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Cezary Podkul @Cezary
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
New from me: Remember that @IEX "speed bump" Michael Lewis profiled in "Flash Boys"?

It's a 350 microsecond delay to inbound orders meant to foil #HFT traders.

An economist at the SEC has studied its impact and found that it's good for investors:
wsj.com/articles/study…
Here is a link to the study:

"Intentional Access Delays, Market Quality, and Price Discovery: Evidence from IEX Becoming an Exchange" by SEC's Edwin Hu

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
The paper is certainly not the last word on this topic but it does contradict some of the predictions made in comment letters to SEC opposing @IEX "speed bump" - like this letter from Citadel:

sec.gov/comments/s7-03…
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Important story by @hgillers about a risky strategy that often backfires

Chicago’s New Idea to Fix Its Pension Deficit: Take On More Debt. Proposed $10 billion bond would be biggest pension obligation bond ever issued by a U.S. city wsj.com/articles/chica…
Reminds me of this 2015 @ProPublica piece I did with Allan Sloan the last time cities and states were seriously looking at borrowing to shore up underfunded pensions. Our headline says it all: When Wall Street Offers Free Money, Watch Out
propublica.org/article/when-w…
Here's a big reason why funding ratios often don't improve after cities & states take on more debt: They borrow big and then go short on contributions to pension plans.
projects.propublica.org/graphics/pensi…
Read 3 tweets
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My latest: I've been on the mortgage trail lately, trying to figure out why Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy and securitize loans like these.

Fake tenants, fake income, but real loans? U.S. pursues one of the largest mortgage-fraud probes since 2008
wsj.com/articles/u-s-p…
Loans for apartment buildings where owners allegedly staged units to make them look occupied -- by playing radios inside units or putting doormats outside -- have sparked one of the biggest mortgage fraud probes since the 2008 financial crisis.

wsj.com/articles/u-s-p…
Lax and fraudulent lending on single-family homes before 2008 played a role in inflating and popping the housing bubble a decade ago. As demand for rental housing grows, will lax standards spread to the multifamily housing market?
Read 9 tweets
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“This generation was left on their own like no other generation before.”

A must-read on America's looming retirement crisis from @hgillers @annetergesen @lesliescism

A Generation of Americans Is Entering Old Age the Least Prepared in Decades
wsj.com/articles/a-gen…
And two related stories on this:

Growth in retiring baby boomers is straining U.S. entitlement programs: The ratio of retiree-aged adults to those of working age is rising, as @janetadamy and @poverberg reported yesterday.

wsj.com/articles/retir…
The solution is either:
a) Americans can have more babies, or
b) Boosting the working ranks with more immigration

But American women are having children at the lowest rate on record:
wsj.com/articles/u-s-b…

That adds another dimension to debate in Washington over immigration
Read 3 tweets

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#New Traders, Understand #Mathematics Of #Profit In Market Before You Put Hard #Earned Money On Risk.

Expectancy = Success Rate x Reward Risk Ratio

Lets Talk About Expectancy Of Short Term Directional Trading System.

Read On (1/n)
Success Rate = No Of Profitable Tades/ No Of Loss Making Trades

Reward Risk Ratio = Average Profit Per Trade / Average Loss Per Trade

If Success Rate is 0.5 and Reward Risk 2, Then

Expectancy = 2 x 0.5 =1

For Making Profit, Expectancy Should Be Positive Number (2/n)
To Calculate Expectancy, You Need Defined System With Rules To Get Success Rate and Reward Risk. If You Have No System To Take Decisions, You Are Hanging In Thin Air and Will Never No Whether You Will Keep Making Or Loosing Money In Future (3/n)
Read 12 tweets
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I have run many dozens of events, from 50 people to 15,000 people.

Keys to a great event / conference:

(thread)👇
Make the content (presentations etc) extraordinary. Conferences slowly die when the content declines.
It’s ok to have sponsors, but they get ZERO influence on content. As soon as you allow a “sponsored session” your event starts going to shit.

That does not mean sponsors never speak. If your independent editorial self says “we would have them speak if they didn’t sponsor” do it.
Read 20 tweets
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Arbitraggio di "latenza" e frammentazione della struttura del mercato US sono i concetti (da approfondire) su cui si basa la manipolazione del mercato americano, grazie al ruolo svolto da #HFT e Quants
per iniziare un video che rappresenta un "must"
#ES_F
Ogni rettangolo colorato nel video è un exchange,ce ne sono 13 che tradano equities US ma controllati da 3 gruppi,Nasdaq/Nyse/Cboe quest'ultimo domina su opzioni e futures con CME. Ma ogni giorno il 40% del volume di scambi avviene nell'oscurità delle dark pool (oggi 2,15 mld $!)
Qui incominciamo a vedere i vari livelli che intercorrono prima di arrivare ad un "buy" per un "comune mortale"...
Read 51 tweets
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New #QAnon Thread

6/3/18
New #QAnon 1666.
breitbart.com/big-government…

FVEY will be relevant going forward, especially the role of UK in #Spygate.

We're approaching [RR's] deadline to turn over docs or face consequences.

#Q says they have the server, so they have it all.
@POTUS #obamagate #Trump #MAGA
New #QAnon 1667.

Normally, intelligence passed from FVEY comes through an official channel, but Nunes says they used only unofficial channels.

Why? To hide their crimes from prying eyes?

#QArmy #MAGA #Spygate #obamagate #IGReport #MuellerProbe #DraintheSwamp @realDonaldTrump
Read 30 tweets
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#NEW on ARC2020: #CAP & #MFF | Eco-Spin without Public Goods Substance.
Its been 2 weeks since the MFF proposals, here's our round up of some of the perspectives so far.
All perspective-givers tagged in picture.
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
What's needed?
@davidbaldock & Allan Buckwell of @IEEP_eu:
1: Sufficient funding for environmental measures in Pillar 1
2: Specifics for New Delivery Model
3: Flexibility for Pillar 1 to 2 transfers
4. Fund ANCs under Pillar 1
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
#MFF #FutureofCAP #CAP
And who said: "unconditional direct income support to farmers is manifestly absurd in today’s world when it maintains uncompetitive farming practices that have negative implications for the climate, the environment or people’s health"?
Why @AnnikaAhtonen of @epc_eu
Read 8 tweets
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#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets

Trending hashtags

#JoushaBowman #MarchForOurLives #Vauseman #president #DeclassifyFISA #FreeFall2 #Davery #EvacuateNow #Ghost #SPX #Soso #Chair #Britt #Leo #MegaFam #TheStormIsUponUs #TPP #QAnon8chan #Jackson #DNC #Olivia #Cole #WRWY #Trump #Liz

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