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FWIW, all the backchannel buzz—and what clues we have—suggest (a) a Flynn flip and indictment, (b) Jared is closer to arrest than we think.
2/ Certainly, the insane response to yesterday's news from Gorka, Trump, Hannity and Stone suggests more than Manafort and financial crimes.
3/ That said, we have to be very cautious—as Manafort is the only person who has been *told* by Mueller's agents that he *will* be indicted.
4/ Understand a Flynn indictment *doesn't* mean he *hasn't* flipped—flipped persons *must* be indicted if their deal involves a conviction.
5/ *If* Flynn's indictment was sealed partly because he's flipped, the two men most imperiled by his indictment are a) Jared, and b) Trump.
6/ But Jared would be arrested first—as he can be charged/prosecuted. Trump can *maybe* be indicted but can't be prosecuted pre-impeachment.
7/ Right now, the "indictment likelihood ranking" for this Monday is: Manafort and Flynn tied for first, and Jared and Page tied for third.
8/ We don't know if we have multiple defendants. But if Mueller is ready on any defendant—except Trump—we should expect they were indicted.
9/ I want to emphasize: "buzz" isn't news. But we do have multiple public cues (Woolsey and Boente) Flynn has been indicted and/or flipped.
10/ And if Flynn has been indicted and/or flipped, the *most* immediately imperiled person is Jared Kushner. Manafort is a harder case.
11/ Manafort's alleged financial crimes are a) more complex than anything else, and b) only indirectly Russia-related, so they're different.
12/ IOW Mueller gets far more leverage and job security from a Flynn, Kushner, Page, Sater, Cohen, or Papadopoulos indictment than Manafort.
13/ But Manafort is the only man known to have been informed of future indictment, so he's tied for first in "most likely first indictment."
14/ A big part of this is, "Who's most likely to flip?" Flynn is most likely, followed by Manafort. Then—distantly—Page and Kushner.
15/ Flynn is most likely, as he already offered—Manafort because he's venal. Page is an ideologue—Kushner has "rogues' honor" in his family.
