Thread by @KumarSeshadri

Any military operation that has been expected for months usually fails because the opponent has had plenty of time to plan a defence. Most successful operations are surprise operations, but not all surprise attacks work against a prepared opponent.

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Expected attacks can work if there's overwhelming force. An example is #DesertStorm.

Example of successful surprise operations: #PearlHarbor, The #Incheon Landings in the #KoreanWar, #OperationUranus at #Stalingrad in October 1942 that encircled the #German #SixthArmy.

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An example of a failed attack because there was no surprise in it was #OperationCitadel at the #BattleofKursk in June 1943. The expected line of attack was obvious to everyone because of the disposition of troops.

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It was clear that the Germans would attempt a pincer operation to encircle the huge Soviet salient at #Kursk by attacking from both the northern and southern flanks. The #Soviets prepared very well, and the #Germans suffered a defeat.

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Another frontal assault that failed was the attack on #Moscow in November 1941. #Zhukov had plenty of time, and used it in preparing excellent defenses of the city against the German tanks. The Germans lost a million lives in the winter campaign.

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This is the biggest weakness of the #Ukrainian #counteroffensive planned for the late spring of 2023. The #Russians know the terrain very well, they know the probable axes of advance, and so they will be very prepared. No surprise.

History doesn't bode well for #Ukraine.

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