Thread by @nicktolhurst

Thread:
1/
So I risk upsetting some fellow remainers here but I have to admit I have some sympathy for the “will of the people” argument.

Yes I get all the advisory referendum, #CambridgeAnalytica tainted, red bus of lies arguments - they’re correct but it’s simply not enough..

2/

..but I think remainers dont get that theres enough people who don’t get these arguments to make simply cancelling or a referendum rerun even if technically possible, politically toxic.

It can happen but will lead to a serious crisis. Problem is #brexit will anyway lead to..

3/
#brexit will lead to a crisis anyway. Theres too many undeliverables from what was promised pre referendum. In a febrile nationalist environment idea tho that UK cld turn back to EU will be seen as equivalent to “siding with the enemy halfway through a war”.

It won’t happen.

4/

The possibility of public mood changing quickly enough to ease out of #brexit while not impossible - seems unlikely - & anything more than 35-40% still backing Leave will be difficult to ignore.

So what should concerned remainers, & particularly remainers, do?

5/

The key should be to put pressure on govt to maximise UKs room for #brexit manoeuvre as much as possible. Chances of UK staying in EU or EEA greater the longer a transition phase is - not from heightening debate on referendum.

If we must have referendum then better a ...

6/

Better a referendum that keeps open options while accepting Leave. A rerun with remain will be toxic

Campaign positive case for CU for Ireland & EEA for economy

British care about democracy but they wont die in a ditch for stopping a customs union - not the sane majority.

7/

Long game is - short term commitment to EEA + commitment to #Brexit. If you can get that thru you can keep UK in EUsystem.
Do a referendum rerun you’ll make it even more cliff edge, toxic & likely lose if economy hasn’t tanked (Brits are proud enough to reject EU even then).

8/

Longer hard #brexit can be avoided the better. Thats they key. Neither Tories or Labour are telling truth. Most MPs know UK needs to align itself with EU. Do that smoothly there’s a way back in / semi-in.

A hard #brexit not just costly - it makes re-entry very difficult/slow

9/ campaign for EEA membership with slight FofM changes. Business, social organisations, universities, unions can get behind that-they can’t get behind cancelling #brexit.

10/ May has already laid ground for this with her “frictionless trade as possible” that’s Remain but it makes more sense to argue that’s EEA. The floating soft leavers can buy into that in a way they can’t buy into full “turn back Remain”.

11/ another aim: argue for a CU extension - solves Irish border problem. Again the closer UK aligned with EU in a post #Brexit deal better. & better than risking hard Brexit by pushing for total Brexit cancellation

A long Brexit process can (likely will) lead to eventual remain.