Of the various Brexit stories floating about right now, this is the one that matters most.
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Pushing a final deal back past Oct makes sense given the lack of progress since the spring, but it comes at a considerable cost
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Firstly, it means that all the leeway for any further delay is gone: whether it's a special #EUCO in Nov or the regular one in Dec, both sides must reach agt then
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That's going to be hard, when you recall that we still haven't dealt with the most tricky aspects of Art.50, e.g. Irish dimension, governance, CJEU, etc.
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Secondly, it leaves hardly any time for ratification, which in turn means that meaningful vote (in any form) becomes less meaningful
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No.10 will be in stronger position to say take it or leave it, otherwise we run out of time for any deal.
Parliament would have to vote to force an extension request be made by HMG to EU to change that
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Parliament would have to vote to force an extension request be made by HMG to EU to change that
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Thirdly, and most immediately, if talk is of push back past Oct, then pressure drops once again on getting going now.
WP isn't coming until next month, but view might be that we leave everything until Sept.
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WP isn't coming until next month, but view might be that we leave everything until Sept.
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Understandable if you think a rest is as good as a change, but completely neglects that even to hit Nov/Dec, negotiations need to get turned up, not down
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In particular, UK needs to reach a position on IE, to unlock that section.
Chequers retreat is going to be a key opportunity to achieve that, although no immediate sign that a new viable consensus will be found
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Chequers retreat is going to be a key opportunity to achieve that, although no immediate sign that a new viable consensus will be found
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Summary: delay is highly problematic, even if it's unavoidable right now
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