Gartner just released a survey on enterprise blockchain adoption that I find highly reassuring and encouraging for the technology. But not for the reasons you might expect. finextra.com/pressarticle/7…
The Gartner survey found that only 1% of CIOs were adopting blockchain anywhere, and only 23% had any plans to do so. finextra.com/pressarticle/7…
The bad news is that blockchain is massively overhyped.
The bad news is that blockchain is massively overhyped.
And contrary to rosy predictions that blockchain will soon disrupt and transform every industry, enterprises on the line for real financial and operational commitments are recognizing the technology's current limitations. But we knew that.
If your model for blockchain and cryptocurrency adoption doesn't price in massive likelihood of delays, wrong turns, and dead ends, you've drunk your own crypto-Kool Aid.
The good news in the Gartner survey is *why* so many enterprises are holding off. It's because blockchain is hard. And it's hard because it actually is a transformative technology.
Gartner found that 23% of CIOs said blockchain requires more new skills than any other tech they're looking at, and 14% said it requires the greatest change in the culture of the IT department. It's not just a new database, folks; it's a new way of thinking. And that takes time.
A corollary to William Gibson's, "the future is already here but not evenly distributed," is that the path to an even distribution won't be smooth. E.g., the first 1% adoption may take longer than the next 80%. Sometimes development hurtles forward prematurely and then stops.
Of course, the fact that real blockchain adoption in organizations is less than one might think from the pages of business and technology publications, chatter in Silicon Valley, and my Twitter feed doesn't settle a bet on the future one way or another.
The long-term success or failure of blockchain technology will only come from demonstrable value creation, or a demonstrable lack thereof relative to alternatives. (And by the way, that's true of cryptocurrencies too. They will thrive or fail based on practice, not theory.)
The best periods to innovate are when innovation is cheap and has the intellectual space to take hold. Those are almost never the boom times. The pendulum swinging against blockchain hype should, in the long run, be a blessing.
Part of me, of course, wishes my book on the blockchain as a new architecture of trust came out a year ago, as hype was building to a fever pitch, rather than 6 months from now. Ultimately, though, deep understanding is more important than trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
