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Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
, 12 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
All eyes on Manafort-Flynn, but what if … Mueller indicts Russians Monday (or soon)?

It would be a game changer in several ways… <THREAD>
2. First and foremost: Indicting Russians would make it harder to (ever) fire Mueller or shut down his investigation...
3. Indictment of Russians also undercuts Trump's ability to pardon his way out of this mess. Politically hard to pardon Russians, and…
4. Even with sweeping pardons of Americans, Mueller’s investigation would have every reason to continue (against the Russian suspects)....
5. Mueller could also indict Russians and name (pardoned) Trump associates as “unindicted co-conspirators” (reduces incentive to pardon)...
6. Mueller’s naming any Trump associates as “unindicted co-conspirators” would be very significant for public understanding of wrongdoing...
7. Trump associates are less likely to flip knowing Pres. may pardon them (Arpaio pardon helped signaled to them he would for loyalty)...
8. Russian nationals, on other hand, can’t count on any pardons, so may be more likely to flip/cooperate if ever taken into custody...
9. Russian indictments also shape the narrative: core value of Mueller probe is getting those responsible for interfering in our elections…
10. Core value of Mueller's prosecuting election interference may include Russian interference in GOP primary too.

justsecurity.org/43270/trump-ca…
11. Russians likely commited offences in DNC hack, campaign interference, etc. So don't be surprise by Russian indictments at some point...
12. It takes two to collude (need a Russian partner).

So good reason to think evidence may turn Mueller to indict Russians too. <end>
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Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
One small subpoena, one big effect. <thread>

A key that may unlock Trump's direct involvement in Russian interference is a phone call between Don Jr and mystery blocked number in setting up Trump Tower meeting.

Now Dems hold subpoena power.

Recall this:
thehill.com/policy/nationa…
Analysis by @AndyMcCanse is a must read on how the House's new Democratic majority can now pursue different threads in Russia investigation.

(analysis includes subpoena for the phone records, larger items like Russia money laundering, and more)

justsecurity.org/61409/russia-i…
On alleged Trump-Russian money laundering links—now likely to take on a new focus in House investigations—it's a good time to (re)read @craigunger's recent book:

"House of Trump, House of Putin: The Untold Story of Donald Trump and the Russian Mafia"
penguinrandomhouse.com/books/576474/h…
Read 3 tweets
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Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
Big revelation in front page NYT story on U.S. support for Saudi #YemenWar

On left: General Votel says to @SenWarren Pentagon unable to tell whether U.S. fuel/bombs were used in Saudi strikes that killed civilians (March 13, 2018)

On right: NYT investigation shows opposite.
Here's NYT must read on US support for Saudi Yemen War👇

Insightful quotes by @LarryLewis_ (State Dept point person for Saudi coalition civilian casualties 2015-17) @Malinowski (former senior US official and new member of Congress)

I was also interviewed
nytimes.com/2018/12/25/wor…
“We concluded that they [the Saudis] were just not willing to listen." “They were given specific coordinates of targets that should not be struck and they continued to strike them. That struck me as a willful disregard of advice they were getting”

@Malinowski on #YemenWar in NYT
Read 3 tweets
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Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
I just published:

#Flynn’s Work as Turkey’s Agent While a Transition Official: Judge Sullivan Was at Least Half Right

justsecurity.org/61952/flynns-w…
My analysis of Flynn’s Turkey-related activities during the presidential transition is based on great reporting by @JamesVGrimaldi @DionNissenbaum @mideastmargaret @shaneharris @aviswanatha @carolelee @JuliaEAinsley @VeraMBergen
I recommend also reading @emptywheel’s analysis making significant points about Flynn’s registering as an agent of Turkey only in March 2017, still lying on those forms, and conspiracy in which he participated with Turkey agents lasting into those months.

emptywheel.net/2018/12/19/in-…
Read 3 tweets

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Randy Cox
@randypcox
Please listen to this informative interview of Rob Reiner by @funder Rob has a great deal of insight on trump and a realistic take on what’s occurring as well as what we can expect going forward. Let’s hope he’s correct in his assessment. In a normal world he would be 1/ <thread>
2/ The problem is that we’re not operating in an environment that is even close to normal. Start with trump. trump is not normal. Any argument there? Aside from clear evidence of mental disorders, his conduct is criminal. And so are the actions of all those he surrounds himself
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Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
#mueller #russiagate
tinyurl.com/y9zleneo
This article has provoked a lot of commentary today. Most of the commentary from the the left has been alarmist, though some (like @SethAbramson) have been dismissive. I don’t think either response is appropriate. 1/16
There was every reason to expect that Mueller would go into action again shortly after the election; we didn’t need this article to know that. 2/16
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NotMyPresident
@ironstowe
#THREAD

#Manafort #Trump #RussiaConspiracy #MuellerTime
1.#Manafort is a key player in a #Mueller´s complex investigation, serving both as campaign chair and the Transition and as a conduit to #Russia for the #TrumpCampaign

#Manafort #Trump #RussiaConspiracy #MuellerTime
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#Manafort #Trump #RussiaConspiracy #MuellerTime
Read 41 tweets
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BadHombreLands NPS
@BadHombreNPS
The #resistance is needed now more than ever, and not just because the #Mueller investigation is getting closer to blowing this group of grifters out of the water: <THREAD>
Trump, and everyone that supports him are at war with the values that could make us a better nation.

On nearly every level, Trump and his racist republican ilk are doing everything they can to be on the wrong side of history. It's straight up villainy.
Inequality, racial tensions, corporations with too much power, imprisoning brown people in private prisons, healthcare, taxes, the environment, public safety, and of course, common fucking decency. All that and more is at stake.
Read 15 tweets
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Kim Indivisible⚖️
@KimIndivisible
"Manafort and Gates" LITIGATION and POKER -- Both strategic pursuits that count on playing your cards right, and #Mueller is a master player.
THREAD
"Before a civil or criminal trial begins in earnest, there is a period of time in which both parties exchange information about
about the facts of the case. This is called discovery." (criminal.findlaw.com) Before Discovery begins in a criminal case if a guilty defendant finds out the prosecution has a strong case, that defendant will be more likely to plead guilty to lesser charges to get a
lesser punishment. Prosecutors typically do not charge a defendant with their worst crimes initially because if they did that, the Defendant would not be motivated to “flip” – to tell what they know about bigger crime and other people involved in them. In litigation, as in poker
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
The links to look at for the first #indictments by #Mueller are, per source, a money-laundering link between #Manafort, #Flynn & KUSHNER.
1/
The link between/among these three? Trump & Russia. But the fact that the prosecutor has indeed brought indictments is itself huge.
2/
When I first wrote about #Flynn last year, I noted that @POTUS44 had warned Trump about him. SEVERAL TIMES. Obama's no alarmist.
3/
Read 34 tweets

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