Thread by @jseldin

HAPPENING NOW: House Intelligence Committee holds open hearing on Worldwide Threats

Testimony coming from:

@ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

@CIA Dir Bill Burns

@FBI Dir Christopher Wray

@NSAGov Dir Gen Paul Nakasone

@DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Scott Berrier

NEW: "One of the key challenges of this era is assessing how many of the various threats & trends are likely to intersect" per @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

NEW: "#China remains an unparalleled priority for the intelligence community" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Next comes #Russia #Iran & #DPRK

"All 4 gvts have demonstrated the capability & intent to promote their interest in the ways that cut against US interests"

#China "is coming ever closer to becoming a peer competitor in areas of relevance to nat'l security" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"...pushing to revise global norms & institutions to its advantage" w/ a whole of gvt approach

NEW: "President Xi Jinping & #Chian's other leaders are determined to force unification w/#Taiwan under #Beijing's terms" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"China would prefer coerced unification that avoids armed conflict & it has been stepping up diplomatic, economic, military pressure"

NEW: "#Beijing is preparing to use military force if it decides it is necessary" per @ODNIgov's Haines on #Taiwan

#China engaged in "the largest ever nuclear force expansion & arsenal diversification in its history...working to match or exceed US capabilities in space & present the broadest, most active & persistent #cyber espionage threat" per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: #Russia "a significant focus right now" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Invasion of #Ukraine "has produced a shock to the geopolitical order w/implications for the future that we are only beginning to understand, but are sure to be consequential"

#Russia invasion of #Ukraine "has proceeded consistent w/the plan we assessed the Russian military would follow" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"Only they are facing significantly more resistance from Ukrainians than they expected & experiencing significant military shortcomings"

"#Russia's failure to rapidly seize #Kyiv &overwhelm Ukrainian forces has deprived #Moscow of the quick military victory that probably had originally expected would prevent the #UnitedStates& @NATO from being able to provide meaningful military aid to Ukraine" per DNI Haines

NEW: "We assess #Moscow underestimated the strength of #Ukraine's resistance & the degree of internal military we are observing, which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues & considerable logistical issues" per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: "What is unclear at this stage is whether #Russia will continue to pursue a maximalist plans to capture all or most of #Ukraine, which we assess would require more resources even as the Russian military has begun to loosen its rules of engagement" per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: "If they pursue the maximalist plan, we judge it will be especially challenging for the #Russia|ns to hold & control #Ukrainian territory & install a sustainable pro-Russian regime" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Predicts a "persistent & significant" #Ukraine insurgency

.@ODNIgov assess #Russia, #Ukraine militaries "have probably suffered thousands of casualties, per Haines

"Russian forces are at the very least operating w/the reckless disregard for the safety of non-combatants"

NEW: "The IC [intelligence community] is engaged across the interagency to document & hold #Russia & Russian actors accountable for their actions" per @ODNIgov's Haines

US intel sees economic sanction having "cascading effects" on #Russia's economy, per @ODNIgov's Haines

Western & @NATO unity, provision of lethal aid from #Europe|an countries, "almost certainly surprised #Moscow" per per @ODNIgov's Haines

"While #Putin probably anticipated many of the current sanctions...we judge he did not anticipate the either degree to which the UnitedStates & its allies & partners would take steps to undermine his capacity to mitigate Western actions..." per @ODNIgov's Haines

"...or the pullback from #Russia initiated by non-state actors in the pvt sector" per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: "Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks & instead may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve #Ukrainian disarmament & neutrality to prevent it from further integrating w/the US and @NATO" per @ODNIgov's Haines

NEW: "#Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference & perceives this is a war [#Ukraine] hat he cannot afford to lose" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"What he [#Putin] might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time may change given the significant costs he is incurring" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"Putin's nuclear saber-rattling is very much in line w/this assessment"

NEW: #Russia #Putin decision to put nuclear forces on high alert "extremely unusual" per @ODNIgov's Haines, saying it is the 1st such public announcement of the sort since the 1960s...

"...But we also have not observed force-wide nuclear posture changes hat go beyond what we have seen in prior moment os heightened tensions during the last few decades" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Putin's nuclear posturing "probably intended to deter the West from providing additional support to #Ukraine as he weighs an escalation of the conflict per @ODNIgov's Haines

Haines adds Putin likely still confident "that #Russia can military defeat Ukraine"

NEW: #Russia-"With tensions this high there is always an enhanced potential for miscalculation, unintended escalation which we hope our intelligence can help to mitigate" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Threats from transnational issues vs nation-states threats" are more complex,require multilateral collaboration" per @ODNIgov's Haines "All of them pose a set of choices that will be more difficult to untangle & ill perhaps require more sacrifice to bring about meaningful change"

In #Africa "the growing overlap btw terrorism, criminal activity, smuggling networks, has undermined stability, contributed to coups & an erosion of democracy & resulted in countries turning to #Russia|n entities to help manage these problems" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Africa "probably will see new bouts of conflict in the coming years as the region becomes strained by a volatile mixture of democratic backsliding, intercommunal violence & the continued threat of cross-border terrorism" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"We have seen in our approach to the threat to #Ukraine, the sharing of intelligence & analysis has paid real dividends" per @ODNIgov's Haines

"#Putin is determined to dominate & control #Ukraine, to shape its orientation" per @CIA Dir William Burns

"He's been stewing in a combustable combination of grievance & ambition for many years" Burns says, calling Ukraine "a matter of deep personal conviction for Putin

#Putin "He has created a system in which his own circle of advisors is narrower & narrower" per @CIA's Burns

"#COVID has made that even narrower" he says "& it's a system in which it's not proven career enhancing for ppl to question or challenge his judgment"

#Russia's #Putin "has gone to war on the basis ...of a number of assumptions which led him to believe that he faced, that Russia faced a favorable landscape" vs #Ukraine" per @CIA's Burns

#Russia's #Putin "He's been proven wrong on every count" per @CIA's Burns "Those assumptions have proven to be profoundly flawed over the last 12 days"

#Russia's plan in #Ukraine called for seizing #Kyiv within the 1st 2 days, per @CIA's Burns

"After nearly 2 weeks they still have not been able to fully encircle the city"

"#Putin has commented privately & publicly over the years that he doesn't believe #Ukraine's a real country. he's dead wrong about that" per @CIA's Burns "Real countries fight back & that's what the Ukrainians have done"

#Putin war in #Ukraine - "He has no sustainable political endgame" warns @CIA's Burns

#Russia|n military casualties in #Ukraine "far in excess of what he [#Putin] anticipated" per @CIA's Burns

#Russia|n army, "They had a bad plan" per @DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Scott Berrier "Their logistical support is not what it needs to be to develop the situation they wanted"

Low confidence assessment: 2,000-4,000 Russian troops killed so far

.@RepAdamSchiff: "How does this end?"

@CIA's Burns: "That's the core question...I fail to see & our analysts fail to see how he could sustain a puppet regime" in #Ukraine

NEW: @CIA Dir Burns tells lawmakers "In many ways, it's been #Putin's aggression going back to 2014 in #Crimea that's created the string sense of #Ukrainian nationhood & sovereignty"

NEW: @CIA Dir Burns predicts "an ugly next few weeks" in #Ukraine, in which #Putin "doubles down w/scant regard for civilian casualties"

"The 1 thing I'm absolutely convinced of & our analysts across the intelligence community are absolutely convinced of is the Ukrainians are going to continue resist fiercely & effectively" per @CIA Dir Burns

#Russia-#cyber: "We're very concerned abt the risk of spillover effect" per @FBI Dir Christopher Wray "even if the Russian think they have carefully calibrated some form of malicious cyber activity..they've shown a history of not being able to manage the effects of it"

#Putin decision to put #Russia|n nuke forces on heightened alert "was very unusual" per @ODNIgov's Haines "We obviously take it ver seriously"

"But we do think...that he [#Putin] is effectively signaling...using his nuclear forces as a way to say this could escalate & therefore @NATO should not get involved" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Russia nuclear forces - "We're watching very closely for movements" per per @ODNIgov's Haines "We're not seeing anything at this stage that indicates he is doing something different than he has done in the past"

"#Russian doctrine holds that you escalate to deescalate" per @CIA's Burns "So I think the risk would rise according to that doctrine ... in a direct military conflict btw @NATO & #Russia"

"When he [#Putin] says something we should listen very, very carefully-maybe take him at his word" per @DefenseIntel's LtGen Berrier

Putin convinced he has an asymmetric advantage vs US

#JCPOA -#Iran-"We always have to be mindful of the fact that the threat this Iranian regime poses is not only about the nuclear issue or even the missile issue" per @CIA's Burns "It's also a threat to our interests across the #MiddleEats, a threat to our partners..."

"#Russia & Pres. Putin are promoting a particular narrative about what they are doing" per @ODNIgov's Haines "We've been able to expose that narrative as false"

re: #Ukraine

"We're going to continue to see them [#Russia] spinning narratives that are false & we hopefully can provide some credible voice of what is actually happening" per @ODNIgov's Haines "That's both for the domestic population but that's also for the int'l audience"

NEW: "We have no higher priority as an agency right now than providing all the support we can to the #Ukrainians" per @CIA's Burns

"The work that we've done-& it's not without risk as an intelligence community-to declassify information-has been very effective"

"We've done intensive intelligence sharing &we continue to w/the Ukrainians, including when I saw Pres. Zelenskyy in January in #Kyiv" pr @CIA's Burns

"We shared w/him intelligence we had at the time abt some of the most graphic,concerning detail of #Russia|n planning abt Kyiv"

#Russia|n allegations of chemical attacks in the #Donbas-"That just gives you a flavor of the kinds of things they could easily try to fabricate, particularly as they get more deperate" per @CIA's Burns on #flaseflag ops

US intel community still trying to recruit/build expertise on subject of bioweapons, health threats, per @ODNIgov Dir Haines

#Russia support for grassroots US movements- "We do see foreign malign influence efforts to support particular groups within the #UnitedStates" per @ODNIgov's Haines

#Russia support for grassroots US movements-"It does continue to be a phenomena. We shud expect it to continue to be a threat" per @FBI's Wray, adding adversaries other than #Russia "takin a page out of the same playbook"

More from @FBI's Wray: "We're aggressively investigating foreign intelligence services, their proxies, their social media accounts, things like that, & if that then turns out to manifest in activity here, then we're going after it that way..."

"We are not & we don't intend to be the speech or truth police' per @FBI's Wray

Wray says @FBI has worked with #Ukraine & social media companies during the #Russia|n invasion - "to take down fake Russian accounts that are spreading #Ukrainian military disinformation"

#Russia-#China cooperation: "There's a limit to which it will go" per @ODNIgov's Haines

As for current crisis in #Ukraine, "It's not quite clear exactly how it will effect the trajectory of the [Russia-China] relationship"

#China-"It does seem as if they are potentially paying a price for not criticizing #Russia' per @ODNIgov's Haines "That may have an impact on the trajectory..."

NEW: "President Xi and the Chinese leadership are a little unsettled by what they're seeing in #Ukraine" per @CIA's Burns "They did not anticipate the significant difficulties the #Russia|ns are running into...they're unsettled by the repetitional damage"

#China also "unsettled" by potential impact of #Russia war in #Ukraine on their economy & "by the way in which Vladimir Putin has driven Europeans and Americans closer together" per @CIA's Burns

"#Taiwan & #Ukraine are 2 different things completely" per @DefenseIntel chief LtGen Berrier

"Our deterrence posture in the Pacific puts a very different perspective on all of this"

#Iran access to more cash - "if they get more funding I think the threat becomes eve worse" per @DefenseIntel's LtGen Berrier

"The Iranians have done remarkably well given the resource constraints that they're under w/the development of ballistic missiles...aerial vehicles"

Asked by @RepSwalwell if #Russia's #Putin is a "savvy genius" or a "ruthless tyrant", @CIA Dir Burns says "I think ruthless tyrant comes much closer to the mark"

#Russia's oligarchs "an important part" or #Putin's power base, per @FBI's Wray

"We're working aggressively...to try to hold oligarchs accountable" he says, including criminal charges, legal seizures of assets/money

"Whatever we can lawfully seize, we're going to go after" per @FBI's Wray on #Russia's oligarchs

#Putin's views "have hardened" per @CIA's Burns

"I think he's far more insulated from other points of view...That doesn't make him crazy but it makes him extremely difficult to deal with bcs of the hardening of hi views over time & he narrowing of his inner cricle"

Give #Kremlin control of #Russian media, "It's going to take time for ppl to absorb the consequences of the choices that he's [#Putin's] made personally" per @CIA's Burns

Funerals of Russian soldiers "clearly going to have an impact over time" re #Ukraine

"You also see in relatively small numbers but a lot fo courageous #Russia|ns out on the street protesting" per @CIA's Burns "13,000 to 14,000 thousand have been arrested since then which is not a small thing in a deeply repressive society like Russia"

In #Kyiv-supplies of food, water: "With supplies being cut off it will become somewhat desperate in what I would say, 10 days to 2 weeks" per @DefenseIntel's LtGen Berrier

#Ukraine

Will #Putin stop at #Ukraine?

"I think that's that makes it more important than ever to demonstrate he's not going to succeed" per @CIA's Burns "That's what the challenge is for all of us...This is on of those pivotal points where we &all of our allies &partners need to act..."

NEW: US has tracked 3-4 #Russia #cyber attack in #Ukraine, per @CYBERCOM_DIRNSA

"In terms of why they haven't done more...that's some of the work that the Ukrainians have done, the challenges that the Russians have encountered"

"It has not been what we would have anticipated"