1)
OK, so I think I see what is really going on in the Middle East at the moment and how things tie together
First let's roll back the clock and look at what Trump's international challenges were when he came to office
1. ISIS (Syria)
2. North Korea
3. Iran
OK, so I think I see what is really going on in the Middle East at the moment and how things tie together
First let's roll back the clock and look at what Trump's international challenges were when he came to office
1. ISIS (Syria)
2. North Korea
3. Iran
2)
On ISIS, Trump took the gloves off the US forces and within a year they were wiped out
Pockets may remain and no doubt we'll be seeing echoes of them for a long while, but as a vast caliphate in the Levant, it's over
End state in Syria left to resolve, we'll get back to that
On ISIS, Trump took the gloves off the US forces and within a year they were wiped out
Pockets may remain and no doubt we'll be seeing echoes of them for a long while, but as a vast caliphate in the Levant, it's over
End state in Syria left to resolve, we'll get back to that
3)
So we're on to North Korea, but Syria creeps back in for a moment
When Trump launched the cruise missile strike after the last chemical attack it was done whilst he was dining with China's President Xi
It sent a clear message that Trump wasn't to be messed with
So we're on to North Korea, but Syria creeps back in for a moment
When Trump launched the cruise missile strike after the last chemical attack it was done whilst he was dining with China's President Xi
It sent a clear message that Trump wasn't to be messed with
4)
He's a different beast to Obama
When Trump draws a red line he means it
It was a clear message that it was in China's interest to start reigning in their rogue step-child in NK
Tariffs & massive pressure followed, insults flew, people called Trump crazy
in the end Kim blinked
He's a different beast to Obama
When Trump draws a red line he means it
It was a clear message that it was in China's interest to start reigning in their rogue step-child in NK
Tariffs & massive pressure followed, insults flew, people called Trump crazy
in the end Kim blinked
5)
Behind the scenes the deal is very advanced, Kim's publicly talking denuclearisation, summit meeting before the end of May, but will be mainly for the media optics
To all effects and purposes North Korea is done, or as #QAnon put it
Behind the scenes the deal is very advanced, Kim's publicly talking denuclearisation, summit meeting before the end of May, but will be mainly for the media optics
To all effects and purposes North Korea is done, or as #QAnon put it
6)
So ISIS done, NK done
This Trump guy doesn't wait around
So we're on to Iran
The Syrian war has been a dual proxy war that's gone back & forth
The two wars are
Saudi Arabia v Iran
USA v Russia
The focus has ebbed & flowed back and forth while that war has dragged on
So ISIS done, NK done
This Trump guy doesn't wait around
So we're on to Iran
The Syrian war has been a dual proxy war that's gone back & forth
The two wars are
Saudi Arabia v Iran
USA v Russia
The focus has ebbed & flowed back and forth while that war has dragged on
7)
Others have covered the silent coup that Trump & Kushner engineered in SA
That ripples into the Vegas incident etc but I won't go into it to deeply
Suffice to say that SA is now onside with the US
So Iran is the next goal in this chess game
Others have covered the silent coup that Trump & Kushner engineered in SA
That ripples into the Vegas incident etc but I won't go into it to deeply
Suffice to say that SA is now onside with the US
So Iran is the next goal in this chess game
8)
So Syria
What's most important to the US is that the end state there is stable - lessons have been learned from Iraq and Afghanistan about what happens when you leave a vacuum
Russia also wants a similar outcome
The difference is that Russia want Assad in, the US want him out
So Syria
What's most important to the US is that the end state there is stable - lessons have been learned from Iraq and Afghanistan about what happens when you leave a vacuum
Russia also wants a similar outcome
The difference is that Russia want Assad in, the US want him out
9)
One thing you quickly learn about Trump is that he never telegraphs what he's about to do
Him floating, publicly, the idea of withdrawing troops was very out of character
Russia & Syria want the US out - the last thing they'd do would now is jeopardize that
One thing you quickly learn about Trump is that he never telegraphs what he's about to do
Him floating, publicly, the idea of withdrawing troops was very out of character
Russia & Syria want the US out - the last thing they'd do would now is jeopardize that
10)
But other players want to keep the US involved
There has been a pattern in Syria of chemical attacks happening when US commitment has been bought into question
So Trump floats the idea and bang, just a few days later, like clockwork an attack
But other players want to keep the US involved
There has been a pattern in Syria of chemical attacks happening when US commitment has been bought into question
So Trump floats the idea and bang, just a few days later, like clockwork an attack
11)
But they knew this was very likely, it had been factored in
It provides a window of opportunity to achieve the US' only remaining goal in Syria - forcing Assad out
They are happy for Russia to sort out the Syrian end state, but they can't let Assad remain
So "Animal Assad"
But they knew this was very likely, it had been factored in
It provides a window of opportunity to achieve the US' only remaining goal in Syria - forcing Assad out
They are happy for Russia to sort out the Syrian end state, but they can't let Assad remain
So "Animal Assad"
12)
Once Trump gives someone a nickname, it's pretty much over for them
So the sabre rattling, the missile tweets, are all choreographed to give the impression that Trump is nuts enough bomb the hell out of Syria and start a hot war with Russia
There reports that Assad has bolted
Once Trump gives someone a nickname, it's pretty much over for them
So the sabre rattling, the missile tweets, are all choreographed to give the impression that Trump is nuts enough bomb the hell out of Syria and start a hot war with Russia
There reports that Assad has bolted
13)
That may have happened, or it might soon happen
And that is the objective
Whatever the truth on the chemical attack the "Animal Assad" badge will stick, he cannot be part of the end state and if he is outside of the country his position is much weakened
That may have happened, or it might soon happen
And that is the objective
Whatever the truth on the chemical attack the "Animal Assad" badge will stick, he cannot be part of the end state and if he is outside of the country his position is much weakened
14)
If Assad is still in Syria, expect more sabre rattling, expect surgical strikes on weapons depots, munitions factories etc
Places that will do damage to the regime, but cause minimal casualties
It will be focused, it'll be surgical, it'll pile pressure with minimal deaths
If Assad is still in Syria, expect more sabre rattling, expect surgical strikes on weapons depots, munitions factories etc
Places that will do damage to the regime, but cause minimal casualties
It will be focused, it'll be surgical, it'll pile pressure with minimal deaths
15)
For Russia, having Assad as part of the picture was always a long shot
Whether he was involved with the chemicals or not is now unimportant
Him remaining in the picture has become impossible
For Russia, having Assad as part of the picture was always a long shot
Whether he was involved with the chemicals or not is now unimportant
Him remaining in the picture has become impossible
16)
Knowing it was a long shot, Russia will have a plan B, and they will, reluctantly, sacrifice Assad for control of Syria
The US is more than happy to give them that control
Once Assad flees, expect things to switch to calls for a No Fly Zone over Syria making return difficult
Knowing it was a long shot, Russia will have a plan B, and they will, reluctantly, sacrifice Assad for control of Syria
The US is more than happy to give them that control
Once Assad flees, expect things to switch to calls for a No Fly Zone over Syria making return difficult
17)
Russia will be allowed to stabilise Syria under a new regime as long as Assad is not part of the end state, then the US has bigger fish to fry
The Syria crisis also provides cover for moving military assets into the region, they aren't really there for Syria, but for Iran
Russia will be allowed to stabilise Syria under a new regime as long as Assad is not part of the end state, then the US has bigger fish to fry
The Syria crisis also provides cover for moving military assets into the region, they aren't really there for Syria, but for Iran
18)
So what's happening in Iran?
There were the massive protests a few months back, the people are very unhappy with the regime and want it gone
The US spoke out in support of that protest
Trump is trying to undo the stupid deal Obama made with them
So what's happening in Iran?
There were the massive protests a few months back, the people are very unhappy with the regime and want it gone
The US spoke out in support of that protest
Trump is trying to undo the stupid deal Obama made with them
19)
Those protest petered out, but it remains a powder keg, ready to blow
And what's happened since?
forbes.com/sites/ellenrwa…
Those protest petered out, but it remains a powder keg, ready to blow
And what's happened since?
forbes.com/sites/ellenrwa…
21)
The regime is getting desperate and is striking out in it's throes
The military assets being positioned under the cover of the Syrian crisis will only increase pressure on Tehran
reuters.com/article/us-sau…
The regime is getting desperate and is striking out in it's throes
The military assets being positioned under the cover of the Syrian crisis will only increase pressure on Tehran
reuters.com/article/us-sau…
22)
The US will back & support their Saudi allies as tensions with Iran rise, but for every sanction, with racketing of pressure, as the currency crisis deepens the internal rebellion will also be stirred
The stage is set for the protests to spill over into an actual revolution
The US will back & support their Saudi allies as tensions with Iran rise, but for every sanction, with racketing of pressure, as the currency crisis deepens the internal rebellion will also be stirred
The stage is set for the protests to spill over into an actual revolution
23)
Trump doesn't mess around, he doesn't kick the can down the road
ISIS, NK, Iran - all three big international issues he faced on day 1 will be done and dusted way before the end of his first term
Trump doesn't mess around, he doesn't kick the can down the road
ISIS, NK, Iran - all three big international issues he faced on day 1 will be done and dusted way before the end of his first term
- END -
Hope that analysis made sense
Hope that analysis made sense
unroll this for me please
