Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Aud
Most recents (10)
🚨 Don't forget the Rhodes Foundation in UK,created by the Supremacist Cecil Rhodes of the Cape code Colony in 1902. It created the prestigious Rhodes' scholarships at Oxford University and Clarence Streits, the famous scholar wrote " The Union now"in 1939 (to be continued)
We told you to sell base metal miners on 15/5/22. That was a good call.
As with other l/s call such as "short gold" in Nov 2020, it received critisism.
Let us now review what happened with Dr Copper (one proxy) since.
1/n 🧵👋 #copper
As with other l/s call such as "short gold" in Nov 2020, it received critisism.
Let us now review what happened with Dr Copper (one proxy) since.
1/n 🧵👋 #copper
Starting June 2nd, Cu collapsed 29% in less than six weeks. How often did that happen?
Answer: not often! In past 25y Cu crashed only 8x >7% in a single week as in one week this June (stat below) & only 29x >5% (2x per week in June & July 2022).
Big quantamentel signals!
2/n
Answer: not often! In past 25y Cu crashed only 8x >7% in a single week as in one week this June (stat below) & only 29x >5% (2x per week in June & July 2022).
Big quantamentel signals!
2/n
How is that possible, when global reported inventories (LME; Comex; Shanghai) are below their 10-year average? Aren't commodities priced on inventories?
Chart: Global Cu inventory (reported by exchanges); Source: Bloomberg
3/n
Chart: Global Cu inventory (reported by exchanges); Source: Bloomberg
3/n
#Macroscope: Weekly Snapshot
1⃣ Tapering: Divergent views
- Bullard wants taper to start in fall/Sep21, end by Q1’22, Delta temporary
- Brainard, possible Fed Chair, wants to see Sept jobs data (out on 8 Oct) to judge progress
- Overall Dec’21 announcement remains base case
1/10
1⃣ Tapering: Divergent views
- Bullard wants taper to start in fall/Sep21, end by Q1’22, Delta temporary
- Brainard, possible Fed Chair, wants to see Sept jobs data (out on 8 Oct) to judge progress
- Overall Dec’21 announcement remains base case
1/10
2⃣ Virus
▪️ US cases further up; Delta now >80% of cases but more localized where vaccination remains low
▪️ "experts don't expect Delta to cause nationwide surge like winter wave"
▪️ To watch school re-opening
▪️ Herd immunity threshold probably pushed up, vaccination key
2/10
▪️ US cases further up; Delta now >80% of cases but more localized where vaccination remains low
▪️ "experts don't expect Delta to cause nationwide surge like winter wave"
▪️ To watch school re-opening
▪️ Herd immunity threshold probably pushed up, vaccination key
2/10
▪️ Drop in UK cases encouraging
▪️ China virus situation worst since Wuhan last yr; while absolute number still small, worth monitoring
▪️ Israel with 57% vaccination seeing rising "hospitalized cases but more serious condition significantly delayed"
3/10
scmp.com/news/china/pol…
▪️ China virus situation worst since Wuhan last yr; while absolute number still small, worth monitoring
▪️ Israel with 57% vaccination seeing rising "hospitalized cases but more serious condition significantly delayed"
3/10
scmp.com/news/china/pol…
Citibank 1/5: Week Ahead – key data/ events:
#USD: Retail Sales – Citi: 6.3%, median: 5.4%, prior: -3.0%; Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 4.9%, median: 4.8%, prior: -2.7%; Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 4.9%, median: 6.3%, prior: -3.3%; Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 4.7%
#USD: Retail Sales – Citi: 6.3%, median: 5.4%, prior: -3.0%; Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 4.9%, median: 4.8%, prior: -2.7%; Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 4.9%, median: 6.3%, prior: -3.3%; Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 4.7%
Citibank 2/5: median: 6.9%, prior: -3.5% - Citi analysts expect a strong rebound in retails in March with upside risks seen for many components in the retail control group. This could also help keep prices for various goods elevated after increases over the last year.
Citibank 3/5: #NZD: RBNZ meeting: Citi cash rate forecast; +25bp, Previous; +25bp – the MPC will likely continue to convey a dovish message given the unexpected negative Q4 2020 GDP result of -1.0% is a reminder that the path to complete recovery is not linear.
Rabobank 1/9: #CFTC Commitment of Traders Report
Speculators’ net #USD positions held in positive territory for the 4th consecutive week, though overall size dropped moderately along with the softer tone of the greenback in the spot market. Previous to this the market had not had
Speculators’ net #USD positions held in positive territory for the 4th consecutive week, though overall size dropped moderately along with the softer tone of the greenback in the spot market. Previous to this the market had not had
Rabobank 2/9: a run of net long positions since June 2020. The USD has been one of the best performing G10 currencies this year reflecting reflation optimism and a shift in expectations regarding Fed rates policy.
#EUR net longs dropped to their lowest level since March 2020.
#EUR net longs dropped to their lowest level since March 2020.
Rabobank 3/9: Concerns about the speed of the vaccine roll-out programme in #Eurozone have been constraining expectations regarding the economic recovery in the region as fears about a third wave spread. ECB has brought forward bond purchases to push down the level of bond yields
Citibank 1/11: Week Ahead – key data/ events:
#USD: CPI MoM – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 2.7%, median: 2.5%, prior: 1.7%; PI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.2%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.3%
#USD: CPI MoM – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 2.7%, median: 2.5%, prior: 1.7%; PI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.2%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.3%
Citibank 2/11: - Citi analysts expect a solid increase of 0.23%MoM in core CPI in March with upside risk for many components. The team expects March to show the start of price gains for a number of components that have been held down by soft demand.
Citibank 3/11: Retail Sales – Citi: 6.3%, median: 5.4%, prior: -3.0%; Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 4.9%, median: 4.8%, prior: -2.7%; Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 4.9%, median: 6.3%, prior: -3.3%; Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 4.7%, median: 6.9%, prior: -3.5% -
DBS Private Bank 1/12: #AUDUSD: Upside pressure persists on bullish flag pattern
Chart 1 (weekly chart) shows without a moving average convergence divergence negative decline, #AUD merely pushed lower to 0.7564 but clung tightly to a major trendline support that connects from
Chart 1 (weekly chart) shows without a moving average convergence divergence negative decline, #AUD merely pushed lower to 0.7564 but clung tightly to a major trendline support that connects from
DBS Bank 2/12: the major 0.5510 lows through last November’s 0.6991 lows. A bullish flag is being formed, which implies AUD retains its underlying bullish tone.
Chart 2 takes a look at #AUD’s supporting cast. China’s iron ore inventory (in red), together with iron ore prices
Chart 2 takes a look at #AUD’s supporting cast. China’s iron ore inventory (in red), together with iron ore prices
DBS Bank 3/12: (in green; SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China Index prices), remain in good stead with coal prices (in blue; Newcastle coal prices). #AUD is holding up well as its terms of trade remain buoyant as Australia’s trade squabble has not seen China inhibit iron ore & LNG imports
OCBC Bank 1/5: #EURUSD Downside risks averted? Choppy action left the $EURUSD still anchored on either side of the 1.2050 level. Buoyant early Tue, but the 1.2080/90 resistance still intact. Despite negative lead from
fundamentals (German lockdowns etc),
fundamentals (German lockdowns etc),
OCBC Bank 2/5: the technical picture may turn positive if the 1.2000 level is not breached again soon.
#USDJPY Upside momentum eased. $USDJPY pull-back extended towards 105.00 overnight after an initial attempt to move towards 105.80. The stalling of the 10y UST yield at 1.20%
#USDJPY Upside momentum eased. $USDJPY pull-back extended towards 105.00 overnight after an initial attempt to move towards 105.80. The stalling of the 10y UST yield at 1.20%
OCBC Bank 3/5: may have contributed to the implicit heaviness. The risk-on environment should provide some, albeit limited, supported. Will not turn negative on this pair unless 104.80/00 is breached.
#AUDUSD Bearish bias erased. Riskon and firm commodity complex spurred $AUDUSD
#AUDUSD Bearish bias erased. Riskon and firm commodity complex spurred $AUDUSD
Citibank 1/5: #AUD: Where does #RBA go in 2021 and beyond? - the RBA Governor concedes that it will take years before it achieves its inflation and employment goals. Despite the meaningful upgrade to the activity outlook, underlying inflation—at 1.25% in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022—
Citibank 2/5: is expected to remain below the Bank’s 2%-3% tget through the forecast horizon. Moreover, there’s still excess spare capacity in labor market; the unemployment rate forecast of 5.25% by the end of next year is still above Bank’s NAIRU (natural rate of unemployment)
Citibank 3/5: estimate of 4.5%. RBA’s balance sheet is set to expand further...the total size of the RBA’s balance sheet is set to increase from its current level of $AU330bn to around AU$600bn by November, or close to 30% of nominal GDP
Rabobank 1/8: #CFTC #CommitmentofTraders Report:
Net #USD short positions were little changed last week though a modest increase was recorded. Net shorts remain near recent highs and are therefore not reflecting this year’s improved performance of the USD in the spot market.
Net #USD short positions were little changed last week though a modest increase was recorded. Net shorts remain near recent highs and are therefore not reflecting this year’s improved performance of the USD in the spot market.
Rabobank 2/8: Focus is on the size of the Biden fiscal giveaway and the relative success of vaccine roll-out programmes. Rising inflation expectations appear out of kilter with the Fed’s very cautious tone.
#EUR net longs dropped back sharply. In spot market it appears that
#EUR net longs dropped back sharply. In spot market it appears that
Rabobank 3/8: the EUR is being undermined by the slow vaccine roll-out programme in the EU. This is supporting talk that the region could fall behind in the reflation trade.
Net #GBP long positions edged higher but remain below recent highs.
Net #GBP long positions edged higher but remain below recent highs.
