NEW, via sources - After a series of meetings btw #NLF & #Turkey (MiT), a conclusion is being drawn that #Assad/#Russia may not be stopped in #Idlib.
#Turkey has upped arms supplies (mainly Grads, mortars & small-arms ammo, plus some ATGMs) & intel sharing, but outlook not good.
#Turkey's confidence in being able to contain the situation in #Idlib & deter the pro-#Assad coalition from escalating further has been declining for some time.
Meetings I had in December indicated where we were going:
#pts: But while confidence is low & the pro-#Assad offensive continues, let's keep some context in mind:
- In 9 months, #Assad has retaken *only* 1/3 of the #Idlib "DMZ" - equating to ~10-15% of the entire NW region.
There's a *long* way to go, if the whole NW is to fall.
#Turkey's recent surge of [weapons & intel] support to the opposition in NW #Syria has had an immediate - if temporary - impact.
3 villages recaptured; 4 #Russia & 28 #SAA soldiers killed; significant escalation in #ATGM, Grad rocket & artillery fire & several arms grabs/raids.
After several days of bad weather, #Syria & #Russia have ramped up air & artillery strikes in #Idlib & W. #Aleppo today.
A family of 8 (husband, wife & 6 kids) were killed in Kafr Ta'al in W. #Aleppo.
4 more civilians were killed elsewhere in W. #Aleppo & 3 in #Idlib, so far.
#pt: Between 15-20 January, monitors accounted for 3,035 air & artillery strikes by #Syria & #Russia, concentrated on S/SE #Idlib & W/SW #Aleppo.
In those 6 days, 35 civilians were killed, while ground fighting left 159 combatants dead.
This is what doesn't = news anymore.
Until now, #Iran & its proxies have played no direct, frontline role in the NW #Syria offensive.
As the W. #Aleppo front kicks off, that might be about to change. #Turkey-backed forces claim the frontline is riddled with #Iran-backed militias, with strategic interests at play.
Since #Turkey's meeting a week ago with the #NLF (in which MIT underlined little leverage to stop #Assad/#Russia offensive in #Idlib), #Ankara's proxies have dramatically increased use of newly supplied arms, especially:
- Anti-tank missiles
- 122mm Grad rockets
#pt: In response to #Turkey's tactical enhancement of #NLF's (& thus, #HTS's) capabilities in recent days, #Russia appears to have escalated its air activity - including a spate of strikes that have clearly targeted civilian-only targets.
Today, 38 civilians dead, so far.
#Syria & #Russia aircraft launched a huge blitz on key populated areas of western #Aleppo this morning, as a ground offensive looks increasingly imminent.
Opposition & jihadists are deeply dug-in. They've had 2+ yrs to build defenses, including tunnel networks, trenches etc.
Yet more evidence today of increased #Turkey (via MIT) arms support to the #NLF in #Idlib & SW #Aleppo - multiple documented use of Grad MRLs (some filmed here) & multiple ATGM strikes (both Soviet-era & U.S.-made TOWs).
Fascinating reporting from @Josiensor, on audio intercepts revealing the presence of #IRGC and/or Fatemiyoun militiamen in al-Tamaneh, south of Marat al-Numan, #Idlib.
@Josiensor#pt: FWIW, there has been no evidence until now of #Iran-linked fighters being *killed* in combat on #Idlib frontlines, which would suggest that any presence is likely limited to an advisory (command/control, training) & support (logistics, artillery etc.) capacity.
@Josiensor#pt: After days of activity in W/SW #Aleppo on the other hand, we've seen clear evidence of #Iran-linked fighters engaged in combat, like this headband inscribed with a Shia slogan relating to Ali & Zulfiqar, captured today.
After 9 months, none of this has turned up in #Idlib.
@Josiensor Meanwhile on the S/SW #Aleppo front, as pro-#Assad (including #Iran-backed) forces press forward, #HTS conducted a suicide vehicle bombing in al-Zahra.
I'm told the attack occurred shortly after an ATGM took out the position's only tank.
@Josiensor On #Idlib's Marat al-Numan frontline, pro-#Assad forces continue to advance, beginning to encircle the town & placing #Turkey's Marat Hatat observation post in jeopardy.
1,000s of civilians are fleeing en masse today from a town that consistently resisted extremist influence.
@Josiensor Pro-#Assad forces are going all-out today - bombing towns like Marat al-Numan, Khan al-Subl & Saraqeb that lie on the M5, S/SE of #Idlib city.
Clear use of thermobaric & cluster munitions. People are fleeing in their 1,000s - a mass exodus.
@Josiensor Amid intensified bombing & shelling, entire towns are depopulating en masse.
#Idlib was *already* the biggest humanitarian crisis in #Syria's 9yrs of conflict -- it's now spiraling out of control.
People have nowhere to go; they just move once more.
- 358,000 displaced in #Idlib in 8 weeks.
- 400,000 more were displaced in earlier 2019 phase of fighting.
- 500,000 more likely to be displaced if fighting continues.
@Josiensor@SecPompeo The images coming from southern #Idlib are almost apocalyptic - roads jammed with car & trucks loaded to the hilt with people & their belongings, fleeing the pro-#Assad brutal assault.
Meanwhile in S/SW #Aleppo, 3 #Hezbollah fighters were reported killed yesterday, marking the resumption of #Hezbollah's anti-opposition campaign - which has been largely on pause for 18 months.
For another day, civilians are fleeing north in their 1,000s.
Urgent calls are going out for cars, vans & trucks to drive south to evacuate people - a "Dunkirk-style" effort.
Except they're fleeing towards a closed [#Turkey] border, where #IDP camps reached capacity months ago.
#pt: After days of negotiations, #Turkey has given permission for ~1,200 #SNA fighters to leave northern #Aleppo & reinforce frontlines in W. #Aleppo, currently under pro-#Assad assault.
Here's @DrZaineddin rallying the 1st batch, before their deployment earlier today:
@DrZaineddin#pt: My sources tell me the #SNA fighter transfer to W. #Aleppo wasn't just an issue being blocked by #Turkey - #HTS was also resisting, given their historical hostility w. the fighters in question (mostly #Zinki).
As such, they carry no heavy weapons:
@DrZaineddin#pt: Dispatching lightly-armed "infantry" originally from W. #Aleppo back to their home-front presumably indicates an intent to swell urban resistance, using fighters with deep local knowledge of the terrain.
But they're heading into a massive, unending wave of bombardment...
It's already stymied (by #Russia) inquiry into the targeted bombing of #Idlib hospitals is now months behind schedule - AS #Assad escalates his bombing campaign & #Moscow continues to single out hospitals for precision destruction.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt: As pro-#Assad forces sustain recent advances (Khan Touman taken today), #Turkey's rhetoric has escalated with threats of "military action" & new armored deployments on the #Idlib border.
#TSK has also created 2 new makeshift observation posts N & S of #Saraqeb, on the M5.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt I didn't think it would be possible to address humanitarian suffering in #Idlib without mentioning the fact that it's cause is #Assad, #Russia & #Iran -- but it turns out the @ICRC can do a truly excellent job.
- 150+ armored vehicles deployed into E. #Idlib.
- 4 new observation posts emerging along the M5.
- Big shipment of ATGMs to #NLF
- 100s #SNA transferred to frontlines
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt@ICRC#pts: #Turkey sent in helicopters yesterday to #Saraqeb to evacuate casualties, but locals say jets & helicopters have buzzed border areas repeatedly since.
BUT, #Assad (& #Russia) have continued brutal bombing - today an IDP mini-bus was struck killing 4 kids, 3 women & 2 men.
4 #Russia SOF troops (#FSB-linked) were killed there yesterday; their deaths noted now in #Russia, as per @CITeam_ru.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt@ICRC@CITeam_ru#pt: #HTS special forces "red bands," embedded with Tavhid va Jihod, captured a 'top-of-the-range' T-90 tank (& a BMP-1) from #SAA during intense fighting yesterday in west #Aleppo - amid a brief capture of al-Zahraa.
Al-Tarnab hosts the #Turkey observation post that was hit yesterday, killing 6 #TSK soldiers.
This'll be a huge test of how far #Ankara is willing to go to assert itself.
@DrZaineddin@UN@pt@ICRC@CITeam_ru Amid the most intense & geopolitically complex phase of NW #Syria hostilities, a U.S. MQ-9 Raptor UAV was spotted flying over #Idlib yesterday - presumably working a lead on a high-level #AlQaeda target.
#Ankara has clearly upped the ante lately, but the #SAA appears undeterred. The only chance of things de-escalating is if #Putin 'presses pause,' after speaking w. #Erdogan today.
The opening of W. #Aleppo front (led by #Iran) raised the prospects of sizable gains on 2 fronts, but pro-#Assad forces have lost 73+ fighters in 3-4 days:
BREAKING: pro-#Assad forces have entered the northern sector of #Saraqeb & reports say opposition/#HTS fighters have evacuated.
#Turkey's observation post remains in place, but if #TSK poses no resistance, #Erdogan's words of warning (& thus, his credibility) will crumble.
#pt: As has been the case with previous #Assad "victories" in NW #Syria (& elsewhere before), #Saraqeb has been transformed into a pile of rubble by #Syria & #Russia bombardment.
@myacoubian BREAKING - Multiple reports that #Turkey troops are shelling pro-#Assad forces who are attempting to enter #Saraqeb tonight.
@myacoubian UPDATE: #Turkey military is continuing shelling of pro-#Assad forces on the outskirts of #Saraqeb *and* now also shelling pro-#Assad forces around Tel Rifaat in northern #Aleppo.
- The town is not fully under siege, 1 road remains open & some opposition & #HTS forces remain in the town, engaged in clashes
- A major #NLF-#HTS counter-offensive to NW & SW has been launched on Karatin (captured), Neirab & Dadikh (under assault) & Afis.
@myacoubian#pt: Overnight, #Turkey deployed (for the 1st time?) main battle tanks (M60s) into #Idlib in order to establish new observation posts north of #Idlib city.
One new post, in #Taftanaz Airbase, was swiftly shelled by #Syria Army.
Locals say opposition/#HTS *and* #Turkey forces evacuated just before the siege was closed.
If accurate, that'd be the 1st time #TSK fled an observation post.
@myacoubian@GregoryPWaters BREAKING - #Turkey has just deployed a convoy of 200 military vehicles into #Idlib, including battle tanks, APCs, T-122 MRLs, howitzers etc.
Lots of rumors flying that #TSK plans to enforce a new buffer, ceding the M5 all the way north to #Aleppo.
The shelling came amid a brief & unprecedented *joint* #Turkey-opposition counter-offensive - intended as a warning pre-#Turkey-Russia talks in #Ankara today.
@myacoubian@GregoryPWaters#pt: In the last few days, #Turkey has deployed 1,000+ tanks, armored vehicles, multiple-rocket launcher systems & 100s of paratroopers into #Idlib.
The #NLF & #SNA have been supplied with armored personnel carriers, 122mm Grad rockets, anti-tank missiles & artillery pieces.
The IDP flow to the border, #TSK's public deployments & strategic shift, not to mention the loss of 12+ troops in 2 weeks, is too much to go unanswered.
- #SAA helicopter downed (maybe w. MANPADS)
- #SAA shelling targets #TSK
- #TSK gives artillery support to #NLF-#SNA-#HTS ops
- #Russia jets intensify strikes on urban populated centers
- 12+ killed in airstrike in #Idlib city
@myacoubian@GregoryPWaters#pt: Now that the #Assad regime is effectively sealing control of the M5 highway, the prospect of intensified airstrikes on #Idlib city (home to 450,000+) raise the prospect of yet another massive wave of displacement.
Already, nearly 700,000 have been displaced since Dec 1.
#Turkey's #Erdogan produced a blistering speech today aimed [primarily] at #Assad, declaring that #Syria's aircraft would not be able to "move freely anymore" & that #TSK would "chase" Syrian forces out of the #Sochi-delineated borders.
Ground maneuvers remain at high tempo but interestingly, @Sentry_Syria says *only* #Russia aircraft have been flying today (amid reports of #TSK MANPADS in play].
Recent hostilities in #Idlib has seen #Syria enter into "a whole new level of state-on-state conflict" & the humanitarian crisis is "totally unprecedented and will definitely only get worse."
The information space around #Syria has collapsed into a toxic pot of vitriol, wild misinformation and... some facts.
Large numbers of people are tragically dead, but the circumstances & context are far more complex than is being widely conveyed. A 🧵:
In the lead-up to Thursday night, pro-#Assad gunmen had launched 46 attacks on interim gov't forces in 6/14 of #Syria's governorates -- but what happened Thursday night was a whole other level.
3 days later, more than 400 gov't forces are confirmed as dead.
Almost all of those 400 gov't forces were locally-deployed -- many killed by summary execution, burned to death & buried alive.
In the 1st night of fighting, pro-#Assad gunmen also launched attacks on rival villages -- some Sunni, others Alawite.
Suffice to say, the chance of #Syria being granted any sanctions relief by the #Trump admin is now effectively zero.
#Assad loyalists knew exactly what they wanted -- an extension of the long-standing "#Assad or we burn the country" motto.
#Assad fell in an #HTS-led military campaign that demonstrated extraordinary & unprecedented self-restraint -- and in the aftermath, calls for 'reconciliation' & recovery kept a lid on a long-standing boiling pot of anger & grudges.
After a decade+ of pro-#Assad sectarian massacres, 82,000 barrel bombs, starvation sieges, 340+ chemical weapons attacks, industrialized torture & 130k disappeared -- the simmering fury & thirst for revenge was restrained only by the prospect of a new start.
- Launched ground incursions into x18 localities in SW #Syria, as deep as 12km;
- Conducted x3 airstrikes;
- Threatened a military intervention toward #Damascus;
- Demanded all of south #Syria be demilitarized.
#Israel says it distrusts #Syria's interim gov't & has sought to instrumentalize minorities to justify its interventions -- particularly the #Druze.
Yet the most powerful #Druze actors have publicly rejected #Israel's "interference" & "stoking division."
24hrs before #Israel began publicly linking the #Druze to its actions in #Syria, the "#Suwayda Military Council" began an online PR campaign -- which many took to be too much of a coincidence.
Their flag was also similar in style to the #SDF in NE #Syria.
NEW -- #Israel is threatening military intervention in #Syria tonight amid rising tensions between interim gov't forces & #Druze militiamen in #Damascus' suburb of #Jaramana.
What's going on? A brief 🧵:
Last night, #Druze militiamen in #Jaramana outside #Damascus attacked a handful of interim gov't forces -- killing one, injuring another & temporarily taking him hostage.
An hour later, the militiamen attacked & ransacked a state police station nearby.
#Druze notables in #Jaramana intervened last night, securing the hostage release & promising the gov't General Security Service to handover the men responsible for the x2 attacks.
That didn't happen & tensions are rising tonight, amid occasional gunfire.
NEW - #Syria’s interim gov’t GSS has captured senior #ISIS commander Abu al-Harith al-Iraqi in a targeted raid.
His capture is linked to US intel sharing with #Damascus. Abu al-Harith has been behind a string of high-profile #ISIS plots in #Syria. A 🧵:
When in #Damascus, I was told of 8 #ISIS plots that had been foiled by #Syria’s Interior Ministry GSS force since Jan 1, 2025 — all tied directly or indirectly to U.S. intel tip-offs.
There’s an ongoing [US-#HTS] exchange on #ISIS.
Abu al-Harith was the planner & facilitator of the #ISIS plot to massacre Shia Muslims in #Damascus’ Sayyida Zeinab foiled in January by #Syria’s GSS, per a US intel tip-off.
He also coordinated the April ‘24 assassination of Abu Mariya al-Qahtani.
I just left #Syria after an extraordinary trip — one that until recently I never thought I’d make again. From #Aleppo, to #Idlib, #Latakia, #Tartus, #Salamiya, #Suwayda & #Damascus.
So many takeaways, but most of all: it's free & everyone is overjoyed. A 🧵:
In #SNA-held areas of northern #Aleppo, towns had emptied, as IDPs have steadily returned home since #Assad's fall on Dec 8.
Checkpoints remained, but #Damascus forces (formerly #HTS) had begun to arrive. Authorities were transitioning to central control.
As in #SNA areas, #Idlib showed signs of service provision, maintenance & civil order that was lacking in formerly #Assad-run areas. Cleaner streets, orderly road & traffic management, *much* more electricity & more advanced/resourced commercial activity.