WWR's Paul Brandus has been doing a lot of public speaking this Fall. Stand by for a thread
10+ months: nearly a quarter of Trump’s term. How does he compare w/his prior dozen predecessors? And what does the past three-quarters of a century—the post-WWII era—suggest about where we could be headed? Based on a series of recent speeches by WWR’s Paul Brandus, a thread:
Polls tell us much. If you’re like many people, you think some polls are better than others, particularly if they report data that validates what you’d like to believe. /2
So perhaps a fair solution is to take all polls — all of them — and look at them together. The ones you like (but others may dislike) and vice-versa. /3
That’s what Real Clear Politics does. They take all polls, put ‘em in a blender, hit puree — and out comes the Real Clear Politics average. What does it tell us today? /4
Day 310:
President's approval ranges from 36% to 43%
Disapproval: 54% to 59% /5
President's approval ranges from 36% to 43%
Disapproval: 54% to 59% /5
Again: this includes the polls that both sides like and both sides dislike. That seems like a reasonable approach. So the overall average is: /6
President Trump says one poll, Rasmussen, has always been accurate and fair to him. So what does it tell us? /7
Since WWR said earlier that history can be useful — the prior data sets up a couple of observations about what COULD happen to Trump in 2020, and what his long--term legacy might be. So let’s go back in time—it’s very instructive: /8
The President has now been in office for ten months. How does his overall RCP approval of 39.4% compare with his dozen most immediate predecessors at this stage? Truman through Obama? /9
At this stage - 10+ months in - Trump's prior dozen predecessors had an average approval nearly 23 points higher than Trump (Gallup data). Their median approval: 58% /10
That President Trump could be this low this early suggests (obviously) re-election challenges. Again: what does history tell us? /11
In the last three-quarters of a century, there have been four Presidents with low approval ratings who sought re-election (or in Ford's case, election). What happened to them? /12
Of the four post-war Presidents with low approval ratings who sought re-election (or in Ford's case election), not one was elected - and again, Trump's numbers are significantly lower than theirs at this stage /13
We're not done with tonight's history lesson. Trump is also the fifth President to win an election while losing the popular vote. So what happened to the other four popular vote losers ? /14
Of the other four Presidents who were also popular vote losers, only one - George W. Bush - won a second-term, and not by much: just 50.7% of the popular vote /15
All four Presidents who lost the popular vote came into office w/the knowledge that they had been rejected by the majority of Americans. They had no mandate; it made governing more difficult and accomplishments were (generally) few. This dynamic might sound familiar today /16
As for Bush - the only popular vote loser to be re-elected - some speculate that since the U.S. was fighting two wars in 2004, Americans were reluctant to switch horses in midstream. A debatable point—but the larger observation: popular vote losers usually aren't re-elected /17
So in two very important ways 1) extremely low poll numbers early and 2) the albatross of being a popular vote loser — history suggests President Trump is unlikely to win re-election. He certainly COULD win, of course, but the above two history lessons suggests otherwise /18
Sometimes when WWR's Paul Brandus mentions this history/data in speeches, someone who's not hearing what they want to hear will call it “fake news.” The things mentioned above happened. They’re called facts. And "facts," as John Adams used to say, "are stubborn things" /19
Speaking of history — the other four men who lost the popular vote — who came into office with that electoral stigma — here’s another question: What is their historical legacy today? In terms of “presidential greatness,” how do they rank? /20
.@CSPAN back in January released a survey of historians. Ranked the 21st-greatest President, John Quincy Adams is in the middle of the pack. But the others -- Rutherford Hayes, Benjamin Harrison and George W. Bush - are all in the bottom third. We're not taking Lincoln here /21
What determines Presidential greatness, by the way? It's no one thing, but many things that blend together over time, helping to produce a long-term legacy /22
The criteria that helps determine greatness (or lack thereof) - as shown in prior tweet - will one day be applied by historians to President Trump. Unquestionably his supporters and detractors already have views on these matters /END (for now)
WWR's Paul Brandus has had the great honor of speaking at seven presidential libraries and numerous corporate/association events. Need a speaker on history/economics/current events? Always informative/entertaining. Please contact Jasmine - thank you
