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Jill Rutter @jillongovt
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
the last week's Parliamentary #brexit proceedings are called "ping pong" instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par… - but they actually look more like a grand slam tennis match.
spectators want an exciting five-setter... think Federer v Nadal in Wimbledon 2008 - and many are hoping for an upset in which the underdog wins
but what actually happens is that the challenger has a good first set.. makes the defending champion a bit uncomfortable -- and some think that maybe this time they are going to lose..
but they hold off the break points.. and then - possibly against the run of play - break at 5-4 ...
and then the opponent realises that it was always unrealistic to think they would win.. and, after some flashes of what might have been, surrenders 6-3, 6-2
so not Federer v Nadal but Nadal v Thiem at Roland Garros. This is the first and last time I compare Theresa May to Rafael Nadal. @nicolevIFG will now say this thread
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my suggestion to help the PM - EU agrees to set up a working group of technical experts as soon as WA passed to investigate and make recommendations on "technological and facilitative arrangements"
can include any experts nominated by the UK (so all the ERG's favourite experts) and reps from HMRC and Defra and Irish authorities + EU experts.
set a deadline to report by October 2019 so can be fed into the discussions on the long-run future relationship... and have it chaired by a neutral. Both sides agree to consider conclusions carefully as part of "best endeavours"
Read 4 tweets
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An eventful day in parliament.. govt went down to a defeat on contempt instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/con… - and will publish AG legal advice
that will look at the NI backstop - and presumably contains some warning on how hard it is to exit instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/no-easy-e… spoiler: it is
the govt then went down on an amendment to the business motion on the meaningful vote instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…
Read 15 tweets
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Interesting bits from the Prime Minister’s #Brexit letter …bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…. The absolute primacy of ending free movement as the driver of the Referendum result- perhaps the one Leave argument she personally buys..
But ending FOM for EU citizens also removes it from UK citizens. PM does not mention that.
Second the stress on the benefits of ending vast annual payments.. But she knows that direct savings will not be huge as we take over programmes (CAP, replacement structural funds), incur costs of setting up own agencies
Read 21 tweets

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A few thoughts on last night's events in Parliament.
1. As Grieve said himself, his amendment does not prevent a no deal (still the legal default), but does make it less likely by allowing Parli step in and tell the gov not to let it happen.
2. As @ThimontJack has said, by making Parli's 2nd vote amendable - the Grieve amendment allows MPs to push the can down the road again, using the first vote to reject the PM's deal, but only having to make substantive suggestions on what they want instead in round 2.
3. As most MPs don't want no deal, Grieve amdt ups stakes for hard Brexiters. If PM's deal is voted down, Parli may push for a softer Brexit or 2nd ref in vote 2. Makes it slightly more likely PM deal passes in vote 1, but less likely MPs would be bounced into 2nd vote on PM deal
Read 7 tweets
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When all the #Brexit chat is about parliamentary shenanigans it’s easy to forget that these decisions will have real-world impacts, including a potential #nodeal… here’s a quick look at where #nodeal planning currently stands:
1. First the good news: the Government has struck agreements with the USA, Canada and 8 other countries to ensure flights can continue even in the case of no deal (nothing yet on flights to/from/within EU countries though)

gov.uk/government/new…
2. And the Government’s lottery for road haulage permits has opened – so if you’re a haulage company that wants to transport goods across the EU after a #nodeal Brexit, get your application in now for a 5% chance of securing a permit (h/t @RHANews)

gov.uk/guidance/ecmt-…
Read 10 tweets
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As things stand there are two key options for the PM
- continue as planned & try to get deal through Parliament
- accept there will be no deal so immediately increase govt planning

In both cases the govt will have to go to parliament, I've set out no deal process below👇1/
EU Withdrawal Act says 3 prospects for no deal:
1) parly votes down the deal
2) PM announces that no deal can be reached by 21 Jan
3) 21 Jan arrives without a deal

In whichever scenario a minister has to make a statement saying what the govt plans to do next 2/
But Parliament will likely want to influence this process (e.g. extend article 50, second referendum) - because it is still unlikely there is a majority in the House for no deal

I think there are three ways that parliament could try and do this 3/
Read 8 tweets
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I have been thinking about the right parliamentary procedure for approving the Brexit deal. It is difficult, and I think the procedure could have a major bearing on the outcome.
The Government will table a motion in Parliament approving the withdrawal agreement and framework for a future relationship. There are three main options under discussion for how Parliament votes.
The first is a Queen’s Speech-style approach. MPs can put down amendments. The Speaker selects a few. MPs vote on amendments to the motion. If no amendments succeed, they then vote on the “clean” unamended motion at the end.
Read 21 tweets
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The Tories and their media mates are dodging the question of what happens when May's botched #Brexit deal gets voted out by The Commons.
This Thread is on why the Brexit deal vote is essentially a vote of confidence and why a defeat should mean a General Election.
(1 of 6)
The key concept here is 'confidence'. A government stays in power by having the confidence of the House of Commons. Meaning that it has a majority to pass its business. Losing a vote of confidence means they've 'lost' the House and by convention a General Election is due
(2 of 6)
The #Brexit deal vote is for all intents and purposes a vote of confidence. It is what the Tories have said themselves their government is all about achieving. It's been their excuse for neglect of other areas of policy, like social care. It is a "big set piece" vote.
(3 of 6)
Read 6 tweets
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Before the #whitepaper we thought amdts from Tory Remainers would be the big story this week on the #Brexit bills

Instead, after number of govt resignations, all eyes are on Brexiteer amdts to #CustomsBill

But what do they mean & what are some of the other amdts? 1/
ERG amdts
-prevent govt from collecting taxes/duties for territory without reciprocity
-NI can't be in separate customs territory to GB
-have to pass Act of Parl to participate in customs union
-remove powers to govern VAT of goods from territory if in a customs union with it 2/
1st is most difficult for govt as it goes against the govts customs proposal which would require the UK to collect tariffs on behalf of the EU

More info here: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pms…

Other 3 are compatible with govt policy but would prevent movement to a softer #Brexit 3/
Read 11 tweets

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