Thread by @InsightGL

1️⃣
-Just 3 days ago #China’s President #XiJinping asked #Chinese armed forces to focus on combat readiness
-Xi is Chairman of Chinese Communist Party (#CCP) Central Military Commission (CMC)
-In 2016 Xi made PLA, an army that is loyal to no one but himself

2️⃣
-Xi restructured 4 general depts into 15 depts
-General Staff Department, General Political Department, most powerful
-2 former CMC V chairmen controlling these dept, Guo Boxiong & Xu Caihou were expelled from party for corruption
-Chairman controls PLA through General Office

3️⃣
-4 members of CMC have reached official retirement age of 68
-They could step down on 16 Oct during 20th National Congress of #CCP
-Xi puts political loyalty above combat experience
-Vice-chairmen Gen Xu Qiliang & General Zhang Youxia are oldest, & be 72

4️⃣
-Gen Wei Fenghe, defence minister & Gen Li Zuocheng, chief of the Joint Staff Department, are 68
-Gen Miao Hua, head Political Work Department & Gen Zhang Shengmin, oversees military discipline, will be young enough to stay on

5️⃣
-New picks are generally from pool of PLA generals who are members or alternate members of the Central Committee,
-They should have been chief of a theatre command or service branch & have combat experience
-But #XiJinping is known to break rules & might promote Lt Gens

6️⃣
-PLA field army is stationed in southeastern province of Fujian
-#XiJinping spent 17 years of his political career from 1985 to 2002 in this province
-So Xi might get one of his loyalists from there
-But General Liu Zhenli, ground force commander can not be ignored

7️⃣
-Gen Lin Xiangyang is another frontrunner
-He heads Eastern Theatre Command & was in the 31st Group Army while Xi was in Fujian
-Eastern Theatre Command, which is the main force to take on #Taiwan
-Therefore Liu and Lin are among Xi’s most trusted generals

8️⃣
-So if coup news is real then it has to be struggle between generals, who do not want to leave & who want to join in
-If all-powerful generals have come to know that they have been overlooked they might take extreme step though #XiJinping has surrounded himself with loyalists

9️⃣
-Nevertheless, none of this is possible without some very powerful political backing
-More to follow

#China #Chinese #XiJinping