Thread by @Usherwood

Since we all seem to be back in the room, let's run through the main problems to be addressed in Art.50:

1/

These fall into 3 exciting categories:
- problems in getting to a deal
- problems with transition
- problems after transition

2/

First two categories need to be resolved by March 2019, while the third needs partial resolution, since it's entangled with the other bits

3/

Most of us are thinking about 1st group (problems in getting to a deal), since they're most pressing

4/

The biggie is the Irish dimension, which requires either one party to significantly move its preferences, or some improbably rapid technological progress

5/

(note: latter won't happen, so it's the former)

6/

There's also a pile of outstanding issues on governance, esp on CJEU role, that isn't moving very fast

7/

Of course, this is only the Art.50 stuff: there's also a very big legislative programme w/in UK that needs to be completed to manage the domestic aspect of post-membership status of EU acquis, but that's beyond this thread

8/

Even if you resolve all of this category, Art.50 isn't done, b/c you have the second pile of problems, on transition

9/

While a text is agreed, it's now evident that extension isn't an option w/in this framework (because it infringes on EU provisions on third-state relations, plus WTO rules on provisional arrangements, even before we get to politics)

10/

That means there's no fail-safe for Dec 2020, to avoid new cliff-edge. Given deep uncertainty about how future relationship talks might go, that's a problem that requires an answer by start of transition

11/

At this point, might suffice just to have a plan for how to address this, since there's nothing right now

12/

And in the background, we have the third category, of problems on the future relationship

13/

As this week (and indeed even week since June 2016) have shown, UK can't decide what it wants, which hugely complicates progress on building a framework

14/

And delay on that means transition will be less likely to suffice in time to resolve & ratify it all

15/

Clearly, future relationship also impacts on Irish dimension, so the choices stretch forward and back in the process

16/

Oh, and we need some clear mvt on IE in next 4 weeks if there's to be a final Art.50 text by Oct

17/

Short version:

the show is very much not over

/end