Thread by @SharpFootball

I have a very sad thread for Jaguars fans. It's about the 4th quarter, situational awareness, play calling and predictability. Stay tuned for the very end, where these issues were (unfortunately) highlighted last June.

The Jaguars were up 20-10 in the 4th quarter. I'm going to showcase every single snap they took when the clock was moving, highlighting time left on play clock + play call itself. This will seem like Groundhog Day, but that's not until Feb 2nd.

[following a 1&10 run for 3 yds]
13:04 - 2&7 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 45 (20 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
7:59 - 2&9 - <snapped w 8 seconds on play clock> - pass complete for 20 yds

[following a 1st down w a moving clock]
7:18 - 1&10 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - 1 yd run

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
6:41 - 2&9 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 27 (35 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for -1 yd]
5:20 - 2&11 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass tipped at JAX 26 (17 yds downfield)

Every. Single. First. Down. Was. A. Run. From. Shotgun. You think the Patriots didn't figure that out? Look at the totals on those four 1st & 10 runs as the quarter progressed:
2 yds
1 yd
1 yd
-1 yd

Every. Single. Second. Down. Was. A. Long. Pass. Downfield. These are all 2nd and long situations with a 4Q lead. Goals are either: bleed clock or set up 3rd and manageable. Instead, look at the distance of these passes:
20 yds
20 yds
35 yds
17 yds

So now on 3rd and long, with a stopped clock, what do the Jaguars do? 100% pass, only 1 was complete. The punt following that pass was snapped w 6 seconds on play clock. The others were punted w stopped clock. No passes resulted in 1st down. *3 punts in 4Q with a lead*

The Jaguars had 6 snaps in the 4th quarter, with a moving clock & a lead (if you include the 1 punt). They NEVER ran the play clock to even 5 seconds, let alone inside 5 seconds. 4 of the 6 snaps were with 9-13 seconds on the play clock.

We've got it all here. Poor situational awareness (clock management). Highly predictable play calling. Inferior play calling. The Jags can say they were "playing to win" with the 2nd down deep shots on 100% of 2nd downs, but that is not how you "really" win in this situation.

Each summer I write a Football Preview book. Spend 5+ months on it, uncovering every angle/element I can. Last year's is here: amazon.com/Warren-Sharps-…
If you bought the book last summer, flip to the final page in the Jaguars chapter.

In that final page, I predicted (using analytics at Sharp Football Stats) that the Jaguars defense would face the 3rd easiest schedule of offenses. As it turned out, they actually did face the 3rd easiest schedule, via sharpfootballstats.com/2017-strength-…

I forecast that the Jags defense should give the team the chance to win a lot of games. But I highlighted one thing in particular. "2nd half play calling when leading" and concerns I had about what I saw from Nathaniel Hackett in 2017.

I'm attaching that last page of the Jaguars chapter. Literally the last 4 paragraphs in this chapter are dedicated to the play calling issues. Start here: "The play calling was beyond bad in terms of predictability and likely cost the Jaguars several wins"

In the end, the issues with predictable 2nd half play calling when leading bit the Jaguars. The play calling in this final game to GET the lead was outstanding. Aggressive & creative. The play calling in the 4Q to HOLD the lead was the exact opposite.

The Jaguars were a better team in 2017 than I anticipated before the year. Blake Bortles played better than expected. The team WELL exceeded expectations. They held a 20-10 fourth quarter lead, on the road, with the ball against THE DYNASTY w/ a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.

Last July, after the 2017 Football Preview was released, I wrote the following article: "Predictable Offense & Prevent Defense: No Team Blows Second Half Leads Like the Jaguars"
sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2017/pred…

That article showcased not just the offensive issues when playing with a second half lead, but the defensive issues as well. See the below graphic as an example of their 2016 problems.

I concluded that article with the attached quote, citing "predictable formations and play calls offensively, and utterly painful prevent pass defense" in the second half, when leading, could prevent the Jags from winning a Div Champ (wrong) Conf Champ & Lombardi.

The other element to this was the BIG story before the game. The one I wrote this entire (attached) article about. Trailing the entire 2nd half + NO GRONK, the Patriots had to use 11 personnel to come back, which is THE massive strength of the Jags DEF.

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by @SharpFootball view original on Twitter

The Patriots had to play the game the way the Jaguars wanted them to play it: with 3 wides. And yet Jacksonville's defense still couldn't get it done and the Jaguars offensive play calling/game management fell apart.

All in all, a GREAT season for the Jaguars. I'm sure I'll have plenty more advice for the team in the 2018 Football Preview book, due out this summer. Hopefully they address the issues. But to come so close this season and to fall just short, I'm sure, is utterly heartbreaking.

Additionally, I read a quote after the game that said "a lot of Jags defenders" were upset that the team moved away from man-to-man and played more zone coverage in the 2nd half. This is EXACTLY what I was getting at in 2016 with the "prevent defense" article/graphics.

While I take an analytical, measured approach...to repeat the same tactical coaching mistakes from 2016 is MIND NUMBING. It's AGGRAVATING as a neutral analyst. These should have been brought to their attention (I tried) & fixed. I would be MAD as hell if I were a fan. No excuses.

If you want to take a deeper dive into this game (or PHI/MIN), the interactive advanced stats box score is for you -> sharpfootballstats.com/sharp-box-scor…
Example: First down plays by half:
1H: 47% pass, 88% pass success rate, 12.8 YPA
2H: 67% run, 10% run success rate, 2.5 YPC