The flood of foreign Govt visitors post-Ukraine, suggests, that they are finally trying to understand #India & #GOI #policy from the "horses mouth" (instead of seeing it through the biases of neo-colonialists and their Indian agents).
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1508365497011929090
3/IFP #Japan #Kishida visithttps://mea.gov.in/incoming-visit-detail.htm?34991/IndiaJapan+Summit+Joint+Statement+Partnership+for+a+Peaceful+Stable+and+Prosperous+PostCOVID+World
5/ifp Overview: Flurry of post-Ukraine diplomacy 
6/fp #USA, crnt #1 prtnr, is the #Future (Econ, FDI, Trd, high-tech, P2P), #Russia is the #Past [public hasn’t forgoten Russia never acted agnst India(post nuke+missile tech to PRC); USA supported Pakistan (weapons,1971 genocide) & China (1980-2004); sanctioned India (1975-2004)]
https://twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1508962897812197383
7/fp Credibility is critical for Future
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1509000200622383109
8/fp Current & future foreign policy, also depends on #Trust in #USA, #QUAD members #Australia & #Japan, #Russia etc
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1508999617131728896
9/ifp Direct #Neighbourhood #Outreach continues in parallel (#Infrastructure, #Connectivity)
https://twitter.com/InsightGL/status/1509001430589489153
10/ifp #BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka,
Thailand economic cooperation taking new strides)
Thailand economic cooperation taking new strides)
https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1509027688333602818
11/ifp Refer to first tweet 👆🏼in our 🧵and then read 👇🏽carefully
https://twitter.com/the_hindu/status/1509042325577953280
12/ifp A tad over-optimistic perhaps? I agree there are unrecognised silver linings, but do all the silver linings together outweigh the dark clouds on a net basis? foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/30/ind…
13/ifp Ukraine provides a Golden opportunity to educate #Europe about the terrorist threats & aggression India has been facing for half a century from two nuclear armed neighbours & collaborators
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1509384475201146880
14/ifp A worthy objective. Let’s start with quick conclusion of a UK-India FTA/CEPA after India-Australia is done. Another way is for UK to help & promote #AtmanNirbhar #Defence #Production, which will naturally/seamlessly reduce Indian dependence on Low-med tech Russia imports
https://twitter.com/sreemoytalukdar/status/1509394952224083971
15/ifp Unless US analysts+media+politicians understand how #Colonialism affected Indian mind, & how USA+UK’s support for Pakistani #Jehad, #genocide & #religious #cleansing (1947-2005), put #neocolonial salt into Indian’s mental wounds, identity of views on WorldOrder is unlikely
16/ifp Clear statement of #India’s position on #Ukraine ( to the Russian MFA )
https://twitter.com/dperi84/status/1509861176087572482
17/ifp PM "early cessation of violence"
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1509886202664882181
18/ifp The #Bipolar #World with a #Multipolar #Rim (2020-35) will gradually evolve into a #Tripolar #World with #multipolar #Rim by 2050, if we find a good answer to this👇🏽question. bit.ly/3NLfnts
19/ifp "Neighborhood first" #Nepal
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1510203171011932162
21/ifp Well put; 2 pts would strengthen argument (1)#India is repeatedly paying price of #US sanctions(eg Venuzela & Iran), in higher oil prices(which act as frgn tax on Indian GDP), (2) India doesn’t hv to take sides publicly, it can do so thru bilateral #actions which chng #BOP
22/ifp PM #Nehru used to be accused by the Western Bloc of #moralistic #lecturing(NAM & UN), & #hypocricy. It seems that positions have reversed; A more “market competitive”, “geopolitically confident”, #India is being 😇lectured by same bloc on #morality & “global democracy.”
23/ifp Independent India’s history began 75 years ago and a few foreign policy experts, have not only read it, but can quote it👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
PM Nehru: “India is not in the business of condemnation, but on building the conditions for a resolution”
PM Nehru: “India is not in the business of condemnation, but on building the conditions for a resolution”
https://twitter.com/suhasinih/status/1510887201437286405
24/ifp I disagree with view, #Russia is 3rd pole in int system. It’s used oil/gas/natural resources to rebuild/develop its military power & strategic technology. But its economic power is too limited to sustain great power status. Imperial overstretch in Ukr will end the illusion
25/ifp #India’s World view ( circa 2022), explained by former Foreign secretary & National Security advisor, @ShivshankaMenon (Incidentally, the quality of foreign policy analysis, is far superior to any Western analysis of Asia)
https://twitter.com/ShivshankaMenon/status/1510932839986233345
24/ifp I am sure that enough mutual trust has been established between members of the #QUAD, that they can now speak frankly & confidentially with each other w/o everything becoming public: timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rajnath-…
Simple Analogy: Such a pyramid of power is stable & sustainable over time & has the highest benefit-cost ratio in exercise of power. A Cylinder may be effective for limited use of power but can shrink at base with over-use, an inverted pyramid is unstable.
26/ifp Its a puzzle why 90% of US experts don't understand that higher the ratio of #India's GDP to China's, the more the financial burden of deterring PRC, can & will be taken by 🇮🇳. It's in US interest to accelerate the gap closing thru an #ECTA like the Australia-India one.
27/ifp India’s official statement on civilian killings in Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1511378698691543044
26/ifp India’s economic power will be increased in the next 15 years, by sustained fast PcGDP growth (fueled by policy reforms), and elimination of middle income poverty 👇🏽(growth+institutional reform) : imf.org/en/Publication…
28/ifp #CCP/#PRC/#China will only win if we believe its information war and let it win. The Quad + EU + UK can ensure it does not win the #GreyWar or the #HybridWar, by eliminating the rents it extracts from the free world through its asymmetric policies: newstatesman.com/international-…
29/ifp #Foreign #policy is about #National #Interests: Expanding the areas of convergence, minimising the areas of divergence and managing the areas of disagreement 🧵
https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1512457299146809353
30/ifp Any discussion of cntry X or Y helping India if China attacks us, must define (1) What kind of help would we want in 3 areas- Economic military & diplomatic, (2) What capability do X & Y have to supply it, (3) Willingness/likelihood of X/Y giving the help specified in (2)
31/ifp Diplomatically there is a very high probability that USA will support India in UNSC, while Russia will abstain. USA has enormous economic capability while Russia has little so substantial financial help can only come from USA little/none from Russia. Militarily..32/ifp
32/ifp Military: Russia will likely continue to supply committed spares, equipment etc to both China & India, but likely be neutral wrt emergency supplies(ie supply both or neither). USA will be willing for emergency supply any/all US equipment in its inventory we ask for…33/ifp
33/ifp USA is also very likely to make its formidable C3ISR services available for our use, in the event of PRC aggression against India & consequent hot war. Russia doesn’t have comparable capabilities in our region and is highly unlikely to offend China by trying to do so!
34/ifp #India’s #Foreign #Policy: (1) Define India’s #Interests (eg wrt #SoftPower), (2) Translate them into specific #goals (eg International Ayush center), (3) Make Tactical #plan to achieve it.
Read this 🧵to learn about successful foreign policy
Read this 🧵to learn about successful foreign policy
https://twitter.com/over2shailaja/status/1516444260480208898
35/ifp #IFP101 (1) India a civilizational state, was in top 3 economy in world for millinea, will be again-2050, (2) We've been ruled by foreign colonialists for centuries; Never Again. (3) We want closest LT relations with USA, as 21stC, equal partner, not 19C, 2nd class, ally!
36/ifp *20C, 2nd class, ally
37/ifp #Autonomy = "freedom from external control or influence; independence." #Strategic #autonomy = Freedom to make decisions about (National security/foreign policy) #Strategy, autonomously; ie without pressure/threat from any country [Why is this so difficult to understand?]
38/ifp Seems like USG (🧵) is beginning to understand where GOI is coming from; but the Europeanist, US Foreign policy elite, has a long distance to traverse before attaining the same level of understanding!
https://twitter.com/fbermingham/status/1517140915072094209
39/ifp Emerging #US-#India understanding: “Mutual sensitivity to & mutual support for, #core #interests of #India & #USA; freedom to follow own foreign policy on matters beyond these core interests.” [Core interests wrt PRC r virtually identical, benefit/cost of policies differ]
40/ifp UK was the largest supplier of weapons after independence, but gradually went done to virtually zero. As credibility & mutual confidence is restored, UK could become a competitive & significant supplier of defence #technology & weapon sub-systems (SSNs, ACs?)
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1517364404362235906
41/ifp According to @suhasinih, the CIA director & Canadian counterpart could not attend because of scheduling problems
https://twitter.com/the_hindu/status/1518049609574240258
42/ifp #Neighbourhood #policy going into high gear (2020-22), with multiple connectivity initiative and “all of Govt approach”👍🏽@harshvshringla
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1518475427395739648
43/ifp India FP - Concentric circles of interest: Neighbourhood is the innermost circles (C1)
https://twitter.com/Geeta_Mohan/status/1519279543953022977
2/pop #Soft #Power includes diplomatic ability, ability to influence the global narrative, control the international information space, NGOs working in other countries, ability to influence foreign academia & think tanks, besides purely cultural influence!
45/ifp I would commend this excellent analysis of a specific US foreign policy in action, as a lesson in how to deal with specific cntrys (attention FP academics, experts, media). It also provides hints of how to deal with #IW in/by #USA: warontherocks.com/2022/04/can-yo…
46/ifp GOI loans to friendly developing countries are transparent, & accountable to Parliament, PRC’s BRI loan terms are largely secret and at the whims of the #CCP.
https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1522927759697539072
47/ifp Xi’s post-2020 approach to India seems to be aggressive version of old 1; ie creeping acquisition/salami spicing, building-up Pakistan as a proxy to divert Indian defence resources, & creating divides btwn S Asian leaders/public & India (+more forces/weapons in Tibet)🧵
https://twitter.com/dravirmani/status/1523629678715498500
48/ifp This 🧵(+ reference at end of thread), may help those who don’t have time to follow China very deeply/broadly, understand the #PRC/#CCP approach to #India, which India’s foreign policy is responding to!
https://twitter.com/dravirmani/status/1523629678715498500
49/ifp New #PRC approach is more aggressive version of old; Don’t make India formal enemy👇🏽, no formal border sln, SalamiSlice when distracted, no formal border sln, troops stay in Tibet, Pakistan as proxy, stoke anti-India feeling in S Asia, sweet talk at BRICS/RIC, more trd def
https://twitter.com/ETDefence/status/1525204089256165376
49b/ifp New #PRC approach is more aggressive version of old; Don’t make India formal enemy👇🏽, Salami Slice when distracted, no formal border sln, troops stay in Tibet, Pakistan as proxy, stoke anti-India feeling in S Asia, sweet talk at BRICS/RIC, raise trade surplus/dependence
50/irp Eight point summary of principles underlying #India’s #Foreign #policy:
https://twitter.com/DrSJaishankar/status/1527279417826758663
51/ifp A new goal for Indian Foreign policy & national security establishment: Convince USA & EU to promote India as a competitor to China & Russia, as a "value for money" arms supplier. 🧵
https://twitter.com/vasabjit_b/status/1527626322230489088
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