NEW, via sources - After a series of meetings btw #NLF & #Turkey (MiT), a conclusion is being drawn that #Assad/#Russia may not be stopped in #Idlib.
#Turkey has upped arms supplies (mainly Grads, mortars & small-arms ammo, plus some ATGMs) & intel sharing, but outlook not good.
#Turkey's confidence in being able to contain the situation in #Idlib & deter the pro-#Assad coalition from escalating further has been declining for some time.
Meetings I had in December indicated where we were going:
#pts: But while confidence is low & the pro-#Assad offensive continues, let's keep some context in mind:
- In 9 months, #Assad has retaken *only* 1/3 of the #Idlib "DMZ" - equating to ~10-15% of the entire NW region.
There's a *long* way to go, if the whole NW is to fall.
#Turkey's recent surge of [weapons & intel] support to the opposition in NW #Syria has had an immediate - if temporary - impact.
3 villages recaptured; 4 #Russia & 28 #SAA soldiers killed; significant escalation in #ATGM, Grad rocket & artillery fire & several arms grabs/raids.
After several days of bad weather, #Syria & #Russia have ramped up air & artillery strikes in #Idlib & W. #Aleppo today.
A family of 8 (husband, wife & 6 kids) were killed in Kafr Ta'al in W. #Aleppo.
4 more civilians were killed elsewhere in W. #Aleppo & 3 in #Idlib, so far.
#pt: Between 15-20 January, monitors accounted for 3,035 air & artillery strikes by #Syria & #Russia, concentrated on S/SE #Idlib & W/SW #Aleppo.
In those 6 days, 35 civilians were killed, while ground fighting left 159 combatants dead.
This is what doesn't = news anymore.
Until now, #Iran & its proxies have played no direct, frontline role in the NW #Syria offensive.
As the W. #Aleppo front kicks off, that might be about to change. #Turkey-backed forces claim the frontline is riddled with #Iran-backed militias, with strategic interests at play.
Since #Turkey's meeting a week ago with the #NLF (in which MIT underlined little leverage to stop #Assad/#Russia offensive in #Idlib), #Ankara's proxies have dramatically increased use of newly supplied arms, especially:
- Anti-tank missiles
- 122mm Grad rockets
#pt: In response to #Turkey's tactical enhancement of #NLF's (& thus, #HTS's) capabilities in recent days, #Russia appears to have escalated its air activity - including a spate of strikes that have clearly targeted civilian-only targets.
Today, 38 civilians dead, so far.
#Syria & #Russia aircraft launched a huge blitz on key populated areas of western #Aleppo this morning, as a ground offensive looks increasingly imminent.
Opposition & jihadists are deeply dug-in. They've had 2+ yrs to build defenses, including tunnel networks, trenches etc.
Yet more evidence today of increased #Turkey (via MIT) arms support to the #NLF in #Idlib & SW #Aleppo - multiple documented use of Grad MRLs (some filmed here) & multiple ATGM strikes (both Soviet-era & U.S.-made TOWs).
Fascinating reporting from @Josiensor, on audio intercepts revealing the presence of #IRGC and/or Fatemiyoun militiamen in al-Tamaneh, south of Marat al-Numan, #Idlib.
@Josiensor#pt: FWIW, there has been no evidence until now of #Iran-linked fighters being *killed* in combat on #Idlib frontlines, which would suggest that any presence is likely limited to an advisory (command/control, training) & support (logistics, artillery etc.) capacity.
@Josiensor#pt: After days of activity in W/SW #Aleppo on the other hand, we've seen clear evidence of #Iran-linked fighters engaged in combat, like this headband inscribed with a Shia slogan relating to Ali & Zulfiqar, captured today.
After 9 months, none of this has turned up in #Idlib.
@Josiensor Meanwhile on the S/SW #Aleppo front, as pro-#Assad (including #Iran-backed) forces press forward, #HTS conducted a suicide vehicle bombing in al-Zahra.
I'm told the attack occurred shortly after an ATGM took out the position's only tank.
@Josiensor On #Idlib's Marat al-Numan frontline, pro-#Assad forces continue to advance, beginning to encircle the town & placing #Turkey's Marat Hatat observation post in jeopardy.
1,000s of civilians are fleeing en masse today from a town that consistently resisted extremist influence.
@Josiensor Pro-#Assad forces are going all-out today - bombing towns like Marat al-Numan, Khan al-Subl & Saraqeb that lie on the M5, S/SE of #Idlib city.
Clear use of thermobaric & cluster munitions. People are fleeing in their 1,000s - a mass exodus.
@Josiensor Amid intensified bombing & shelling, entire towns are depopulating en masse.
#Idlib was *already* the biggest humanitarian crisis in #Syria's 9yrs of conflict -- it's now spiraling out of control.
People have nowhere to go; they just move once more.
- 358,000 displaced in #Idlib in 8 weeks.
- 400,000 more were displaced in earlier 2019 phase of fighting.
- 500,000 more likely to be displaced if fighting continues.
@Josiensor@SecPompeo The images coming from southern #Idlib are almost apocalyptic - roads jammed with car & trucks loaded to the hilt with people & their belongings, fleeing the pro-#Assad brutal assault.
Meanwhile in S/SW #Aleppo, 3 #Hezbollah fighters were reported killed yesterday, marking the resumption of #Hezbollah's anti-opposition campaign - which has been largely on pause for 18 months.
For another day, civilians are fleeing north in their 1,000s.
Urgent calls are going out for cars, vans & trucks to drive south to evacuate people - a "Dunkirk-style" effort.
Except they're fleeing towards a closed [#Turkey] border, where #IDP camps reached capacity months ago.
#pt: After days of negotiations, #Turkey has given permission for ~1,200 #SNA fighters to leave northern #Aleppo & reinforce frontlines in W. #Aleppo, currently under pro-#Assad assault.
Here's @DrZaineddin rallying the 1st batch, before their deployment earlier today:
@DrZaineddin#pt: My sources tell me the #SNA fighter transfer to W. #Aleppo wasn't just an issue being blocked by #Turkey - #HTS was also resisting, given their historical hostility w. the fighters in question (mostly #Zinki).
As such, they carry no heavy weapons:
@DrZaineddin#pt: Dispatching lightly-armed "infantry" originally from W. #Aleppo back to their home-front presumably indicates an intent to swell urban resistance, using fighters with deep local knowledge of the terrain.
But they're heading into a massive, unending wave of bombardment...
It's already stymied (by #Russia) inquiry into the targeted bombing of #Idlib hospitals is now months behind schedule - AS #Assad escalates his bombing campaign & #Moscow continues to single out hospitals for precision destruction.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt: As pro-#Assad forces sustain recent advances (Khan Touman taken today), #Turkey's rhetoric has escalated with threats of "military action" & new armored deployments on the #Idlib border.
#TSK has also created 2 new makeshift observation posts N & S of #Saraqeb, on the M5.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt I didn't think it would be possible to address humanitarian suffering in #Idlib without mentioning the fact that it's cause is #Assad, #Russia & #Iran -- but it turns out the @ICRC can do a truly excellent job.
- 150+ armored vehicles deployed into E. #Idlib.
- 4 new observation posts emerging along the M5.
- Big shipment of ATGMs to #NLF
- 100s #SNA transferred to frontlines
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt@ICRC#pts: #Turkey sent in helicopters yesterday to #Saraqeb to evacuate casualties, but locals say jets & helicopters have buzzed border areas repeatedly since.
BUT, #Assad (& #Russia) have continued brutal bombing - today an IDP mini-bus was struck killing 4 kids, 3 women & 2 men.
4 #Russia SOF troops (#FSB-linked) were killed there yesterday; their deaths noted now in #Russia, as per @CITeam_ru.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt@ICRC@CITeam_ru#pt: #HTS special forces "red bands," embedded with Tavhid va Jihod, captured a 'top-of-the-range' T-90 tank (& a BMP-1) from #SAA during intense fighting yesterday in west #Aleppo - amid a brief capture of al-Zahraa.
Al-Tarnab hosts the #Turkey observation post that was hit yesterday, killing 6 #TSK soldiers.
This'll be a huge test of how far #Ankara is willing to go to assert itself.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt@ICRC@CITeam_ru Amid the most intense & geopolitically complex phase of NW #Syria hostilities, a U.S. MQ-9 Raptor UAV was spotted flying over #Idlib yesterday - presumably working a lead on a high-level #AlQaeda target.
#Ankara has clearly upped the ante lately, but the #SAA appears undeterred. The only chance of things de-escalating is if #Putin 'presses pause,' after speaking w. #Erdogan today.
The opening of W. #Aleppo front (led by #Iran) raised the prospects of sizable gains on 2 fronts, but pro-#Assad forces have lost 73+ fighters in 3-4 days:
BREAKING: pro-#Assad forces have entered the northern sector of #Saraqeb & reports say opposition/#HTS fighters have evacuated.
#Turkey's observation post remains in place, but if #TSK poses no resistance, #Erdogan's words of warning (& thus, his credibility) will crumble.
#pt: As has been the case with previous #Assad "victories" in NW #Syria (& elsewhere before), #Saraqeb has been transformed into a pile of rubble by #Syria & #Russia bombardment.
@myacoubian BREAKING - Multiple reports that #Turkey troops are shelling pro-#Assad forces who are attempting to enter #Saraqeb tonight.
@myacoubian UPDATE: #Turkey military is continuing shelling of pro-#Assad forces on the outskirts of #Saraqeb *and* now also shelling pro-#Assad forces around Tel Rifaat in northern #Aleppo.
- The town is not fully under siege, 1 road remains open & some opposition & #HTS forces remain in the town, engaged in clashes
- A major #NLF-#HTS counter-offensive to NW & SW has been launched on Karatin (captured), Neirab & Dadikh (under assault) & Afis.
@myacoubian#pt: Overnight, #Turkey deployed (for the 1st time?) main battle tanks (M60s) into #Idlib in order to establish new observation posts north of #Idlib city.
One new post, in #Taftanaz Airbase, was swiftly shelled by #Syria Army.
Locals say opposition/#HTS *and* #Turkey forces evacuated just before the siege was closed.
If accurate, that'd be the 1st time #TSK fled an observation post.
@myacoubian@GregoryPWaters BREAKING - #Turkey has just deployed a convoy of 200 military vehicles into #Idlib, including battle tanks, APCs, T-122 MRLs, howitzers etc.
Lots of rumors flying that #TSK plans to enforce a new buffer, ceding the M5 all the way north to #Aleppo.
The shelling came amid a brief & unprecedented *joint* #Turkey-opposition counter-offensive - intended as a warning pre-#Turkey-Russia talks in #Ankara today.
@myacoubian@GregoryPWaters#pt: In the last few days, #Turkey has deployed 1,000+ tanks, armored vehicles, multiple-rocket launcher systems & 100s of paratroopers into #Idlib.
The #NLF & #SNA have been supplied with armored personnel carriers, 122mm Grad rockets, anti-tank missiles & artillery pieces.
The IDP flow to the border, #TSK's public deployments & strategic shift, not to mention the loss of 12+ troops in 2 weeks, is too much to go unanswered.
- #SAA helicopter downed (maybe w. MANPADS)
- #SAA shelling targets #TSK
- #TSK gives artillery support to #NLF-#SNA-#HTS ops
- #Russia jets intensify strikes on urban populated centers
- 12+ killed in airstrike in #Idlib city
@myacoubian@GregoryPWaters#pt: Now that the #Assad regime is effectively sealing control of the M5 highway, the prospect of intensified airstrikes on #Idlib city (home to 450,000+) raise the prospect of yet another massive wave of displacement.
Already, nearly 700,000 have been displaced since Dec 1.
#Turkey's #Erdogan produced a blistering speech today aimed [primarily] at #Assad, declaring that #Syria's aircraft would not be able to "move freely anymore" & that #TSK would "chase" Syrian forces out of the #Sochi-delineated borders.
Ground maneuvers remain at high tempo but interestingly, @Sentry_Syria says *only* #Russia aircraft have been flying today (amid reports of #TSK MANPADS in play].
Recent hostilities in #Idlib has seen #Syria enter into "a whole new level of state-on-state conflict" & the humanitarian crisis is "totally unprecedented and will definitely only get worse."
#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.
3 #IRGC-QF Generals:
- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)
Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.
It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.
For months, Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & suicide drones have targeted Israeli & U.S. targets in #Iraq, #Syria, the Gulf & #Israel itself -- but all launched from outside #Iran's territory.
There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.
From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever.
Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.
Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.
In 2023, multiple #ISIS-related attack plots were foiled in northern #Europe -- most unreported, almost all linked to #ISKP.
BUT, those #ISKP plots were 1st detected *outside* #Afghanistan, underlining the group's transnational reach -- as I wrote here:
Since 2012, #Iran has been building & consolidating a formidable network of proxies across #Syria & #Iraq -- dozens of groups & 150,000+ members, all financed, trained & armed by the #IRGC.
In #Syria, they engaged in ethnic cleansing & war crimes -- completely unchallenged.
During the formative years of 2012-16, #Obama's admin consciously ignored the #IRGC's militia surge in #Syria -- dismissing it as unimportant to U.S. interests.
In 2015, orders were even granted for U.S. forces to deconflict & coordinate with #Iran's proxies in #Iraq, vs. #ISIS.
For a time ('15-17), U.S. forces fighting #ISIS in #Iraq were effectively told to coordinate with the very same groups who'd killed 100s of U.S. troops from '03-'10 & who are again back to targeting us today.
What a staggering indictment of U.S. inconsistency & ill-judgment.
The same has been true in #Syria, #Yemen & many other acute conflict zones.
The @StateDept has told Congress the #Gaza HM data is an undercount. Why? Because in every previous conflict its data has been +/- 1-3% off post-conflict analysis by #Israel, the U.S., the EU & the UN.
@StateDept Are #Hamas combatant casualties being accurately acknowledged? Clearly not — but that doesn’t affect civilian casualty rates.
With ~20,000 strikes in 6 weeks, much in dense urban environments, it’s hardly surprising that ~15,000 civilians would be dead.
#Putin [rightly] gets slammed for firing cruise missiles into residential buildings in #Ukraine, but when #Israel vaporizes an entire residential block, it's ok & "like the tunnels of Chu Chi."
I'm sorry, but if our principles can't be universal, they count for nothing.
#Hamas' evil massacre in #Israel revealed its true colors -- and the group deserves & requires rooting out.
But a scorched earth campaign in which civilians are paying the overwhelming price is a recipe for disaster. We're watching Hamas 2.0's seeds being sown, bomb by bomb.
We can't viscerally oppose #Assad's sieges in #Syria but accept them in #Gaza & we can't condemn the targeting of residential tower blocks in #Ukraine but turn a blind eye when they're turned to rubble in #Gaza.
Countering extremism requires consistency in values, not hypocrisy.
As fighting escalates further in Deir ez Zour, reports suggest the #SDF has lost 18+ villages & towns to tribal forces.
Since the Akeidat calls earlier today, there are also reports of amassed Arab #SDF defections to the tribes, handing over checkpoints.
Serious, serious news.
Meanwhile, the #SDF continues to dispatch fighters from #Raqqa & #Hasakeh, along with heavy equipment (including U.S.-made Humvees & Bearcats) to confront the tribal uprising in Deir ez Zour.
The tribes control roadways down south though - multiple IED/RPG ambushes yesterday.