might be an opportunity to clarify my views on Apple vs Spotify.
TLDR Apple will surely win on iOS (and by extension in the US), at maturity market will probably be split around 60%/40% in Apple's favour. On Android apple isn't relevant and Spotify will be the dominant platform.
TLDR Apple will surely win on iOS (and by extension in the US), at maturity market will probably be split around 60%/40% in Apple's favour. On Android apple isn't relevant and Spotify will be the dominant platform.
long version:
1. Apple benefits from being pre-installed on iPhones. the competitive landscape is similar to the Apple/Google map wars. despite Apple maps being significantly worse than Google maps, it was used 3.5x more.
educba.com/highlights-of-…
1. Apple benefits from being pre-installed on iPhones. the competitive landscape is similar to the Apple/Google map wars. despite Apple maps being significantly worse than Google maps, it was used 3.5x more.
educba.com/highlights-of-…
2. there is an important difference though. Google was kicked out and replaced by Apple maps, so the casual user continued to use Apple by default. That's in contrast to music where Spotify wasn't kicked out and satisfied casual users didn't have to switch
3. another key point is that music usage is at its core a lot less casual than maps (because users have to pay and the experience is much more personal). so users are more incentivized to seek the better product
4. My conclusion from the above is that Apple will probably win in iOS, but by a much smaller margin than in maps. the final result (in iOS) will differ by market and will depend on Spotify's penetration prior to Apple's entry.
5. let's contrast Sweden with the US to illustrate the point.
Streaming is fully penetrated in Sweden (50%) while USA is at the early inning (14%). Accordingly, Spotify has 95% market share in Sweden and only 40% in USA.
Streaming is fully penetrated in Sweden (50%) while USA is at the early inning (14%). Accordingly, Spotify has 95% market share in Sweden and only 40% in USA.
6. That means that Apple won't win meaningful market share on iOS in Sweden and that it will in the US. Couple that with the dominance of the iOS platform in USA and Apple is primed to win the market there (but won't be dominant)
7. in general Music streaming is more penetrated in Europe, so Spotify's market share on iOS in the old continent will be larger than in the US
8. Besides the US, rest of low penetration markets are mostly developing countries where iPhone penetration is much lower, so while Apple Music's penetration on iOS might be significant, it's not that meaningful in the big picture
9. that leads us to the conclusion: Apple will win in iOS, but in a smaller margin than in the map wars. overall Apple will be bigger in the US (but not by much) and Spotify will be dominant abroad
