We posted this analysis of Mueller's Russia indictment late yesterday evening. I'm tweeting it again this morning for those who may have missed it. lawfareblog.com/russian-influe…
Here are a few additional thoughts, which also draw on the discussion I had with David Kris, @RosenzweigP, and @pwnallthethings on the @lawfareblog Podcast yesterday. lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcas…
(1) The forensics reflected in this indictment are mind-bogglingly impressive. The indictment does not simply reflect a retroactive investigation of a crime. It almost certainly reflects intense NSA penetration of the target in real time.
It was a decision to declassify a lot of this material to allow this indictment to happen, and thus to put adversaries on notice about the degree of this capability. That decision both has potentially salutary deterrent effects and potentially unfortunate informative effects.
From Mueller's point of view, however, it is another huge show of informational strength. The public—and the President—should understand this indictment as the small tip of a very large iceberg in terms of what Mueller knows and what evidence and intelligence he has.
(2) It is a mistake to infer from this indictment what that iceberg looks like. It's extremely tempting, of course. And I have my own instincts on the subject. But we are operating at such an informational deficit with respect to Mueller's team that our predictions are worthless.
Mueller's actions yesterday are consistent, as @RosenzweigP suggested on the podcast, with the investigation's nearing its end. They are also consistent, as @pwnallthethings and Kris responded, with its heating up. We simply don't know what the iceberg really looks like.
So if you see someone on TV or read an article asserting confidently what's going to happen next, my advice is to distrust the speaker or writer. Get comfortable here with uncertainty.
(3) This is a frustrating thing, but it is also a good thing. Nietzsche once wrote: "Once and for all, there are many things I choose not to know. Wisdom sets limits even on knowledge." We want to know what Mueller knows. We want to know what the iceberg looks like.
But it is good that we don't know right now. It is good that we have a group of professionals—real pros who can actually keep secrets, pros who can get the truth and act on it and speak with authority when they are ready to speak—to make legal judgments about L'Affaire Russe.
It is good that we have responsible reporters doing excellent journalism and not dumping material out too early. It is good that sometimes they get—through witnesses and lawyers—a keyhole view of what the special counsel's office is up to.
But ultimately, it is also good that they have only that keyhole window, that Mueller knows a whole lot more than they do—and thus than we do.
So be patient. And be of good cheer. Wisdom sets limits even on knowledge.
