Thread by @jseldin

ICYMI: Intelligence shows "The relationship between the #Taliban & #alQaida remains close, w/the latter [alQaida] celebrating the former’s success & renewing its pledge of allegiance" per report from @UN Sanctions Monitoring Team released Friday

Intelligence from @UN members "suggest that #alQaida has a safe haven under the #Taliban & increased freedom of action" per report "[AQ leader] Ayman al-Zawahiri has issued more frequent recorded messages since August, & there is now proof of life for him as recently as Feb 2022"

#alQaida-#Taliban relationship "underscored by the presence, both in #Afghanistan & the region, of alQaida core leadership & affiliated groups, such as alQaida in the Indian Subcontinent (#AQIS)" per @UN report

"#alQaida has used the #Taliban’s takeover to attract new recruits & funding and inspire alQaida affiliates globally" per @UN report

"#Afghanistan is viewed as a friendly environment for continued occupancy"

Core #alQaida leadership under Ayman al-Zawahiri "is reported to remain in #Afghanistan: more specifically, the eastern region from #Zabul Province north towards #Kunar & along the border w/#Pakistan" per @UN report

#alQaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri videos: "The pace of recent communications suggests that he may be able to lead more effectively than was possible before the #Taliban takeover of #Afghanistan" per @UN report

Per @UN member state intelligence, #alQaida's Sayf-Al Adl [Saif al-Adel] still seen as the likely successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri, who has long been reported to be in poor health, the report says

"Adl is assessed as a capable veteran commander who could take the group forward"

#alQaida's number 2, Sayf-Al Adl [Saif al-Adel], has long been reported to be in #Iran

But @UN report finds #Taliban knows a move to #Afghanistan "would be contentious w/the int'l community" & could delay a decision "until the last possible moment"
voanews.com/a/6226492.html

#alQaida presence in #Afghanistan assessed to be in the south & east, with "a possible shift of core members to more westerly locations in #Farah & #Herat Provinces" per @UN report

"At present, the operational activities of #alQaida in #Afghanistan have been limited to advice &support to the #Taliban" per @UN report "Going forward, alQaida appears free to pursue its objectives, short of int'l attacks...hi-profile activity that could embarrass the #Taliban"

"Numbers for Al-Qaida core remain in the 'several dozen' range" per @UN report

#AQIS [alQaida in the Indian Subcontinent] "is reported to have 180 to 400 fighters...from #Bangladesh, #India, #Myanmar & #Pakistan"

#AQIS located in #Afghanistan's #Ghazni, #Helmand, #Kandahar, #Nimruz, #Paktika & #Zabul provinces, per @UN report

AQIS led by former spox Osama Mahmood. #2 is Atif Yahya Ghouri

"AQIS elements remain difficult to distinguish from the #Taliban forces in which they are embedded"

More on #AQIS - @UN member state intel suggests number of fighters is on the low end of the 180-400 estimate

Group's capabilities "are assessed as still weakened from losses as a result of the October 2015 joint United States-Afghan raid in Kandahar’s Shorabak district"

"#AQIS has also been forced by financial constraints to adopt a less aggressive posture" per @UN report

BUT "As with #alQaida core, new circumstances in #Afghanistan may allow the group to reorganize itself"

Danger posed by #alQaida & also #ISIS-#Khorasan

"Neither ISIL-K nor alQaida is believed to be capable of mounting int' attacks before 2023 at the earliest, regardless of their intent or of whether the #Taliban acts to restrain them" per @UN report

#ISIS-#Khorasan-"leader Sanaullah Ghafari remains alive & in control of the group, which has financial resources & has grown in strength through prison releases & new recruitments" per @UN report

BUT "an intense [#ISIS-#Khorasan] campaign against the #Taliban during the early months of its rule faded by December" per @UN report

"...may reflect an effective counter-#Daesh strategy by the #Taliban or could be attributed to winter conditions in remote locations"

Going forward "an uptick in attacks by I[#ISIS-#Khorasan] against #Taliban & soft targets may be expected to set the tone for a new fighting season" per @UN report

"Conversely, failure by ISIL-K to challenge the Taliban may indicate that it is weaker than assessed..."

#ISIS-#Khorasan leader Sanaullah Ghafari "assessed to be in eastern #Afghanistan, possibly #Kunar, #Nangarhar or #Nuristan" per @UN report

Several member states report former ISIS-K leader Aslam Farooqi - who was freed from prison - was killed in January

.@UN report says other key #ISIS-#Khorasan leaders include

-deputy Mawlawi Rajab Salahuddin
-spox Sultan Aziz Azzam
-finance chief Abu Mohsin
-training chief Qari Shahadat
-intel chief Qari Saleh
-military chief Qari Fateh

#ISIS-core maintains an "Al-Siddiq Office" with ISIS-#Khorasan in #Afghanistan to represent the core group's interests, per @UN report

It is run by Sheikh Tamim al-Kurdi "who has a small number of cohorts & is reported to work cordially with [ISIS-K leader] Ghafari"

Per @UN member state intelligence, #ISIS-#Khorasan has between 1,500 and 4,000 fighters "concentrated in remote areas of #Kunar, #Nangarhar & possibly #Nuristan Province"

Also smaller, covert cells in northern provinces of #Badakhshan, #Faryab, #Jowzjan, #Kunduz, #Takhar

Possible #ISIS-#Khorasan infighting

"Geographical distance & ethnic differences (Afghan & Pakistani Pashtuns in the east & ethnic Tajik and Uzbeks in the north) may mean that various ISIL-K presences around #Afghanistan struggle to coordinate w/each other" per @UN report

#Taliban decision to empty key prisons may not have helped #ISIS-#Khorsan as much as initially thought

Per @UN report, many of the ISIS prisoners "are believed to have returned home, leaving the actual number of those who rejoined ISIL-K closer to several hundred"

#ISIS-#Khorsan recruitment "has come from #Taliban defections & others disillusioned by the group’s engagement w/the int'l community, by its inability to pay salaries, by its engagement w/minority communities or, conversely, by its excesses of Pashtun favouritism" per @UN report

Ex-#ANDSF joining #ISIS-#Khorasan - @UN report confirms some have

"Member States acknowledge that some former Afghan National Defence & Security Forces joined ISIL-K for protection from or revenge against the #Taliban, but these numbers are assessed as low"

Questions abt #ISIS-#Khorasan funding

"Traditional sources of fundraising have been Salafi mosques & madrassas in the #Afghan-#Pakistan border area" per @UN report "These are reported to be currently under pressure from the #Taliban to curtail contributions"

Possibility for an #ISIS-#Khorasan "pseudo-'caliphate'"

"ISIL-K may seek to control territory that includes Salafi communities, especially in eastern #Afghanistan" per @UN report

"#Taliban retaliation & crackdowns against #Salafi communities risk pushing those communities more firmly into the [#ISIS-#Khorasan] camp, allowing the group potentially to re-establish a pseudo-'caliphate', even if only on a miniature scale" per @UN report

#ISIS-#Khorasan objective "remains to challenge the #Taliban by waging a war that fits into the broader #Daesh concept of 'global jihad'" per @UN report

Short-term focus "expected to remain on attacks on soft targets such as Shia Hazara mosques & minority groups" & recruitment

#Taliban vs #ISIS-#Khorasan

Per @UN assessment, while Taliban "strong enough to impose itself in most of [#Afghanistan], it cannot dominate it completely"

"If ISIL-K fighters are able to control small pockets of land...the Taliban may struggle to dislodge them"

#Taliban - #ISIS-#Khorasan NOT always enemies

"There might be local-level, pragmatic, transactional dealings between members" per @UN report

"Taliban might not expend effort preventing attacks that do not target them, particularly if they advance Taliban interests"

#ISIS-#Khorasan attack capabilities - "Member States expect no attacks directed from #Afghanistan until 2023 at the earliest, although cross-border attacks remain a possibility" per @UN report

Other #terror groups in #Afghanistan:

Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM)
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
Jaish-i-Mohammed (JiM)
Jamaat Ansarullah
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT)

per @UN report

Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (#TTP) "constitutes the largest component of foreign terrorist fighters in #Afghanistan" per @UN report

"3,000 to 4,000 armed fighters located along the east and south-east #Afghanistan-#Pakistan border areas"

#TTP "arguably benefitted the most of all the foreign extremist groups in #Afghanistan from the #Taliban takeover" per @UN report

Leader is Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud

"It has conducted numerous attacks & operations in #Pakistan... also continues to exist as a stand-alone force"

Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (#ETIM)/aka Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) assessed to have between several dozen & 1,000 fighters in #Afghanistan, per @UN report

#ETIM also has possibly expanded it operations, cultivating relationships w/local commandders & "is seeking to further entrench its presence in the country by both organizing marriages to local women & facilitating the relocation of Uighur #women to #Afghanistan" per @UN report

Some intelligence assessments suggest #ETIM members "were relocated from #Badakhshan to provinces further from the #Chinese border as part of the #Taliban’s efforts both to protect & restrain the group" per @UN report

Per @UN assessment, there is some evidence to suggest #ETIM at times may work w/#ISIS-#Khorasan (reported to have 40-50 #Uighur members) & also collaborates w/#TTP

#JamaatAnsarullah has abt 300 fighters, mostly #Tajik nationals, per @UN report

Led by "Sajod, the son of the former leader, Damullo Amriddin... [group] closely associated w/ #alQaida & during 2021 fought alongside #Taliban forces in #Badakhshan"

Jaish-i-Mohammed (#JiM) "ideologically closer to the Taliban" per @UN report

Maintains several training camps in #Nangarhar, #Kunar some of which are said to be under #Taliban control but intelligence estimates differ on the group's strength & presence in #Afghanistan

Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (#LeT) also reportedly operates training camps and reportedly met in January 2022 w/#Taliban officials