Thread by @Charles_Lister

NEW, via sources - After a series of meetings btw #NLF & #Turkey (MiT), a conclusion is being drawn that #Assad/#Russia may not be stopped in #Idlib.

#Turkey has upped arms supplies (mainly Grads, mortars & small-arms ammo, plus some ATGMs) & intel sharing, but outlook not good.

#Turkey's confidence in being able to contain the situation in #Idlib & deter the pro-#Assad coalition from escalating further has been declining for some time.

Meetings I had in December indicated where we were going:

#pts: But while confidence is low & the pro-#Assad offensive continues, let's keep some context in mind:

- In 9 months, #Assad has retaken *only* 1/3 of the #Idlib "DMZ" - equating to ~10-15% of the entire NW region.

There's a *long* way to go, if the whole NW is to fall.

#Turkey's recent surge of [weapons & intel] support to the opposition in NW #Syria has had an immediate - if temporary - impact.

3 villages recaptured; 4 #Russia & 28 #SAA soldiers killed; significant escalation in #ATGM, Grad rocket & artillery fire & several arms grabs/raids.

After several days of bad weather, #Syria & #Russia have ramped up air & artillery strikes in #Idlib & W. #Aleppo today.

A family of 8 (husband, wife & 6 kids) were killed in Kafr Ta'al in W. #Aleppo.

4 more civilians were killed elsewhere in W. #Aleppo & 3 in #Idlib, so far.

#pt: Between 15-20 January, monitors accounted for 3,035 air & artillery strikes by #Syria & #Russia, concentrated on S/SE #Idlib & W/SW #Aleppo.

In those 6 days, 35 civilians were killed, while ground fighting left 159 combatants dead.

This is what doesn't = news anymore.

Until now, #Iran & its proxies have played no direct, frontline role in the NW #Syria offensive.

As the W. #Aleppo front kicks off, that might be about to change. #Turkey-backed forces claim the frontline is riddled with #Iran-backed militias, with strategic interests at play.

Since #Turkey's meeting a week ago with the #NLF (in which MIT underlined little leverage to stop #Assad/#Russia offensive in #Idlib), #Ankara's proxies have dramatically increased use of newly supplied arms, especially:

- Anti-tank missiles
- 122mm Grad rockets

#pt: In response to #Turkey's tactical enhancement of #NLF's (& thus, #HTS's) capabilities in recent days, #Russia appears to have escalated its air activity - including a spate of strikes that have clearly targeted civilian-only targets.

Today, 38 civilians dead, so far.

#Syria & #Russia aircraft launched a huge blitz on key populated areas of western #Aleppo this morning, as a ground offensive looks increasingly imminent.

Opposition & jihadists are deeply dug-in. They've had 2+ yrs to build defenses, including tunnel networks, trenches etc.

Yet more evidence today of increased #Turkey (via MIT) arms support to the #NLF in #Idlib & SW #Aleppo - multiple documented use of Grad MRLs (some filmed here) & multiple ATGM strikes (both Soviet-era & U.S.-made TOWs).

Fascinating reporting from @Josiensor, on audio intercepts revealing the presence of #IRGC and/or Fatemiyoun militiamen in al-Tamaneh, south of Marat al-Numan, #Idlib.

youtube.com/watch?time_con…

telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/2…

@Josiensor #pt: FWIW, there has been no evidence until now of #Iran-linked fighters being *killed* in combat on #Idlib frontlines, which would suggest that any presence is likely limited to an advisory (command/control, training) & support (logistics, artillery etc.) capacity.

@Josiensor #pt: After days of activity in W/SW #Aleppo on the other hand, we've seen clear evidence of #Iran-linked fighters engaged in combat, like this headband inscribed with a Shia slogan relating to Ali & Zulfiqar, captured today.

After 9 months, none of this has turned up in #Idlib.

@Josiensor Meanwhile on the S/SW #Aleppo front, as pro-#Assad (including #Iran-backed) forces press forward, #HTS conducted a suicide vehicle bombing in al-Zahra.

I'm told the attack occurred shortly after an ATGM took out the position's only tank.

@Josiensor On #Idlib's Marat al-Numan frontline, pro-#Assad forces continue to advance, beginning to encircle the town & placing #Turkey's Marat Hatat observation post in jeopardy.

1,000s of civilians are fleeing en masse today from a town that consistently resisted extremist influence.

@Josiensor Pro-#Assad forces are going all-out today - bombing towns like Marat al-Numan, Khan al-Subl & Saraqeb that lie on the M5, S/SE of #Idlib city.

Clear use of thermobaric & cluster munitions. People are fleeing in their 1,000s - a mass exodus.

@Josiensor Amid intensified bombing & shelling, entire towns are depopulating en masse.

#Idlib was *already* the biggest humanitarian crisis in #Syria's 9yrs of conflict -- it's now spiraling out of control.

People have nowhere to go; they just move once more.

@Josiensor #pt: What's happening in NW #Syria isn't irrelevant to #Europe or #America. It's not "someone else's problem."

If this goes unhindered for much longer, we'll be feeling the effects for a long, long time.

But at least @SecPompeo has done his box-ticking.

@Josiensor @SecPompeo BREAKING - reports now that pro-#Assad forces have entered Marat al-Numan & may be close to assuming control there.

A sad symbolic moment for #Syria -- the town withstood extremists for years, only to be smashed into rubble in a "counter-terror" assault.

@Josiensor @SecPompeo UN:

- 358,000 displaced in #Idlib in 8 weeks.
- 400,000 more were displaced in earlier 2019 phase of fighting.
- 500,000 more likely to be displaced if fighting continues.

- "4 million civilians" live in NW #Syria zone

- 1,506 civilians killed (5% in #Assad-held areas).

@Josiensor @SecPompeo BREAKING - Marat al-Numan has fallen.

Pro-#Assad forces are now sweeping the town, after a mass withdrawal of fighters was conducted 1-2hrs ago. Civilians had fled weeks ago.

It's a destroyed ghost town. #Idlib

@Josiensor @SecPompeo The images coming from southern #Idlib are almost apocalyptic - roads jammed with car & trucks loaded to the hilt with people & their belongings, fleeing the pro-#Assad brutal assault.

The world is entirely indifferent.

Meanwhile in S/SW #Aleppo, 3 #Hezbollah fighters were reported killed yesterday, marking the resumption of #Hezbollah's anti-opposition campaign - which has been largely on pause for 18 months.

BREAKING - A precision #Russia airstrike just destroyed #Ariha's central hospital.

Absolutely unbelievable -- #Moscow must be held to account.

The pro-#Assad onslaught on S. #Idlib continues, as #Ariha, #Saraqeb & other areas are pummeled by airstrikes & artillery shelling.

Look at this video from #Saraqeb. It's literally been smashed into rubble.

This is what #Assad's "victory" looks like:

For another day, civilians are fleeing north in their 1,000s.

Urgent calls are going out for cars, vans & trucks to drive south to evacuate people - a "Dunkirk-style" effort.

Except they're fleeing towards a closed [#Turkey] border, where #IDP camps reached capacity months ago.

#pt: After days of negotiations, #Turkey has given permission for ~1,200 #SNA fighters to leave northern #Aleppo & reinforce frontlines in W. #Aleppo, currently under pro-#Assad assault.

Here's @DrZaineddin rallying the 1st batch, before their deployment earlier today:

@DrZaineddin #pt: My sources tell me the #SNA fighter transfer to W. #Aleppo wasn't just an issue being blocked by #Turkey - #HTS was also resisting, given their historical hostility w. the fighters in question (mostly #Zinki).

As such, they carry no heavy weapons:

@DrZaineddin #pt: Dispatching lightly-armed "infantry" originally from W. #Aleppo back to their home-front presumably indicates an intent to swell urban resistance, using fighters with deep local knowledge of the terrain.

But they're heading into a massive, unending wave of bombardment...

@DrZaineddin The @UN is a disgrace.

It's already stymied (by #Russia) inquiry into the targeted bombing of #Idlib hospitals is now months behind schedule - AS #Assad escalates his bombing campaign & #Moscow continues to single out hospitals for precision destruction.

@DrZaineddin @UN In 9 months, pro-#Assad forces have recaptured ~20% of NW #Syria - 80% more remains under opposition/#HTS control (NE #Latakia, #Idlib & W/SW #Aleppo).

Meanwhile, #Iran is signaling that "post-#Idlib," US troops east of #Euphrates will be the target:

disq.us/t/3lr80tt

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt: As pro-#Assad forces sustain recent advances (Khan Touman taken today), #Turkey's rhetoric has escalated with threats of "military action" & new armored deployments on the #Idlib border.

#TSK has also created 2 new makeshift observation posts N & S of #Saraqeb, on the M5.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt I didn't think it would be possible to address humanitarian suffering in #Idlib without mentioning the fact that it's cause is #Assad, #Russia & #Iran -- but it turns out the @ICRC can do a truly excellent job.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC SO much happening in NW #Syria - dynamics are spiraling in a way we haven't seen since hostilities began 10 months ago.

#Iran is - as expected - fully involved in/leading the W/SW #Aleppo front.

- Al-Haj Ali Ashgar, the #IRGC's lead officer in NW LDF, was killed this weekend.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC After shifting in rhetoric last week, #Turkey began a notable military counter-escalation in #Idlib & #Aleppo:

- 150+ armored vehicles deployed into E. #Idlib.
- 4 new observation posts emerging along the M5.
- Big shipment of ATGMs to #NLF
- 100s #SNA transferred to frontlines

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC #pt: In response, #Assad escalated further, shelling #Turkey troops & convoys, killing 6 #TSK soldiers.

#Turkey fired back with 122 artillery shells targeting 46 #SAA positions - reportedly killing 8-30 #SAA soldiers.

#TSK also ceased all patrols with #Russia in NE #Syria.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC #pts: #Turkey sent in helicopters yesterday to #Saraqeb to evacuate casualties, but locals say jets & helicopters have buzzed border areas repeatedly since.

BUT, #Assad (& #Russia) have continued brutal bombing - today an IDP mini-bus was struck killing 4 kids, 3 women & 2 men.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC Meanwhile, #Turkey also counter-escalated in *east* #Aleppo, dispatching #SNA forces to assault #SAA south of al-Bab, where they captured an #SAA-#RU position.

In the chaos, locals allege that #Russia launched - for 1st time - several airstrikes targeting #SNA east of #Aleppo.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC On the W/SW #Aleppo front, a combination of #SNA, #NLF, #HTS & AQ-linked jihadists have sustained an intense frontline with #SAA & #Iran-backed militias.

4 #Russia SOF troops (#FSB-linked) were killed there yesterday; their deaths noted now in #Russia, as per @CITeam_ru.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru #pt: #HTS special forces "red bands," embedded with Tavhid va Jihod, captured a 'top-of-the-range' T-90 tank (& a BMP-1) from #SAA during intense fighting yesterday in west #Aleppo - amid a brief capture of al-Zahraa.

That's the 4th T-90 captured in the #Syria war.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru #pt: Having remained un-involved in the #Idlib offensive until now, #Iran appears to be taking a lead in the W/SW #Aleppo front.

Qassem #Soleimani's death has added some symbolism - here, Harakat al-Nujaba adorn shells ready-for-launch with his name:

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru #pts: This morning, pro-#Assad forces have reached the village of al-Tarnab, just 2.5km west of #Saraqeb.

Al-Tarnab hosts the #Turkey observation post that was hit yesterday, killing 6 #TSK soldiers.

This'll be a huge test of how far #Ankara is willing to go to assert itself.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru Amid the most intense & geopolitically complex phase of NW #Syria hostilities, a U.S. MQ-9 Raptor UAV was spotted flying over #Idlib yesterday - presumably working a lead on a high-level #AlQaeda target.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru My short post for @MiddleEastInst, looking at spiraling escalation in NW #Syria since the weekend.

800,000 civilians displaced in 10 months & 500,000+ more likely in the coming months.

#Turkey & #Assad in fatal clashes; #Russia & #Iran losing personnel.

mei.edu/blog/escalatio…

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru @MiddleEastInst In the last 36hrs, the number of #Syrians displaced in #Idlib since Dec 1, 2019 reached 586,000 (per @OCHA_Syria).

That means over 1 million have been displaced in #Idlib since April 2019 -- the biggest humanitarian crisis in #Syria's 9yrs of war.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru @MiddleEastInst @OCHA_Syria Earlier today, pro-#Assad troops exchanged fire again with #Turkey's military in #Saraqeb, #Idlib.

#Ankara has clearly upped the ante lately, but the #SAA appears undeterred. The only chance of things de-escalating is if #Putin 'presses pause,' after speaking w. #Erdogan today.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru @MiddleEastInst @OCHA_Syria #pt: Given all stakes involved & broader geopolitical dynamics at play, I still think #Idlib is destined for a 'Gazafication' scenario -- whereby #Assad's frontline reaches (& likely crosses) the M5 but falls short of #Idlib city.

The territory to the north = 'Gazified' #Idlib.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru @MiddleEastInst @OCHA_Syria #pts: #Turkey's #TSK deployments to #Idlib & transfer of 100s of #SNA from north #Aleppo to #Idlib/W. #Aleppo appears to represent a message of deterrence & strategy of stalling pro-#Assad gains - both to provide #Ankara time & leverage to negotiate.

Sultan Murad arrived today:

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru @MiddleEastInst @OCHA_Syria #pt: Intriguingly, improvised drone attacks have resumed, but not targeting #Hmeymim (i.e. #Russia) -- an overnight drone wave hit 3 oil/gas facilities in #Homs (i.e. #Assad):

- Al-Rayyan gas station
- Ebla gas plant
- Homs refinery

Did #Ankara greenlight/back it? Maybe.

@DrZaineddin @UN @pt @ICRC @CITeam_ru @MiddleEastInst @OCHA_Syria #pt: In previous phases of hostility, #Assad & #Russia made gradual progress on south #Idlib.

The opening of W. #Aleppo front (led by #Iran) raised the prospects of sizable gains on 2 fronts, but pro-#Assad forces have lost 73+ fighters in 3-4 days:

BREAKING: pro-#Assad forces have entered the northern sector of #Saraqeb & reports say opposition/#HTS fighters have evacuated.

#Turkey's observation post remains in place, but if #TSK poses no resistance, #Erdogan's words of warning (& thus, his credibility) will crumble.

#pt: As has been the case with previous #Assad "victories" in NW #Syria (& elsewhere before), #Saraqeb has been transformed into a pile of rubble by #Syria & #Russia bombardment.

This was filmed a week ago:

#pt: #Erdogan said today that he'd given #Assad & #Russia until the end of February to withdraw from "behind our stations" (observation posts).

He threatened to resume anti-#SDF operations in NE #Syria if #Turkey's demands went un-met:

middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-gi…

6,500 kids have been displaced in #Idlib *every day* since Dec 1, 2019.

#Russia launched ~700 airstrikes in January 2020, amid multiple strikes on hospitals.

@myacoubian provides an excellent overview of the dire humanitarian situation in NW #Syria:

usip.org/publications/2…

@myacoubian BREAKING - Multiple reports that #Turkey troops are shelling pro-#Assad forces who are attempting to enter #Saraqeb tonight.

@myacoubian UPDATE: #Turkey military is continuing shelling of pro-#Assad forces on the outskirts of #Saraqeb *and* now also shelling pro-#Assad forces around Tel Rifaat in northern #Aleppo.

T-155 Firtina's in use. (stock image)

@myacoubian #Saraqeb update:

- The town is not fully under siege, 1 road remains open & some opposition & #HTS forces remain in the town, engaged in clashes

- A major #NLF-#HTS counter-offensive to NW & SW has been launched on Karatin (captured), Neirab & Dadikh (under assault) & Afis.

@myacoubian #pt: Overnight, #Turkey deployed (for the 1st time?) main battle tanks (M60s) into #Idlib in order to establish new observation posts north of #Idlib city.

One new post, in #Taftanaz Airbase, was swiftly shelled by #Syria Army.

Some reports suggest there's more armor to come.

@myacoubian On the W. #Aleppo front, newly opened by #Syria, #Russia *and* #Iran, the pro-regime axis is taking heavy losses.

At @GregoryPWaters' count, at least 102 have died in 4 days - a heavy toll on a front the regime expected to be easier than #Idlib.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters BREAKING - multiple reports appear to confirm that #Saraqeb has fallen to pro-#Assad forces.

Locals say opposition/#HTS *and* #Turkey forces evacuated just before the siege was closed.

If accurate, that'd be the 1st time #TSK fled an observation post.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters BREAKING - #Turkey has just deployed a convoy of 200 military vehicles into #Idlib, including battle tanks, APCs, T-122 MRLs, howitzers etc.

Lots of rumors flying that #TSK plans to enforce a new buffer, ceding the M5 all the way north to #Aleppo.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters BREAKING - 6 #Turkey soldiers killed this morning in #Assad regime shelling on a #TSK post in #Taftanaz Airbase, #Idlib.

The shelling came amid a brief & unprecedented *joint* #Turkey-opposition counter-offensive - intended as a warning pre-#Turkey-Russia talks in #Ankara today.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters #pt: In the last few days, #Turkey has deployed 1,000+ tanks, armored vehicles, multiple-rocket launcher systems & 100s of paratroopers into #Idlib.

The #NLF & #SNA have been supplied with armored personnel carriers, 122mm Grad rockets, anti-tank missiles & artillery pieces.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters #pt: The situation in NW #Syria has taken on much more dangerous dynamic today, with a 2nd deadly #Assad-on-#Turkey incident.

#TSK now has more troops in #Syria than #America - & *far* more equipment & heavy weaponry. But will it risk its #Russia ties?

Escalate or surrender...

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters For the 1st time, #Turkey's supplied APCs (shows here) to #NLF units rooted in #Idlib.

Yes the #NLF "is #SNA," but that's never translated into #Idlib - Idlibi #NLF remain distinct.

The last 36hrs have seen a shift, which cannot be so easily reversed.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters #pt: #Turkey has a sizable disadvantage in what's turning out to be a deadly, kinetic negotiation over the ultimate fate of NW #Syria, BUT:

- #Russia has 'pressed pause' before.
- #Assad has lost ~210 soldiers in a week (= unsustainable)
- For #Erdogan, #Idlib is existential.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters #pt: But as #Turkey-#Russia talks appear to've stalled or broken down, it's hard not to imagine some form of #Turkey pushback.

The IDP flow to the border, #TSK's public deployments & strategic shift, not to mention the loss of 12+ troops in 2 weeks, is too much to go unanswered.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters #Turkey's MoD claims it targeted 115 #SAA positions in northern #Syria today, in retaliation for the killing of 6 #TSK troops in #Taftanaz, #Idlib.

I've not seen any evidence to substantiate that - at all.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters BREAKING - Another #Turkey convoy has just been shelled by pro-#Assad forces, this time near Atareb.

Some reports claim it was a #Russia airstrike.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters The situation in #Idlib continues to escalate today:

- #SAA helicopter downed (maybe w. MANPADS)
- #SAA shelling targets #TSK
- #TSK gives artillery support to #NLF-#SNA-#HTS ops
- #Russia jets intensify strikes on urban populated centers
- 12+ killed in airstrike in #Idlib city

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters #pt: Now that the #Assad regime is effectively sealing control of the M5 highway, the prospect of intensified airstrikes on #Idlib city (home to 450,000+) raise the prospect of yet another massive wave of displacement.

Already, nearly 700,000 have been displaced since Dec 1.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters NEW - @SecPompeo says the U.S. will "coordinate" with #Turkey a response to #Syria's attacks on its troops in #Idlib.

Unclear what that would amount to, for now.

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters @SecPompeo Good map from #Turkey's @trthaber, illustrating #TSK's 18 observation posts in NW #Syria.

9 now appear to be 'besieged' within #Assad-controlled territory (red).

9 more remain within the opposition/#HTS zone (green).

[via @RenaNetjes]

@myacoubian @GregoryPWaters @SecPompeo @trthaber @RenaNetjes NEW - #Assad regime-backed "Syrian Electronic Army" has published a video showing the burning wreckage of a #Turkey convoy in #Idlib after strikes by #Syria's Air Force on Feb 3, 2020.

It's addressed to "#Trump & its puppet #Erdogan & #NATO."

#Turkey's #Erdogan produced a blistering speech today aimed [primarily] at #Assad, declaring that #Syria's aircraft would not be able to "move freely anymore" & that #TSK would "chase" Syrian forces out of the #Sochi-delineated borders.

A good overview:

middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-hi…

#pt: Despite #Erdogan's threats & #Turkey's escalatory moves, neither #Assad nor #Russia appear to be stepping down.

Ground maneuvers remain at high tempo but interestingly, @Sentry_Syria says *only* #Russia aircraft have been flying today (amid reports of #TSK MANPADS in play].

@Sentry_Syria #pt: However, pro-#Assad casualties have been very high, as noted by monitors like @SchoenbornTrent & @GregoryPWaters.

563 dead in 6 weeks is significant - #Russia does take note of these details...

@Sentry_Syria @SchoenbornTrent @GregoryPWaters Excellent reporting on the dire situation in #Idlib here, by @sommervilletv.

I do wish TV media in the U.S. would pay some attention too - #Syria may be far away, but its effects have been & will continue to be felt worldwide.

@Sentry_Syria @SchoenbornTrent @GregoryPWaters @sommervilletv NEW - #Turkey's military just shelled pro-#Assad positions in Kafr Halab in W. #Aleppo, using a newly deployed T-122 Sakarya MRL:

@Sentry_Syria @SchoenbornTrent @GregoryPWaters @sommervilletv More video footage from just now shows #Turkey is also using T-155 Fırtına's to shell pro-#Assad positions in Kafr Halab.

An #NLF-#SNA-#HTS ground offensive has just been launched too - seemingly in coordination with #TSK shelling:

@Sentry_Syria @SchoenbornTrent @GregoryPWaters @sommervilletv On the ground, this video shows the #NLF/#SNA are equipped with #TSK-provided armored vehicles - in this case, M113 APCs & Kirpi MRAPs (both seen towards the end of the footage):

@Sentry_Syria @SchoenbornTrent @GregoryPWaters @sommervilletv New footage confirms that a #MANPADS was used to shoot down a #Syria helicopter on Tuesday, over #Idlib:

Recent hostilities in #Idlib has seen #Syria enter into "a whole new level of state-on-state conflict" & the humanitarian crisis is "totally unprecedented and will definitely only get worse."

My comments to @CNN:

cnn.com/2020/02/12/mid…

@CNN From bad to worse.

- UN @OCHA_Syria says 832,000 people have been displaced in #Idlib since Dec 1.

Hostilities haven't even reached #Idlib city yet - this crisis is hard to fathom & only set to worsen. There are 500,000 alone in #Idlib city...