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Tony Addison @TonysAngle
, 5 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
On UK trade arrangements after Brexit, we need more clarity from the Govt. on SERVICES, in which UK is leader (both financial & non-financial services). Chequers plan focuses on goods #R4Today @MishalHusainBBC 1/5
EU accounts for more than 35% of UK's services exports (> share exported to US). This vastly exceeds the shares of the smaller economies (Oz etc.) with which UK is seeking post-Brexit trade deals #R4Today 2/5
The majority of the UK's services exports are in non-financial services (approx. 70%+). That's legal services, media, architecture, tech etc which provide good & mostly well-paid jobs. These services exports are growing (c. @ONS) #R4Today 3/5
UK runs consistent trade surpluses in non-financial services, inc. many services traded with the EU. Yet, Govt. "ambition" is to leave the European single market in services. #R4Today 4/5
And UK financial services, in which UK runs steady trade surpluses with Europe, provides thousands of jobs & much tax revenue. Yet, Govt. intends to leave the single market. #Brexit debate over-focuses on goods & not enough on Brexit's harm to trade/jobs in SERVICES #R4Today 5/5
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More from @TonysAngle see all

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Services: 80% of UK economy (architecture, management consulting, legal, creative etc) & big services surplus UK runs with RoW & EU. So why does Govt want to damage economy in #Brexit plan being discussed by cabinet today (focusing on goods only?) ft.com/content/2ce78f… via @FT
And anyway services get bundled in today's global value chains for high-value high-tech goods (c. Aircraft engines & their maintenance) which is what UK government is supposed to be promoting via its (mysterious) industrial policy announced back in 2016.
If you wanted a better trade & industrial policy for UK (which is desirable to create high-paying jobs via higher productivity) you wouldn't put it together in the way that #Brexit is taking us (raising barriers to trading with UK's big EU markets).
Read 8 tweets
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Two years on from #Brexit referendum vote, UK growth has slumped. Lowest of any G7 country. Lower than Eurozone. Likely to fall further (c. Airbus). But hey, no worries, it's all #ProjectFear say the #Brexiteers (graphic @WSJ)
Still, young Brits can always pick fruit - rather than look forward to careers in high-tech industries like Airbus. Well done #Brexiteers (but hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Consumer spending slumped after Brexit Referendum #PeoplesVoteMarch 🇬🇧🇪🇺 (Well done #Brexiteers. But hey, no worries it's all #ProjectFear isn't it?)
Read 5 tweets
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The Brexiteers are correct: if UK doesn't leave the customs union - enabling it to make its own trade deals - then there is no real #Brexit
(Trouble is: leaving CU will damage UK prosperity, jobs & Ireland. Is this the "will of the people"?).
And here is a succinct summary of the Government's customs union conundrum (of its own making) @SebastianEPayne ft.com/content/d07b5c… via @financialtimes #Brexit
And UK can't quickly make up for lost trade with EU-27 after #Brexit if it does leave the customs union, as this @FT graphic shows:
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Brexit Irony No.521:
Brexit would make Metropolitan Elitism worse-

The Brexit vote was against our London-centric system. So if there's an economic hit because of a Brexit London voted against, Westminster would make sure the London Banking sector survived but everywhere else...
Many of the problems that pushed people to vote Brexit had nothing to do with the EU. One of those problems was the government choosing to protect the banks who caused the crash with bailouts while ordinary people just got austerity.
The rich took irresponsible risks with the country's future, but they were protected either by moving their money away or by the government and it was those with least who suffered the most.
Sound familiar? #Brexit
Read 5 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#Brexit rentrée today - what are the objectives for @dominraab and @OllyRobbins?
There are two main objectives for UK side
The most important is to stop @michelbarnier and European Commission totally killing off the Chequers white paper
Read 6 tweets
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Reading and tweeting HMG's White Paper.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Starting with the conclusions (always the best bit)
1 Principled and practical are TM's new adjectves for #Brexit, which sounds conciliatory and is the sort of thing the EU do want to hear.
2
a Frictionless trade at the border (specific border not stated)
b UK out CAP & Fisheries, but in on crime & terror & shared prosperity fund
c No hard Border between NI & I, but protect the Union
d End of CJEU in UK, return "accountability" to the various elected assemblies
Read 59 tweets
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#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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