There's no question the Gates plea puts enormous pressure on Manafort to cut a deal or else spend the rest of his life in prison. And remember that Trump told friends—per NBC—that Manafort could hurt him if he flipped. So this breaking news is a big deal. nytimes.com/2018/02/23/us/…
2/ What many in media are likely getting wrong—apparently because of claims made by a single source—is Gates has little to offer Mueller on the Russia case. Gates is a Manafort co-conspirator who was Manafort's deputy on the Trump campaign—what Manafort knows, Gates likely knows.
3/ That is, Gates was conspiring with Manafort on crimes involving Russian and Ukrainian figures for years—and the cover-up of these crimes extended into the Trump campaign. So why—if Manafort made Gates his deputy on the Trump campaign—wouldn't he confide in him? Makes no sense.
4/ While Mueller may well want to flip Manafort, Manafort is *still a primary target*—meaning it's unlikely he could get a deal from Mueller that keeps him out of prison. That makes him a bit less likely to flip. So how much Gates knows about the Russia case *could* still matter.
5/ News reports, apparently based on a single anonymous source, suggesting Gates has nothing to offer on Russia are therefore—effectively—claims that unless Gates can be used to flip Manafort, his utility on Russia is nil and Trump remains "safe" until Manafort's case is done.
6/ As Manafort's case could take a long time—trials rarely start when they should, especially if they're discovery monsters (doc-heavy)—and because appeals also drag on, the claim Gates knows little on Russia is a claim Trump's safe from Manafort for a long time unless he flips.
7/ So as a former criminal investigator/criminal attorney I game it out this way if I'm Mueller: how bad do I want Trump? Trump implies Manafort can take him down—but Manafort's old enough that I have to offer him *very* little prison time to flip him. So how bad do I want Trump?
8/ On the other hand, if the single anonymous source the media is relying on is *wrong*, and Gates *does* know almost everything Manafort knows, Gates can deliver a conviction for Mueller on Manafort *and* help nab Trump without losing Manafort as a primary target. So—a big deal.
9/ I want to be fair to the NYT: a week ago they were down on Gates having any Russia info; folks like me took them to task; and today, I'm sure based not on folks like me but their own sources, they're back to reality—noting that there's reason to think Gates can help on Russia.
10/ My point is, were I at the Times and a source told me Gates can't help Mueller on Russia—only Manafort's fraud charges—I'd not report that, as it doesn't comport with any of the facts we have about Gates and his critical role during the Trump campaign (e.g. at the RNC). {end}
UPDATE/ On MSNBC, a NYT reporter intimated the source for the claim "Gates knows nothing about Russia" could well have been none other than... Ty Cobb, White House attorney.
In other words, if Trump is lying to his lawyers (and he is), Cobb doesn't know what he's talking about.
In other words, if Trump is lying to his lawyers (and he is), Cobb doesn't know what he's talking about.
