Thread by @bctallis

What to do with a problem like #Steinmeier getting refused an invitation to #Kyiv by #Zelenskiy?

A 🧵 on why it's better for #Germany to get proactive instead of getting offended over #Ukraine.

Steinmeier being unwelcome in #Kyiv is bad.
I'm not criticising #Zelenskiy's decision (which is justified) but that it came to this is everyone's detriment.
As such, it's an important moment to reflect & consider, why it happened & what to do better.

#Steinmeier was not welcomed because of his past closeness to Putin's #Russia. He has publicly regretted this but its clear that for Kyiv apology ≠ atonement. Let's be honest the ill-judged harmony concert & FWS' spox criticism of @MelnykAndrij didn't help, BUT

A bigger problem is that the #German government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (from the same party - SPD - as Steinmeier) is not seen by #Kyiv (& many others) as having done enough to support #Ukraine.
Is that fair?

There are different views of course, but #Germany has not unequivocally endorsed #Ukraine's #EU candidacy bid; was slow to provide weapons of any kind; is seen to be dragging its feet over providing #heavyweapons; delayed the #EU ban on🇷🇺coal, & buys the most🇷🇺gas ... BUT ...

#Germany protests that it has taken big steps to support #Ukraine incl. breaking taboos on sending weapons to combat zones, providing significant financial aid over a long time & postponing #Nordstream2. AND the #Zeitenwendespeech - promising to reboot the 🇩🇪 military,

The problem is that to #Ukraine (& others) that doesn't seem enough: providing weapons is a no brainer as🇺🇦fights for #Germany's & #Europe's interests & values. NS2 should never have been started (nor NS1). #Zeitenwende is longterm & introverted (not4🇺🇦)&🇩🇪pays more4gas than aid

So #Kyiv doesn't see sufficient change in #German policy to warrant taking FWS apology as atonement. In fact, like many #CEE countries,🇺🇦 doesn't see #Germany as doing nearly enough. They don't see 🇩🇪policy as a failure but a disappointment
- because it could be so much better

Unfortunately, #Germany's initial response to the crisis (incl. in build up), an impression was created that its policy moves at the 'speed of shame'
- only reacting to extreme external pressure frm allies & failing to formulate a clear policy of its own

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1500887911843213317?s=20&t=llDR7yQZyKM7qUU7oNkYgg

This dynamic was clearly at work in the refusal to welcome #Steinmeier - not only to rebuke his past approach to #Russia & #Ukraine but to put pressure on #Scholz to take more decisive action -at a time when he was keeping a low profile despite calls from e.g. Baerbock for more.

#Zelenskiy thus seems to be trying to use the denial of #Steinmeier's visit to empower German politicians who push for stronger policy & to ⬆️pressure those who want to keep the status quo. Many in #Germany object to this in both substance & style, clashing with CEE &🇺🇦 views.

🇩🇪s feel snubbed & that their efforts are met with ingratitude & lack of respect but🇺🇦feels let down while existentially threatened & under no obligation to pursue 'their kind of diplomacy that leads to the destruction of my country' as #Zelenskiy said

Like many in #CEE,🇺🇦 sees that not only has #Germany not done enough to respond to🇷🇺's assault but that it has a clear responsibility to do more, given that its policies enabled #Putin for so long.🇩🇪s increasingly acknowledge past fault - but policy has not yet matched words.

As long as #Germany is seen to, reluctantly, do the minimum & moves mainly in response to external pressure rather than clearly setting its own course that matches its stated values-based foreign policy, & which supports🇺🇦& complements allies, it can expect shaming tactics.

This is not pleasant -but nor should it be a cause for #Germany to take silly offence - #Ukraine is fighting on the front-line of all of our freedom & facing an existential threat - anything goes to get the support they need. Instead of getting upset🇩🇪should get proactive

This won't give #Ukraine everything it wants but there is a clear interests & values case for doing much more to help🇺🇦defeat #Putin which enhances all of our security. Delivering heavyweapons - & dropping the foot dragging & 'cant-do' attitude are also clear easy wins.

An immediate #energyembargo would be best but if it can't happen then taking all possible steps toward it would be welcome. So too would a clear endorsement of #Ukraine's #EU candidacy - a very important sign of belonging & inclusion. AND ...

If #Germany does proactively make significant positive steps in the right direction, they must (& I'm sure would) be overtly welcomed by #Kyiv & by #CEEstates. There must be more recognition of what good 🇩🇪does in order to positively reinforce & drive further action.

That hasn't always been the case. While🇩🇪has been rightly criticised it hasn't been praised enough for e.g. backfilling #Slovakia's air defence systems so that🇸🇰could send its S300s to #Ukraine. Doing more like that -& sending e.g. tanks of its own to🇺🇦-would merit big praise

But, as long as German policy seems reactive, hesitant, grudging & defensive it will be open to shaming as method of pressure. This is tragic for #Germany as it burns the moral capital so hard earned since WW2

TLDR - #Germany should not get upset re #Steinmeier but should get proactive in establishing a clear & robust policy that serves its interests & values by supporting #Ukraine. If it does so this should be welcomed in #Kyiv & #CEE & wld leave🇩🇪less open to shaming as pressure.

PS- a key problem is differing perceptions-for many in #Germany that proactive policy came with the #Zeitenwende speech (however faltering since) but this has little effect on #Ukraine & what impact it does have will be medium-long-term - but 🇺🇦& #CEE need action now.