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily & technologically—& is pushing to change global norms & potentially threatening its neighbors" per @ODNIgov report
"#Russia is pushing back against #Washington where it can—locally & globally—employing techniques up to & including the use of force" per @ODNIgov report, compiled w/info available up to January
"#Iran will remain a regional menace w/broader malign influence activities, & #NorthKorea will expand its #WMD capabilities while being a disruptive player on the regional & world stages" per @ODNIgov Threat Assessment
#COVID19-"The lingering effects...will continue to strain governments & societies, fueling humanitarian & economic crises, political unrest, & geopolitical competition" per @ODNIgov report
#COVID19-"Low-income countries with high debts face particularly challenging recoveries and the potential for cascading crises leading to regional instability" warns @ODNIgov threat report
#ClimateChange-"Ecological degradation & a changing climate will continue to fuel disease outbreaks, threaten food and water security, & exacerbate political instability and humanitarian crises" per @ODNIgov report
More #ClimateChange-"Great power competition & disputes between wealthy and low-income nations will threaten progress on the collective action that will be needed to meet global goals for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions" per @ODNIgov threat assessment
.@ODNIgov sees "continuing potential for surges in migration from #Afghanistan, #LatinAmerica & other poor countries, which are reeling from conflict & the economic fallout of the #COVID19 pandemic" per new report
US-#immigration-" Economic and political conditions in Latin America continue to spark waves of migration that destabilize our Southern neighbors & put pressure on our #Southern border" per @ODNIgov threat assessment
Terrorism-"#ISIS #alQaida & #Iran & its militant allies will take advantage of weak governance to cont. to plot terrorist attacks against US persons & interests, including to varying degrees in the UnitedStates, & exacerbate instability in...#Africa & the MiddleEast" per @ODNIgov
#China - The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) "will work to press #Taiwan on unification, undercut U.S. influence, drive wedges between #Washington & its partners, & foster some norms that favor its authoritarian system" per @ODNIgov
"#Beijing is increasingly combining growing military power w/its economic, technological & diplomatic clout" per @ODNIgov assessment
"#China faces myriad—& in some cases growing—domestic & int'l challenges that probably will hinder CCP leaders’ ambitions...aging ppltn, high levels of corporate debt, economic inequality, & growing resistance to China’s heavy-handed tactics in #Taiwan & other countries" per ODNI
#SouthChinaSea-"#Beijing will continue to use growing numbers of air, naval, & maritime law enforcement platforms to intimidate rival claimants" per @ODNIgov "#China is similarly pressuring #Japan over contested areas in the #EastChinaSea"
#BeltandRoad-"#Beijing will adjust its approach to BRI in response to publicity & sustainability challenges, and diversify project selection in an attempt to improve the initiative's brand & minimize int'l criticism" per @ODNIgov
"#China will remain the top threat to US technological competitiveness as #Beijing targets key sectors & proprietary commercial and military technology from US & allied companies & institutions" per @ODNIgov report
#China making plat to set global standards-"Beijing’s willingness to use espionage, subsidies & trade policy to give its firms a competitive advantage...advances Beijing's ability to assume leadership of the world's technological advancement & standards" per @ODNIgov
NEW: #China-#Russia tag teaming vs #Washington- @ODNIgov warns "China will continue deepening diplomatic, defense, & technology cooperation with Russia to challenge the #UnitedStates"
NEW: #China "accelerating the development of key capabilities it believes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) needs to confront the #UnitedStates in a large-scale, sustained conflict" per @ODNIgov
More: #China's "short-, medium-, and intermediate-range conventional systems can hold US forces & bases in the region at risk" per @ODNIgov
#Beijing's "DF-17 #hypersonic glide vehicle-capable medium-range ballistic missile...could challenge US missile defense systems"
#Beijing's "DF-17 #hypersonic glide vehicle-capable medium-range ballistic missile...could challenge US missile defense systems"
More: "#China conducted a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) flight test that flew completely around the world and impacted inside China" per @ODNIgov
#China likely a no-go on arms control
"#Beijing is not interested in agreements that restrict its plans & will not agree to negotiations that lock in US or #Russia|n advantages" per @ODNIgov report
"#Beijing is not interested in agreements that restrict its plans & will not agree to negotiations that lock in US or #Russia|n advantages" per @ODNIgov report
#China space threat-"Counterspace operations will be integral to potential military campaigns by the PLA, and China has counterspace-weapons capabilities intended to target US & allied satellites" per @ODNIgov
#China #cyber threat-"We assess that #China presents the broadest, most active, & persistent cyber espionage threat to US Government & private sector networks" per @ODNIgov
"#China’s #cyber pursuits & export of related technologies increase the threats of attacks against the US homeland, suppression of US web content...& the expansion of technology-driven authoritarianism globally" per @ODNIgov
NEW: @ODNIgov warns "#China almost certainly is capable of launching cyber attacks that would disrupt critical infrastructure services within the #UnitedStates, including against oil & gas pipelines & rail systems"
#China influence ops-"China is attempting to exploit doubts about US leadership, undermine democracy & extend #Beijing’s influence, especially in #EastAsia & the western #Pacific" per @ODNIgov
"...continue spreading #COVID19 misinformation ...while casting blame on the West"
"...continue spreading #COVID19 misinformation ...while casting blame on the West"
#China learning from #Russia
"Beijing probably is reviewing publicly disclosed Russian influence operations & gaining experience from operations that use social media & other technologies against societies in #Asia & elsewhere" per @ODNIgov
"Beijing probably is reviewing publicly disclosed Russian influence operations & gaining experience from operations that use social media & other technologies against societies in #Asia & elsewhere" per @ODNIgov
More: @ODNIgov warns #China "intensifying efforts to mold US public discourse, pressure perceived political
opponents & muffle criticism on...religious freedom, suppression of democracy in #HongKong, & oppression of the #Uyghurs as well as other minorities"
opponents & muffle criticism on...religious freedom, suppression of democracy in #HongKong, & oppression of the #Uyghurs as well as other minorities"
#Russia - the @ODNIgov threat assessment, compiled before he invasion of #Ukraine, warns #Moscow "will continue to pursue its interests in competitive & sometimes confrontational & provocative ways, including pressing to dominate Ukraine & other countries in its “near-abroad”"
.@ODNIgov report-written in January- assessed "#Russia does not want a direct conflict with US forces"
It also assessed "Russia seeks...US recognition of Russia’s claimed sphere of influence over much of the former #SovietUnion"
It also assessed "Russia seeks...US recognition of Russia’s claimed sphere of influence over much of the former #SovietUnion"
US intel, as of January, assessed #Moscow would "insert itself into crises when Russia’s interests are at stake, the anticipated costs of action are low, or it sees an opportunity to capitalize on a power vacuum" per @ODNIgov report
#Russia wielding corruption s a weapon/tool per @ODNIgov "to help develop networks of patronage in countries, including #Hungary, #Bulgaria, #Slovakia & #Ukraine" per January's assessment
#Russia's military capabilities-"#Moscow has the wherewithal to deploy forces in strategically important regions, but the farther it deploys from Russia, the less able it probably will be to sustain intensive combat operations" per @ODNIgov January assessment
NEW: #China is growing its capabilities but @ODNIgov warns "#Russia will remain the largest & most capable #WMD rival to the #UnitedStates for the foreseeable future as it expands and modernizes its nuclear weapons capabilities..."
#Russia's #cyber strategy-"Russia views cyber disruptions as a foreign policy lever to shape other countries’ decisions, as well as a deterrence & military tool" per @ODNIgov report
More #Russia-#cyber: #Moscow "focused on improving its ability to target critical infrastructure, inclu. underwater cables & industrial control systems...compromising such infrastructure improves &demonstrates its ability to damage infrastructure during a crisis" per @ODNIgov
#Russia's influence operations: "Russia presents one of the most serious foreign influence threats to the #UnitedStates, using its intelligence services, proxies, & wide-ranging influence tools to try to divide Western alliances, & increase its sway" per @ODNIgov
"#Russia & its influence actors are adept at capitalizing on current events in the #UnitedStates to push #Moscow-friendly positions to Western audiences" pr @ODNIgov
Beware #Russia|n influencers-US intel warns #Russia "will try to strengthen ties to US persons in the media & politics in hopes of developing vectors for future influence operations" per @ODNIgov assessment
More here from @VOANews: voanews.com/a/russia-s-vau…
More here from @VOANews: voanews.com/a/russia-s-vau…
#Russia|n threats in space-"Russia continues to train its military space elements & field new anti-satellite weapons to disrupt and degrade US & allied space capabilities" per @ODNIgov threat assessment
More: #Russia "developing, testing & fielding an array of nondestructive & destructive counterspace weapons—including jamming & cyberspace capabilities, directed energy weapons, on-orbit capabilities, & ground-based ASAT capabilities" per @ODNIgov
NEW: @ODNIgov assessment warns #Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei is "invigorated"
Khamenei again focused on "molding Iran into a pan-Islamic power capable of defending global Muslim causes while tightening its theocratic rule at home"
Khamenei again focused on "molding Iran into a pan-Islamic power capable of defending global Muslim causes while tightening its theocratic rule at home"
New: "#Iran will threaten US persons directly & via proxy attacks, particularly in the #MiddleEast" warns @ODNIgov
"Iran also remains committed to developing networks inside the United States"
"Iran also remains committed to developing networks inside the United States"
#Iran-#Israel: "Iran remains a threat to Israel, both directly through its missile forces & indirectly through its support of Lebanese #Hezbollah & other terrorist groups" per @ODNIgov assessment
#Iran military-"Despite Iran’s economic challenges, #Tehran will seek to improve & acquire new conventional weaponry" per @ODNIgov
"#Iran’s ballistic missile programs...continue to pose a threat to countries across the #MiddleEast" per @ODNIgov "Iran’s work on a space launch vehicle...shortens the timeline to an ICBM bcs SLVs & ICBMs use similar technologies, if it decided to develop one"
NEW: US intel believes #Iran "not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device" per @ODNIgov assessment
MORE: @ODNIgov says #Iran did resume "some activities that exceed #JCPOA limits" in July 2019 & that #Tehran "continues to increase the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA limits"
"#Iran continues to ignore restrictions on advanced centrifuge research & development & continues #uranium enrichment operations at the deeply buried #Fordow facility" per @ODNIgov
#Iran-#cyber: #Tehran's "opportunistic approach to cyber attacks makes critical infrastructure owners in the #UnitedStates susceptible to being targeted" per @ODNIgov
Assessment further warns #Iran behind 2020 cyber attacks vs #Israel|i water facilities
Assessment further warns #Iran behind 2020 cyber attacks vs #Israel|i water facilities
#NorthKorea: No signs Kim Jong Un is done w/his nuclear saber-rattling
"He probably does not view the current level of pressure on his regime, the economic hardships resulting from sanctions & his domestic #COVID19 countermeasures as enough to require a fundamental change..."
"He probably does not view the current level of pressure on his regime, the economic hardships resulting from sanctions & his domestic #COVID19 countermeasures as enough to require a fundamental change..."
More: US intel assesses #DPRK/Kim is looking for both "prestige as a nuclear power as well as strategic dominance over #SouthKorea" per @ODNIgov report
#DPRK military continuing to invest in "niche capabilities that will provide Kim w/a range of options to deter outside intervention, offset enduring deficiencies in the country’s conventional forces & coercively advance his political objectives" per @ODNIgov
#NorthKorea #hypersonic weapons?
@ODNIgov assessment notes #DPRK has claimed 3 such tests but the report does not confirm them
@ODNIgov assessment notes #DPRK has claimed 3 such tests but the report does not confirm them
#NorthKorea nukes - #Pyongyang "maintains its plutonium program & probably is expanding it uranium enrichment program" per @ODNIgov assessment
#NorthKorea-#cyber threat - @ODNIgov warns "#Pyongyang is well positioned to conduct surprise cyber attacks given its stealth and history of bold action"
"...probably possesses the expertise to cause temporary, limited disruptions of some critical [US] infrastructure networks"
"...probably possesses the expertise to cause temporary, limited disruptions of some critical [US] infrastructure networks"
US intel on #COVID19 - "COVID-19 is likely to continue to strain health systems and create conditions that could facilitate the spread of other infectious diseases globally" per @ODNIgov
#COVID19-#migration-"Eased COVID-19-related travel restrictions & perceptions of greater job opportunities in a recovering US economy are contributing to a rise in migration" per @ODNIgov
#ISIS: @ODNIgov assesses the terror group's leaders "remain committed to their vision of building a self-styled global caliphate headquartered in #Iraq & #Syria...working to rebuild capabilities & wear down opponents until conditions are ripe for seizing & holding territory"
#ISIS-#Khorasan in #Afghanistan "attempting to exploit an influx of funds & personnel from prison breaks to undermine the #Taliban & build an external attack capability if it can withstand Taliban pressure" per @ODNIgov report
#alQaida has suffered leadership/battlefield setbacks, per @ODNIgov assessment
AQ "is constrained in its efforts to lead a unified global movement, but it will try to maintain its presence in #Afghanistan & capitalize on permissive operating environments"
AQ "is constrained in its efforts to lead a unified global movement, but it will try to maintain its presence in #Afghanistan & capitalize on permissive operating environments"
#alQaida intent on attacks US homeland but "it is more capable of striking U.S. interests in the regions where its affiliates operate" per @ODNIgov
#Yemen #Somalia #WestAfrica
#Yemen #Somalia #WestAfrica
NEW: "#alQaida senior leaders lack an operational presence in #Afghanistan & the group’s affiliate, alQaida in the Indian Subcontinent (#AQIS) is weak" per @ODNIgov
Foreign Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists /white supremacists / neo-Nazis - "Xenophobic sentiments have prompted an increasing number of individuals to engage with foreign REMVE groups in #Europe" per @ODNIgov report
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