Ergun Unutmaz Profile picture
May 1 ÔÇó 10 tweets ÔÇó 14 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#MarketReport 2023/04

1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of

­čôî #Stock Indices
­čôî #Exchange Rates
­čôî Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds

both for April and since pandemic. Image
2) #StockMarkets

MoM returns in April, at their own currency:

Ô×í´ŞĆ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
3) #StockMarkets

MoM returns in April, based on USD:

Ô×í´ŞĆ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
4) #StockMarkets

Returns from 31/12/2019, at their own currency:

Ô×í´ŞĆ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
5) #StockMarkets

Returns from 31/12/2019, based on USD:

Ô×í´ŞĆ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
6) #ExchangeRates

Performance from 31/12/2019. Depreciation and appreciation of selected currencies:

­čôî #DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #USDCAD #USDJPY #USDTRY Image
7) #FixedIncomeSecurities

#USA
Treasury Bills (3M)
Government Bonds (2Y and 10Y)
Spreads and Reel Yield Approximation. ImageImage
8) #FixedIncomeSecurities

#Germany
Treasury Bills (3M)
Government Bonds (2Y and 10Y)
Spreads and Reel Yield Approximation. ImageImage
9) #FixedIncomeSecurities

#UK
Treasury Bills (3M)
Government Bonds (2Y and 10Y)
Spreads and Reel Yield Approximation. ImageImage
10) #FixedIncomeSecurities

#Turkey
Treasury Bills (3M)
Government Bonds (2Y and 10Y)
Spreads and Reel Yield Approximation. ImageImage

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More from @ergun_unutmaz

May 1
#┼×i┼čecam finansallar─▒n─▒ incelemeyi s├╝rd├╝r├╝yorum ve bu kez yap─▒sal de─či┼čiklikler nedeniyle biraz uzun s├╝recek.

├çok genel yorumla: Sat─▒┼člar azal─▒rken, br├╝t k├ór marj─▒ artm─▒┼č, FV├ľK marj─▒ daralm─▒┼č (yine de g├╝├žl├╝). Maliyet art─▒┼č─▒ ve talep ko┼čullar─▒ndaki daralman─▒n etkisi g├Âr├╝l├╝yor. Image
Raporlama de─či┼čikli─čine Alper Bey, k─▒saca yer verdi─či a┼ča─č─▒ya ekledim.

Bunun d─▒┼č─▒nda yat─▒r─▒mlar, sat─▒n almalar ve so─čuk bak─▒m gibi ├Ânemli kararlar sermaye harcamalar─▒ ve nakit ak─▒┼č─▒n─▒ etkiliyor. Tabi iyi taraftan, gelecek k├órl─▒l─▒k ve b├╝y├╝meyi de.

1) Bug├╝n finasal tablo detaylar─▒na grafikler ve belgelerdeki a├ž─▒klamalar ├╝zerinden yakla┼čarak #┼×i┼čecam ┼čirketi i├žin 2023 y─▒l─▒n─▒n ilk ├žeyrek performans─▒na ve gelece─če ili┼čkin beklentilere bakal─▒m.

Fiyat d├╝┼čerken belki o kadar keyifli olmuyor, ama de─čer yat─▒r─▒m─▒nda i┼čin ├Âz├╝ bu. Image
Read 18 tweets
Apr 2
­čŚô´ŞĆ 2020 - 2021 - 2022 + 2023/Q1 Returns

1) #SPX

S&P 500 Endeksinin ge├žen 3 y─▒ldaki ve bu y─▒l─▒n ilk ├žeyre─čindeki getirileri
2) #IXIC

#Nasdaq Endeksinin ge├žen 3 y─▒ldaki ve bu y─▒l─▒n ilk ├žeyre─čindeki getirileri.
3) #DAX

#DAX Endeksinin ge├žen 3 y─▒ldaki ve bu y─▒l─▒n ilk ├žeyre─čindeki getirileri.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 1
#ChartStorm: 1/17
­čŚô´ŞĆ March Performance of ...

­čç║­čçŞ #SPX #IXIC #DJI ­čç»­čçÁ #NI225 ­čçę­čç¬ #DAX ­čç╣­čçĚ #XU100

#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD

#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
2) Here I'll cover 6 stock market indices in 4 countries:

In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.

As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
3) I have adjusted the data, and now all are denominated in US dollars.

#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 9
1) Bug├╝n (bence net, ancak) ├žo─čunluk i├žin tart─▒┼čmal─▒ bir konu ├╝zerine yazaca─č─▒m. #PayGeriAl─▒m─▒. (#Buybacks)

Asl─▒nda #Berkshire y─▒ll─▒k toplant─▒s─▒ i├žin mektubunda Warren Buffett bu konuyu savunmu┼č, hatta aksi g├Âr├╝┼čtekileri sert bir dille ele┼čtirmi┼čti.

ft.com/content/97b875ÔÇŽ
2) A├ž─▒klaman─▒n pay geri al─▒mlar─▒na ili┼čkin vergi d├╝zenlemesinin y├╝r├╝rl├╝─če girmesinin ard─▒ndan gelmesi her ne kadar konuyu ba┼čka noktalara ta┼č─▒sa ve bunun ekonomiye ekileri d├╝┼č├╝k seviyede olsa da ben tart─▒┼čmay─▒ kurumsal finans d├╝zleminde aktaraca─č─▒m.
3) Merak edileni ba┼čta s├Âyleyeyim:

E─čer pay geri al─▒mlar─▒n─▒n gerek├žesi piyasada i┼člem g├Âren hisselerin de─čerinin d├╝┼č├╝k olmas─▒ysa buna %100 kat─▒l─▒yorum ki Buffett'─▒n da vurgulad─▒─č─▒ bu nokta bence itiraz i├žermiyor.

Ancak her geri al─▒m (├Âyle dense de) bu nedenle yap─▒lmaz.
Read 16 tweets
Mar 9
1) Bu y─▒l sadece grafik tasar─▒mlar─▒m─▒ de─čil, ├žal─▒┼čt─▒─č─▒m dosyalar─▒n veri altyap─▒s─▒n─▒ ve Excel ak─▒┼č─▒n─▒ da ba┼čtan sona yeniledim.

Kredi derecelendirme kurulu┼člar─▒ Moody's, S&P ve Fitch'in #T├╝rkiye i├žin #KrediNotlar─▒n─▒ ve a├ž─▒klamalar─▒n─▒ da bu kapsamda g├╝ncelledim.

#Ratings
2) #Yat─▒r─▒maUygun seviyede (bile) kredi notlar─▒n─▒n ve buna paralel #Temerr├╝tRiski Farklar─▒n─▒n son ├╝├ž y─▒l i├žindeki seyri dikkat ├žekici.

B├╝t├╝nsel salg─▒n sonras─▒nda ve enflasyonla makas giderek a├ž─▒lm─▒┼č. Spek├╝latif b├Âl├╝mde ┼čartlar daha zor.

#InvestmentGrade #Ratings #DefaultSpreads
3) Damodaran Hoca'n─▒n y─▒lda iki kere yapt─▒─č─▒ g├╝ncellemenin ard─▒ndan T├╝rk├že olarak sundu─čum #RiskDe─čerleri ba┼čl─▒kl─▒ ├žal─▒┼čmam─▒ Ocak ay─▒nda payla┼čm─▒┼čt─▒m.

Bir sonraki g├╝ncelleme Temmuz ay─▒nda olacak.

ergununutmaz.com/risk-degerleriÔÇŽ
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
1) #Powell'─▒n Konu┼čmas─▒

#FED'in son toplant─▒s─▒ndan notlar alanlar i├žin beklendi─či gibi ┼čahin; h├ól├ó iyimser olanlar i├žinse sert a├ž─▒klamalar i├žeren bir g├╝n geride kald─▒.

├ľnce mevcut durumda FED faizlerine (e─čriler, sol eksen) ve #faiz art─▒┼člar─▒na (turkuaz, sa─č eksen) bakal─▒m.
2) Enflasyon ve i┼čsizlik verilerine ba─čl─▒ olarak ge├žen seneki 75 baz puanl─▒k art─▒┼člar─▒n 50 ve 25 bp ┼čekline d├Ân├╝┼čmesi FED pivot umutlar─▒n─▒ harekete ge├žirmi┼čti.

Ancak #enflasyon cephesinde hen├╝z zafer ilan etmek i├žin erken. Man┼čet (beyaz) ve ├žekirdek (mavi) enflasyon h├ól├ó y├╝ksek.
3) ┼×artlar b├Âyle olunca da hisse senetleri piyasas─▒nda sat─▒┼člar g├Âr├╝l├╝rken tahvil getirilerinde art─▒┼člar─▒n oldu─ču bir kapan─▒┼č izledik.

Her ne kadar portf├Ây├╝mdeki hisse a─č─▒rl─▒─č─▒ s├╝rse de nakit stratejimle geli┼čmeleri takip etmeye devam edece─čim.
Read 5 tweets

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