Thread by @jonworth

So the Lords voted pretty overwhelmingly (347👍, 225 👎) today that 🇬🇧 should stay in a Customs Union with 🇪🇺.

What is this going to mean?

A quick thread.
1/9

Most obviously it makes the chances of 🇬🇧 having a Customs Union with 🇪🇺 marginally higher. That's welcome.

But I think the significance is more tactical.

2/9

First, this all depends on how the Commons reacts.

Does it try to fight back against Lords, and Withdrawal Bill drags on? Or does Govt back down, knowing there would probably be a majority in the Commons for a CU if it wanted it?

The latter looks more likely.
3/9

If that is so, plenty of Tories are going to scream.

Although the devil will be in the detail, essentially 💥 goes the Liam Fox and Jacob Rees Mogg dream of Empire 2.0 and trade deals around the world.

In other words, it increases civil war within the Tory Party.
4/9

As The Guardian so comprehensively reported this week, #Brexit timetable in Parliament already very tight:
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

And the timetable on the 🇪🇺 side is no better. So for Brexiters there's no time to lose.

So Tories'll scream, but not depose May (yet?)
5/9

But Lords having extracted one concession from the government, what next?

Customs Union on its own does not solve the Irish Border issue. Staying in the Single Market would. And 🇪🇺 has said no border solution, no Brexit deal.

So with the ⏰ ticking to 29 March 2019...
6/9

...that's the next step.

Keep slicing away at the Hard Brexiters fantasy until there is no more left. 🔪

Then will May survive? Will Davis stay? Johnson? The DUP?
🇬🇧 is then so very far away from what Brexiters wanted
7/9

Then the "meaningful vote" in Parliament on deal comes into view, or even prospect of a further referendum.

Staying in Single Market and the Customs Union but not being in 🇪🇺 is Brexit in Name Only. Something no-one wants. Brexit collapses under its own contradictions.
8/9

This is the way out of this sorry mess.

@Andrew_Adonis sees it. Dominic Grieve too I think.

Today could prove to be tactically important. Not because of the Customs Union, but for what it means for Brexit overall.
9/9