Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 11 52 tweets 38 min read
Thread: 11 July 2022: Day 138 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues shelling the Donbas, but the territorial advances are incremental and the strain of sustaining combat operations is exacerbating all the problems in the Army, especially personnel. #Ukraine is pressuring the Russian line in Kherson.
#India and #Iran are working on a shorter trade route, the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), to avoid the #Russia sanctions. tribuneindia.com/news/nation/in…
Thread. #Russia has lost 25% to 50% of the 3,300 tanks sent into #Ukraine in February. In theory, the Russians have thousands more tanks, but these are Soviet-era products and if the maintenance was bad on the frontline tanks, it is non-existent on these
#Russia's forces have captured #Ukraine human rights activist Maksym Butkevych, co-founder of Hromadske Radio who joined the defence force when the invasion began, near Hirske in the Luhansk Oblast. Moscow accuses Butkevych of commanding a "Nazi platoon". hromadske.radio/news/2022/07/1…
The Roman Catholic Pope expresses sympathy for #Ukrainians - in Russian and Ukrainian - suffering "brutal attacks".

Notably, Francis does not mention #Russia being responsible for this "crazy war", which he asks the Lord to end - a request it would be better to direct to Moscow.
Interesting. #Russia has definitely avoiding lingering in #Ukraine's airspace and taken very circuitous routes along the borders and through Belarus to do this. Unsure if the absence is as total as this.
The conclusion of yet another round of, "Oh no, we couldn't possibly give Ukraine *those* ... [months delay and thousands killed and wounded] ... You know what, we can and will". #Harpoons
#Ukraine requesting ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles for the HIMARS/etc. to give it the range it needs. Currently being denied, with awful consequences in Kharkiv, a city the Ukrainians won back and which #Russia is punishing with long-range attacks.
Late, again, but a positive step: the #EU clearly needs to add protection to #Moldova, which is under threat from #Russia, internally and potentially externally.
Can only say that I am very glad #Britain is out from under the bizarre tangle of ideological commitments that rule over the #EU
War is a great clarifier and what that light has exposed about #Germany's role in the Alliance is not flattering
The #US is apparently set to send former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson to #Russia to discuss the hostages, Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan. If that trip is made, has to be assumed #Biden is preparing a deal to release Russian convicts held in the US.
It was the last act of the late and unlamented Vladimir Zhirinovsky to announce in public, almost to the hour, when #Russia's war on #Ukraine would begin - weeks before it did, when the official line was that no invasion was coming.
#Lithuania continuing to enforce the #EU sanctions on #Russia over Kaliningrad, despite Brussels preparing to throw the Lithuanians under the bus on the matter
Even after the demonstration in #Ukraine of what the #Russia-#China alliance intends, the #EU continues to thwart #Taiwan's ability to defend itself.
#Russia's "silent" mobilisation is not going absolutely splendidly
Oleg Kotenko, the Commissioner for Missing Persons in Special Circumstances, says there are 7,200 #Ukrainian soldiers from all the various branches missing, most of them in #Russian captivity. suspilne.media/259126-vtorgne…
#pt: Was clear #Russia would use "passportisation" to try to break apart #Ukraine and annex the splinters
One should not really be surprised by the #Biden administration's crazy messaging and laggard war-making with #Russia, but even so they keep managing it.
#Ukraine seriously destabilising #Russia's hold on Kherson. Moscow has been trailing a "referendum" to annex the zone for months, but guerrilla activities and strikes have derailed this effort.
Yesterday, #Russian demolished a block of flats with missiles in Chasiv Yar, near the town of Kramatorsk in the Donetsk Oblast of eastern #Ukraine. The death toll is rising by the hour as the bodies are dug out. Up to at least 26 now.
#Russia launched artillery and other attacks across #Ukraine - in Mykolayiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv - overnight.
Vsevolod Osipov, involved with the libertarians (LPR), was recruited by the FSB to spy on emigres in Georgia. He took Moscow's money, told his comrades what he was doing, and then cut off all contact on the day of the Ukraine invasion. meduza.io/feature/2022/0…
Osipov signed a cooperation agreement ("There were literally two lines ... that I undertake to transfer any information of interest to the FSB officers") and was run by Centre E, the "counter-extremism" directorate within the Internal Affairs Ministry.
Sensible from the Baltics and Scandinavians
Another of #Russia's online messengers got into it with the Fellas, and that went about as well as it usually does. #NAFO
Yevgeny Yunakov, the head of the #Russian collaborationist administration in Velykyi Burluk, a settlement in #Ukraine's Kharkiv region, has been killed by a bomb under his car. Naturally, Moscow says this was done by "Nazis from the Ukrainian government". novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/…
The #Russian occupation administration in #Kherson says that earlier today the collaborationist head of the "military-civilian administration", Volodymyr Saldo, escaped an assassination attempt using an IED planted on a road his car was set to travel along.
As ever the "realist" turns out to be the most idealist/ideological/fantasy-land thinker of all: Barry Posen assumes "restraint" is the answer, blames the US for blocking it, and declares Ukraine needs to accept material concessions for intangible promises
A spectacular explosion in Nova Kakhovka, in Kherson, where #Ukraine has destroyed one of #Russia's ammunition warehouses.

The Ukrainian challenge to the Russian occupation of Kherson is clearly concentrating and escalating.
The S-400 is such garbage. How the myth to the contrary persisted for so long is academically very interesting, part and parcel of #Russia's ramshackle military being taken seriously.

This is from something I wrote in July 2019. orfonline.org/expert-speak/t…
#pt: As @akoz33 mentions, the fact #Russia's air defence systems do not work is an embarrassment to numerous investors, but perhaps to #Israel above all: it takes an axe to the root of Jerusalem's rationalisation for appeasing Moscow.

Long form, 2018: kyleorton.substack.com/p/why-putins-r…
Reports of another #Russian General killed in #Ukraine, in the HIMARS strike on the ammunition warehouse in Kherson tonight: Maj.-Gen. Nasbulin, the Chief of Staff of the 22nd Army Corps.
#Russia's media has avoided talking about the Generals in #Ukriane almost entirely, focusing on lower-level soldiers, because #Putin fears them gaining popularity and becoming a threat to him, three sources in the Presidential Administration say. meduza.io/en/feature/202…
#pt: "When [#Russian] generals are mentioned at all [in state media], it tends to be in stories about them either awarding soldiers for 'carrying out tasks assigned by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief' or receiving their own awards from the president."
One of #Putin's lead propagandists on state TV, Olga Skabeeva, highlights Trump saying Biden is the worst President in history and the #US should focus on its internal affairs, not #Ukraine. "Trump is trying to convince us to support him again".
#Iran is preparing to send "several hundred" drones to #Russia, perhaps as early as this month, according to @JakeSullivan46. The Iranians built their drones from stolen US technology after they downed an American drone in 2011. thehill.com/homenews/admin…
#Russia's "silent" mobilisation getting less silent
More details on #Ukraine's destruction of one of #Russia's ammunition stores, in Kherson, tonight.
.@mdmitri91 helpfully translating some of the #Russian military bloggers' responses to the Kherson ammo depot being vapourised tonight. All note the impact the #HIMARS are having and #Ukraine's skilful, focused targeting to which Russia has found no answer wartranslated.com/russians-react…
#pt: Notable that one of the Russian military bloggers says that the war on #Ukraine is really a war between #Russia and #NATO, which is the dominant view of the Putin government and its supporters, but frames it in an interesting way, because of the "passportisation" in Kherson.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems to have put a stop to decades of fantasy thinking and made defence something #Britain's government once again takes seriously. Reversing the damage and rebuilding the military is going to be a herculean task, though. economist.com/britain/2022/0…
Re the statement from @JakeSullivan46 tonight that #Iran's clerical regime is (and might already be) sending hundreds of drones to #Russia, note this thread starting back in April:
#Ukraine's President Zelensky met in Kiev today with the Prime Minister of the #Netherlands, Mark Rutte.
#Russia doing everything it can in the occupied zones of #Ukraine to change the demographics, from massacring and deporting Ukrainians who live there, to handing out Russian passports and destroying the Ukrainian passports of the survivors
#Ukraine's President Zelensky had some pointed remarks for #Canada and #Germany in his statement this evening
Would not be surprising for #Iran to be sending drones, as the US reports, or other equipment to help #Russia's war on #Ukraine

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 10
A lot in this: Jordan Peterson was always most useful as a nudge in the culture - away from the "new atheist" rationalists, toward the wisdom of inherited Christianity, and the need for solutions to the "father hunger" - rather than a substantive answer. rebelwisdom.substack.com/p/what-happene…
#pt: "There seems to be something of a ... splitting off of those who were initially attracted to [Jordan Peterson as] a nuanced and fascinating thinker on religion and culture, and those who were mainly attracted to him as a culture war political fighter."
#pt: "It's undeniable that Peterson's philosophy, and the way he broke it down ... has helped thousands, if not millions of people. The mainstream portrayal of him always failed to acknowledge ... [the] testimonies from people saying how his work had saved their lives"
Read 5 tweets
Jul 10
Thread: 10 July 2022: Day 137 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Ukrainians explain why they stayed to fight #Russia's invasion
Instructive that even in a zone where they have even seriously beaten, #Russia is still moving towards annexation in Kharkiv
Read 23 tweets
Jul 9
Thread: 9 July 2022: Day 136 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is trying to pull together resources for further offensives in #Ukraine, but it is notable that both the human and material aspects of this cobble-up effort are substandard.
😒 "#Canada will return a repaired #Russian turbine to #Germany needed for maintenance on the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline", despite requests from #Ukraine that this not be done to avoid assisting the effort to destroy their state. reuters.com/business/energ…
Read 27 tweets
Jul 6
Thread: 6 July 2022: Day 133 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues to consolidate in Lyschyansk and the broader Luhansk Oblast, and is moving troops to the Izyum front, though the Russians have only advanced about three miles toward Izyum in the last week. Russia is still ten miles from Slovyansk.
#Russia: in Cherepovets, Vologda Oblast, a woman wrote appeals for peace in the snow with paint, including the Sixth Commandment from the Bible. This was 18 March. Sentenced under the "discrediting" the Army law, she appealed on free speech grounds, which have now been rejected.
Read 23 tweets
Jul 5
Apparently the fat lady is clearing her throat for Boris
Jacob Rees Mogg absolutely deserves all the ridicule he gets for this. He knows better than anyone how the system works. The Party was elected. Boris was not.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 5
Thread: 5 July 2022: Day 132 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's capture of Luhansk Oblast "allow[s] it to claim substantive progress" and for once there was evidence of "reasonably effective coordination" between two Groupings of Forces (Central and Southern). #Ukraine withdrew in "good order". Image
#Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan has doubts it was a good idea to be stood next to #Putin as he launched his war to eradicate #Ukraine, though Khan isn't sure it is really his fault.
Read 29 tweets

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