Brief thread on the key bits of today's White Paper. In short: def an evolution that takes the UK closer to a Swiss-style arrangement. EU unlikely to sign up to it. Lots in there to infuriate Brexiters (1/?)
Let's start with the paragraph confirming the central cog in the wheel of potential post-Brexit life: the Facilitated Customs Arrangement. Though the key word in this sentence is “phased”. How long until it’s implemented. Could be many, many years 2/? 
How to make this effective single market for goods work? There’ll have to be a “common rulebook” for product standards etc. This is the bit that most infuriated Brexiteers. Implies UK will have to cling to EU standards for foreseeable future 3/?
This is also new: rather than trying to have an all-seeing computer tracking which goods are coming in and going into the EU, there will be a "trusted trader" scheme biz will have to sign up to. More compliance costs. But less interference 4/?
Does common rulebook preclude future trade deals with others? Depends on who u mean. Aus/NZ seem happy to agree a trade deal and adapting to EU standards. US far less keen. Doesn’t necessarily kill a US-UK trade deal. But certainly makes it less likely 5/?
Then there’s the ECJ bit. Does the ECJ still preside over key UK decisions on trade? Yes and no. There’ll be a new “Joint Committee" of UK and EU representatives. But if this fails to agree, they will be able to refer the matter to the ECJ. Will upset Brexiteers 6/?
This bit likely to irritate Brussels. Effectively it means they’d have to renegotiate their FTAs (eg with S Korea, Mexico etc) to allow UK parts etc to count towards a finished product being considered “made in the EU”. 7/?
Freedom of movement ends. BUT UK will use various complex levers to ensure EU workers will be able to work in UK. In theory means EU won’t be given extra migration rights in future. In practice, this cld be used to allow them to send more workers to UK than other countries 8/?
This bit has already upset the City. For months it (inc BoE/FSA) had been aiming for what it called “mutual recognition”. That’s now out the window. Will this cause a city exodus? No. Will it mean some of those jobs being moved to Frankfurt/Paris et al don’t come back? Probz 9/?
Notably absent from the document is any estimate of the cost of this. Or the economic impact. That's what really matters. Instead all we get is a lot of text - mostly vague - and this slightly uninformative flow chart 10/?
By far the most important paragraph in the White Paper is this one. Nothing in this document is agreed until it's agreed with the EU. And that's before one considers whether it could get thru parliament... 11/?
Does white paper have flaws? Hell yes. Is it workable? Hmm maybe. If everyone actually signed up. Which is unlikely. It is what it is. A heroic effort to square the circle of how u leave customs union/single market without a hard border. Kind of amazing they came up with anything
