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Ben Chu @BenChu_
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A no-deal Brexit could happen 'by accident', says Jeremy Hunt. Andy Grice in @Independent says otherwise, arguing Parliament would step in to prevent it...:
...a great deal in the Brexit negotiations hinges on who is right. If the EU side know that Hunt is making empty threats they will obviously ignore it and adopt a hard line....
....of course it's possible that Hunt's rhetoric is more for the consumption of europhobic Tory members than EU negotiators
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The argument from @scmallaby here that Italy's growing debt-to-GDP ratio since 1999 is mainly due to profligate state spending and an absence of market discipline is flawed... washingtonpost.com/opinions/italy…
...first, here's the debt-to-GDP picture. Yes, as he says, up significantly in France and Italy. & big contrast with Germany, where its been falling since 2012....:
...but is Italy's debt ratio due to vast budget deficits in Italy, as he implies? Actually, Italy has had lower annual deficits than the rest of the G7 since 2000 (as has France)...:
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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1) who are the stupid #Brexit people John?
A regular device from brexiters is to say that #PeoplesVote supporters think Leave voters were stupid

It's true that there were very many incredibly, boneshakingly dense Brexiters, but they were leading, not following

Some examples
2) Melanie Philips is a regular pro #Brexit columnist, arguing for a tough line on the EU.

This is her finding out *only last night* that we represent 10% of the EUs total exports compared to 45% of ours going to the EU

Her confused look is remarkable

3) David Davis, Brexit secretary and former EU minister, believed *even after the referendum* that we could strike illegal individual deals with Germany, France etc, something utterly forbidden under EU law

This was the basis of his Leave position
Read 17 tweets
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It had always been government’s belief that if it cld speak to the Member States rather than the Commission it wld get a better #Brexit deal. The UK, they thought, could divide & rule. Jeremy Hunt’s comments have put an end to that. #Brexit
Comparing the #EU to the Soviet Union is the latest easily avoidable diplomatic error made by a cabinet minister. Hunt’s comments have lead to countries that used to be the UK’s best friends in the Council (like Estonia & Latvia) openly stating that he has insulted them. #Brexit
If the UK was to successfully divide & rule, it needed to keep its friends close. What it is doing is pushing them away. #Brexit
Read 10 tweets
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As the UK pores over the government's no-deal notices, let's have a look at how all of this is seen on the EU side.

Running thread (👇) on reactions & commentary from EU media, industry groups, politicians, etc.
German centre-left @SZ sees today's no-deal publications as partly “a threat to make the EU accommodate London in the [Brexit] negotiations.”

Writes that Theresa May uses "fear as a weapon", also against opponents within her own party.
zeit.de/wirtschaft/201…
Also Austrian daily @derStandardat writes that the UK government “has recognised that such a [no-deal] scenario can help her to exert pressure on the EU.”

Goes on to warn that “much would become more difficult for EU citizens” under a no-deal scenario. derstandard.at/2000085912487/…
Read 11 tweets
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Getting Member States involved in #Brexit negotiations will not help the #UK. It will most likely fuel domestic politicization of Brexit in #EU27 countries. This will be detrimental to UK interests.
UK #Brexit strategists and commentators as diverse as @Jeremy_Hunt, @CER_Grant , @anandMenon1 and @fromTGA warn about the dangers of No Deal for British public opinion and call on #EU27 member states to get involved.

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
The British people will hate the EU for a generation, they warn.

The idea/hope is that MS governments will be more willing to give in to British demands. I think this is a flawed argument that overlooks the dynamics of politicization.
Read 13 tweets
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New Foreign Secretary @Jeremy_Hunt is in Paris to discuss Brexit & bilateral relations. Can he expect any favours? (mini thread)
1. The good news: France values UK relationship – ally in Middle East, Africa, UN and NATO & partner on intelligence, counter-terrorism. Discussions take place at bilateral level, so largely unaffected by Brexit.
2. The flip-side: France clear that Brexit negotiations are led by the EU. Its position hasn’t changed: UK cannot expect same benefits or preferential treatment. UK-EU trade will inevitably be weaker.
Read 9 tweets
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*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets

Trending hashtags

#EU27 #NHS #Brexit #EmbraceLove #Traitorous #xenophobia #PeoplesVote #BrexitAnalysis #brexit #WindrushGeneration #The5Million #FBPE #challenge #PAMFAM #Belgium #Spain #Fraud #FishingInTransition #Windrush #Prexit #Turkey #EUCO #Ireland #Article50 #BrexitDeal

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