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Simon Usherwood @Usherwood
, 10 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
So the #A50 bus got crashed yesterday, but why?

Let's start with the obvious culprit in all this: the DUP. Why would they block the new text?

If we assume HMG showed text to DUP beforehand, then only three options:

1) they misunderstood
2) they understood, then changed minds
3) they understood and always planned to block

1) sounds possible, but DUP say they knew what's what (…): given long experience in such things, hard to believe they bought a pup

2) also possible, especially if early leaks led to broad commentariat view that text meant NI being in CU/SM, caused doubts. But a gvt lawyer should have covered this base long before

3) equally possible, but no clear signal of what price might be to unblock. Also unclear if DUP cld walk back from this,

Of course, it might be that DUP didn't see text before, but they say they did, and both HMG/EU27 wld have wanted to make sure DUP was on board, so v.unlikely

Last Q is whether DUP was actual issue. Evidence of other sticking points (eg CJEU powers: ), so border might have been handy cover

This I find difficult to credit: other points look like long-standing ones, so mvt over past week sounded like enough to get past these.

Also, everyone's really pushing for deal, so spoilers not coming from principals

In summary, #A50 is hard to control, except negatively

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