Thread by @jseldin

NEW: US facing "diverse, geographically dispersed & highly unpredictable threat environment" Nat'l Counterterrorism Center Dir. Christine Abizaid tells @WashInstitute

Attack/threat "most likely to occur in the #UnitedStates from lone actors...motivated by a range of ideologies" from #ISIS #alQaida to racism & white supremacy, sometimes a combination, per NCTC's Abizaid

"The threat is unpredictable" both in US & the Western world, she says

As far as non-US based groups/actors, #alQaida & #ISIS continue to pose top threats to the US homeland, per NCTC's Abizaid

The most likely terrorist attack in the United States is going by an individual driven by racial and ethnic motivated extremism, per NCTC's Abizaid

Often w/a "lower degree of sophistication" that from transnational plots

"The pressure you need to maintain on the #alQaida & #ISIS networks...absolutely necessary" per NCTC's Abizaid

"We're managing what is a dynamic threat environment"

"The most evidence of foreign nexus" is with racially/ethnically motivated extremists, per NCTC's Abizaid

"Some of this is about online collectives that are transnational in nature"

"We're seeing aspect of it in #SouthAmerica" as well as in West, she adds

US, partner pressure on #ISIS "has kept this threat at bay" in #Iraq & #Syria, per NCTC's Abizaid

BUT "this brand expansion of the #IslamicState is really concerning" she says, noting concerning signs in #Afghanistan, expansion across #Africa

#alQaida's center of gravity - "That is the question" NCTC's Abizaid tells @WashInstitute

Dead leader Ayman al-#Zawahiri "was the center of gravity for that netowrk. He was symbolically important...strategically important"

Death of #alQaida's #Zawahiri "test the ties that bind" the rest of the affiliates, per NCTC's Abizaid

Best candidates to replace Zawahiri still stuck in #Iran, she adds

#alQaida in #Syria-"The core alQaida presence is #HurrasalDin" per NCTC's Abizaid "...not jut bcs of its base to operate in Syria...[but bcs of] their stature & interconnectivity"

"The main focus & where we are most concerned..is #Somalia, our main concern is the #Sahel" per NCTC's Abizaid

BUT "the #SouthAfrica story is a really interesting story...#Mozambique is another interesting example...#DRC"

"It's these other expansionary areas...that provide us this warning" about the growing threat from #ISIS, per NCTC's Abizaid

#Afghanistan - #alQaida in the Indian [#AQIS] subcontinent "defunct" per NCTC's Abizaid, calling it less & less of a threat

#ISIS-#Khorasan in #Afghanistan "we have got to be very mindful of" per NCTC's Abizaid

Abizaid also calls #ISIS-K the threat "that I am most concerned about" as far as reaching outside of Afghanistan

Over-the-horizon CT - "Yes, it can work" per NCTC's Abizaid, pointing to US strike that killed #alQaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri

#Iran's intent to conduct terrorist attacks-"They are very active & intent on revenge for [Quds Force Cmdr Qassem] Soleimani...tit-for-tat w/the #Israel|is"
per NCTC's Abizaid

"What I see is a pretty braze Iranian threat network that is willing to explore avenues for attack"

#Iran threat - "We're seeing it more often & in a way I am very concerned about how metered it is...how well we understand the escalation ladder" per NCTC's Abizaid

#Iran's plots vs activists & journalists "also persistent & concerning" per NCTC's Abizaid

#Iran-"It's not just a proxy battle" per NCTC's Abizaid

"Iran is leveraging its own capabilities" vs the US, West, other enemies

#Hezbollah "most capable...most mature" of #Iran's proxies, per NCTC's Abizaid

"Has a history of capability that goes well outside the region...difficult target to understand & track"

Social media - "We've got to be concerned, we've got to be vigilant but we also have to give room for technology to thrive" per NCTC's Abizaid

#ISIS-#Khorasan "primarily tied up w/fighting the #Taliban" though still reason to be concerned abt their external ambitions, per NCTC's Abizaid

Won't give estimate for when ISIS-K might try to launch attack vs US, West

#Russia|n paramilitary group #Wagner "is a major concern...counterproductive" when it comes to countering terrorism, especially in #Africa, per NCTC's Abizaid

"The online environment is where most of the radicalization is occurring" per NCTC's Abizaid

"Very divergent ideologies...are coming together in a single individuals mind"

The amount of money terror groups are spending on "slick" propaganda shows how valuable it is to their causes, per NCTC's Abizaid

#Syria's role in the threat environment - "It's all happening in Syria...at the same time" per NCTC's Abizaid

High number of radicalized individuals across the country - "It's a festering problem...requires a level of sophistication" to address

#Syria's #alHol displaced person's camp: "It is a significant challenge" per NCTC's Abizaid

"It is a problem we have to stay focused on...It is an intelligence challenge to understand what's going on" in the camp