Thread by @ChadBown

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Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs are Counterproductive. Here are 5 **More** Things you Need to Know.

(with charts)

My latest

And thread also contains some NEW data facts...

piie.com/blogs/trade-in…

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DEFINITION: I define “steel” and “aluminum” just as Trump did in the Section 232 investigations.

If Trump imposes tariffs on steel of 25% and aluminum of 10% on imports from all sources, then 100% of those product imports will be subject to special tariffs.

So what's new?

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What is the case historically?

I looked at data

#1 Steel has been the largest user of special protection for decades

• More than 60% of US imports of steel are **already** covered by previously-imposed special protection
• Ie, antidumping and countervailing duties

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#2 More than 90% of US steel imports from China are already subject to special tariffs

Let me say that again

#2 More than 90% of US steel imports from China are already subject to special tariffs

That is why Trump’s “national security” tariffs primarily hurt US allies

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What else did I learn?

• While also extremely high, “only” 54% of US steel imports from all other (non-China) sources were already subject to US AD/CVD as of 2017

• This has increased from 2012, when the level was 30%

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What else did I learn?

#3 Trading partners vary considerably as to who has already been hit with special US steel tariffs

• Canada ($5.2 billion) was the top supplier to US steel market in 2017

• None of Canada’s steel products were subject to special tariffs.

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What else did I learn?

#3 Trading partners vary considerably as to who has already been hit with special US steel tariffs (cont.)

• Germany, Mexico and Brazil have less than 40% of steel exports subject to prior US special tariffs.

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What else did I learn?

• China was only the 10th largest supplier of steel to the US market in 2017 ($976 million),

• Again, 94% China’s steel exports were already subject to special US tariffs

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What else did I learn?

Trump’s claim that the objective is to protect national security is belied by the fact that the new tariffs would impose more than 54% of the total trade losses in steel – or $6.1 billion – on US military allies of the EU, Canada, Japan, S Korea alone.

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What did I learn about ALUMINUM?

#4 Aluminum has only recently become a user of special protection

•only since 2009
•as of the end of 2017, 15 percent of US imports of aluminum were covered by special tariffs

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What else did I learn about ALUMINUM?

#5 Aluminum’s special protection to date has been directly exclusively toward China

• nearly 96% of US aluminum imports from China are already covered by special tariffs
• Trump’s 10% tariff would impact other trading partners more

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What else did I learn about ALUMINUM?

• Canada is the largest source of US aluminum imports at $6.9 billion, or 40% of US aluminum imports

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What else did I learn about ALUMINUM?

Trump’s national security tariffs would impose nearly 50 percent of the total trade losses in aluminum – or $1.4 billion – on US military allies of the European Union, Canada, Japan, South Korea alone.

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The main take away?

Trump’s tariffs will help, not hurt, China by making global cooperation to push Beijing on its trade policies more difficult.

Trump has turned the world’s attention away from China. Partners are now focused on retaliating against the United States

/end