Arvind Virmani Profile picture
Mar 28 57 tweets 38 min read
The flood of foreign Govt visitors post-Ukraine, suggests, that they are finally trying to understand #India & #GOI #policy from the "horses mouth" (instead of seeing it through the biases of neo-colonialists and their Indian agents).
3/IFP #Japan #Kishida visit
5/ifp Overview: Flurry of post-Ukraine diplomacy Image
6/fp #USA, crnt #1 prtnr, is the #Future (Econ, FDI, Trd, high-tech, P2P), #Russia is the #Past [public hasn’t forgoten Russia never acted agnst India(post nuke+missile tech to PRC); USA supported Pakistan (weapons,1971 genocide) & China (1980-2004); sanctioned India (1975-2004)]
7/fp Credibility is critical for Future
8/fp Current & future foreign policy, also depends on #Trust in #USA, #QUAD members #Australia & #Japan, #Russia etc
10/ifp #BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka,
Thailand economic cooperation taking new strides)
11/ifp Refer to first tweet 👆🏼in our 🧵and then read 👇🏽carefully
12/ifp A tad over-optimistic perhaps? I agree there are unrecognised silver linings, but do all the silver linings together outweigh the dark clouds on a net basis?…
13/ifp Ukraine provides a Golden opportunity to educate #Europe about the terrorist threats & aggression India has been facing for half a century from two nuclear armed neighbours & collaborators
14/ifp A worthy objective. Let’s start with quick conclusion of a UK-India FTA/CEPA after India-Australia is done. Another way is for UK to help & promote #AtmanNirbhar #Defence #Production, which will naturally/seamlessly reduce Indian dependence on Low-med tech Russia imports
15/ifp Unless US analysts+media+politicians understand how #Colonialism affected Indian mind, & how USA+UK’s support for Pakistani #Jehad, #genocide & #religious #cleansing (1947-2005), put #neocolonial salt into Indian’s mental wounds, identity of views on WorldOrder is unlikely
16/ifp Clear statement of #India’s position on #Ukraine ( to the Russian MFA )
17/ifp PM "early cessation of violence"
18/ifp The #Bipolar #World with a #Multipolar #Rim (2020-35) will gradually evolve into a #Tripolar #World with #multipolar #Rim by 2050, if we find a good answer to this👇🏽question.
21/ifp Well put; 2 pts would strengthen argument (1)#India is repeatedly paying price of #US sanctions(eg Venuzela & Iran), in higher oil prices(which act as frgn tax on Indian GDP), (2) India doesn’t hv to take sides publicly, it can do so thru bilateral #actions which chng #BOP Image
22/ifp PM #Nehru used to be accused by the Western Bloc of #moralistic #lecturing(NAM & UN), & #hypocricy. It seems that positions have reversed; A more “market competitive”, “geopolitically confident”, #India is being 😇lectured by same bloc on #morality & “global democracy.”
23/ifp Independent India’s history began 75 years ago and a few foreign policy experts, have not only read it, but can quote it👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
PM Nehru: “India is not in the business of condemnation, but on building the conditions for a resolution”
24/ifp I disagree with view, #Russia is 3rd pole in int system. It’s used oil/gas/natural resources to rebuild/develop its military power & strategic technology. But its economic power is too limited to sustain great power status. Imperial overstretch in Ukr will end the illusion
25/ifp #India’s World view ( circa 2022), explained by former Foreign secretary & National Security advisor, @ShivshankaMenon (Incidentally, the quality of foreign policy analysis, is far superior to any Western analysis of Asia)
24/ifp I am sure that enough mutual trust has been established between members of the #QUAD, that they can now speak frankly & confidentially with each other w/o everything becoming public:…
Simple Analogy: Such a pyramid of power is stable & sustainable over time & has the highest benefit-cost ratio in exercise of power. A Cylinder may be effective for limited use of power but can shrink at base with over-use, an inverted pyramid is unstable. Image
26/ifp Its a puzzle why 90% of US experts don't understand that higher the ratio of #India's GDP to China's, the more the financial burden of deterring PRC, can & will be taken by 🇮🇳. It's in US interest to accelerate the gap closing thru an #ECTA like the Australia-India one.
27/ifp India’s official statement on civilian killings in Ukraine:
26/ifp India’s economic power will be increased in the next 15 years, by sustained fast PcGDP growth (fueled by policy reforms), and elimination of middle income poverty 👇🏽(growth+institutional reform) :…
28/ifp #CCP/#PRC/#China will only win if we believe its information war and let it win. The Quad + EU + UK can ensure it does not win the #GreyWar or the #HybridWar, by eliminating the rents it extracts from the free world through its asymmetric policies:…
29/ifp #Foreign #policy is about #National #Interests: Expanding the areas of convergence, minimising the areas of divergence and managing the areas of disagreement 🧵
30/ifp Any discussion of cntry X or Y helping India if China attacks us, must define (1) What kind of help would we want in 3 areas- Economic military & diplomatic, (2) What capability do X & Y have to supply it, (3) Willingness/likelihood of X/Y giving the help specified in (2)
31/ifp Diplomatically there is a very high probability that USA will support India in UNSC, while Russia will abstain. USA has enormous economic capability while Russia has little so substantial financial help can only come from USA little/none from Russia. Militarily..32/ifp
32/ifp Military: Russia will likely continue to supply committed spares, equipment etc to both China & India, but likely be neutral wrt emergency supplies(ie supply both or neither). USA will be willing for emergency supply any/all US equipment in its inventory we ask for…33/ifp
33/ifp USA is also very likely to make its formidable C3ISR services available for our use, in the event of PRC aggression against India & consequent hot war. Russia doesn’t have comparable capabilities in our region and is highly unlikely to offend China by trying to do so!
34/ifp #India’s #Foreign #Policy: (1) Define India’s #Interests (eg wrt #SoftPower), (2) Translate them into specific #goals (eg International Ayush center), (3) Make Tactical #plan to achieve it.
Read this 🧵to learn about successful foreign policy
35/ifp #IFP101 (1) India a civilizational state, was in top 3 economy in world for millinea, will be again-2050, (2) We've been ruled by foreign colonialists for centuries; Never Again. (3) We want closest LT relations with USA, as 21stC, equal partner, not 19C, 2nd class, ally!
36/ifp *20C, 2nd class, ally
37/ifp #Autonomy = "freedom from external control or influence; independence." #Strategic #autonomy = Freedom to make decisions about (National security/foreign policy) #Strategy, autonomously; ie without pressure/threat from any country [Why is this so difficult to understand?]
38/ifp Seems like USG (🧵) is beginning to understand where GOI is coming from; but the Europeanist, US Foreign policy elite, has a long distance to traverse before attaining the same level of understanding!
39/ifp Emerging #US-#India understanding: “Mutual sensitivity to & mutual support for, #core #interests of #India & #USA; freedom to follow own foreign policy on matters beyond these core interests.” [Core interests wrt PRC r virtually identical, benefit/cost of policies differ]
40/ifp UK was the largest supplier of weapons after independence, but gradually went done to virtually zero. As credibility & mutual confidence is restored, UK could become a competitive & significant supplier of defence #technology & weapon sub-systems (SSNs, ACs?)
41/ifp According to @suhasinih, the CIA director & Canadian counterpart could not attend because of scheduling problems
42/ifp #Neighbourhood #policy going into high gear (2020-22), with multiple connectivity initiative and “all of Govt approach”👍🏽@harshvshringla
43/ifp India FP - Concentric circles of interest: Neighbourhood is the innermost circles (C1)
2/pop #Soft #Power includes diplomatic ability, ability to influence the global narrative, control the international information space, NGOs working in other countries, ability to influence foreign academia & think tanks, besides purely cultural influence!
45/ifp I would commend this excellent analysis of a specific US foreign policy in action, as a lesson in how to deal with specific cntrys (attention FP academics, experts, media). It also provides hints of how to deal with #IW in/by #USA:…
46/ifp GOI loans to friendly developing countries are transparent, & accountable to Parliament, PRC’s BRI loan terms are largely secret and at the whims of the #CCP.
47/ifp Xi’s post-2020 approach to India seems to be aggressive version of old 1; ie creeping acquisition/salami spicing, building-up Pakistan as a proxy to divert Indian defence resources, & creating divides btwn S Asian leaders/public & India (+more forces/weapons in Tibet)🧵
48/ifp This 🧵(+ reference at end of thread), may help those who don’t have time to follow China very deeply/broadly, understand the #PRC/#CCP approach to #India, which India’s foreign policy is responding to!
49/ifp New #PRC approach is more aggressive version of old; Don’t make India formal enemy👇🏽, no formal border sln, SalamiSlice when distracted, no formal border sln, troops stay in Tibet, Pakistan as proxy, stoke anti-India feeling in S Asia, sweet talk at BRICS/RIC, more trd def
49b/ifp New #PRC approach is more aggressive version of old; Don’t make India formal enemy👇🏽, Salami Slice when distracted, no formal border sln, troops stay in Tibet, Pakistan as proxy, stoke anti-India feeling in S Asia, sweet talk at BRICS/RIC, raise trade surplus/dependence
50/irp Eight point summary of principles underlying #India’s #Foreign #policy:
51/ifp A new goal for Indian Foreign policy & national security establishment: Convince USA & EU to promote India as a competitor to China & Russia, as a "value for money" arms supplier. 🧵

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More from @dravirmani

May 31
#IndiaEcon Policy reform must be translated into simpler rules & procedures on the ground, before it translates into production efficiency, investment, job creation and productivity: Well designed & implemented reform, will reboot the economy. ..2/…
2/rfrm Badly designed reform, like original GST structure (with 10s of Cess), will Not result in greater efficiency or growth. Incomplete reform, like Labour codes, will not generate visibly more jobs, till simple rules, procedures & reporting requirements are put in place!
3/rfrm There are 2 human weakness to beware; Tendency to, (1) “rest on ones laurels” tire & leave things incomplete and/or unattended, (2) Arrogance; In a world of great uncertainty, shocks & big changes, one has to constantly learn and adapt to new threats & opportunities!
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Beware Information war by certain sections of the foreign media, including the Hong Kong based media. Sadly there are Indian media, intellectuals and experts, who get easily carried away by such mis-information, instead of expressing scepticism, while reporting it!
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Feb 24
Better late than never. We all make mistakes. The critical test will be how German policy on #China changes (not Russia policy, which is fairly predictable)
2/eu Same test for EU, 👇🏽is predictable
3/eu The lesson is applicable to India-China! Remember Military strength requires both funds and Partnerships (to get technology & advanced equipment at lowest cost)
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Feb 24
@Special relationship" is a #delusion that Indians must #shun if they are to defend their Nation against Autocratic nations which have been looking for a way to destroy them for 75 years
Make no mistake, Putin's Damocles sword is now hanging over India's head. We don't have the luxury of talking🤐, we have to plan, decide, and act!
There are only "overlapping interests," between any two countries; When the overlap gets smaller & smaller, expect foreign policies to change; don't #delude yourself about friendship, Bhai Bhai & Jigri Dosti
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Feb 23
#PIP says: “#FOE for media includes, the freedom to censor.”
#PIP says: “The fourth estate is a guarantor of our freedom and democracy, believe it or not”
3/foe And #FOE in #US also means the freedom to censor/self-censor. So Indian media meets the highest quality standards in the World 😇
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