1. As someone who studies authoritarian regimes & the breakdown of democracy, I’ve been warning for years about how Trump threatens American democracy. The defining tipping point moment now may be imminent. This isn’t a drill.
2. Trump is cornered & may fire Rosenstein, Sessions, or Mueller; or pardon a key figure. Republicans have failed literally every test of holding Trump accountable for violating democratic norms. It’s been a steady, relentless erosion, as Republicans watch it fade but do nothing.
3. Democracy is like a sand castle: takes a long time to build, longer to perfect, but can be washed away comparatively quickly. The Trump wave has washed some of it away, but this week could be the tide coming in. In such moments, the ruling party’s response decides what happens
4. The current moment reminds me of Erdogan in Turkey, as he fell under investigation. He literally called it a “deep state witch hunt.” Then he fired prosecutors & investigators & replaced them with those who would investigate his political rivals. That’s Trump’s strategy.
5. Democracy died in Turkey. That rapid politicization of rule of law was a key tipping point. Impunity for leaders is one key separating factor between despotism & democracy. Rule of law underpins all genuine democracies. Trump is ramping up his attacks on it every day.
6. I’ve long argued that a national security crisis or onset of military action widens the menu of choices the public will accept. That, along with a months-long campaign to politicize rule of law, have paved the way for an unthinkable moment—greased by fresh military action.
7. American democracy is far more robust than Turkey’s; but we are heading down the same path of creeping authoritarianism. Eventually, it stops creeping and just becomes authoritarianism.
8. So, if Republicans won’t protect rule of law with a pre-emptive bill & Trump fires Mueller/Rosenstein/Sessions & issues pardon(s), citizens are the ones who must protect democracy with the largest peaceful protests in American history.
9. American democracy isn’t likely to disappear, but that sandcastle could quickly become a lumpy mess. This moment is the most worried I’ve been about democracy in the United States since Trump took office. So we need to be sure to act to protect it, before it is washed away.
