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Claire Berlinski @ClaireBerlinski
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I find this terrifying. I have no doubt it would lead to a nuclear exchange: A world with only *two* major nuclear powers only avoided an exchange by luck. If Germany nukes up, the NPT is dead. Any country that can, will. Many countries that can. Then--just a matter of time.
That said, were I a German defense minister, I don't see how I could in conscience take the risk of leaving Germany defenseless--and right now, it is. Germany bet the farm on NATO (it wasn't given much choice, really), and hasn't much of a conventional military to speak of.
How could it build one? The German public refuses resolutely even to consider it: Germans have been profoundly indoctrinated--for a damned good reason--to believe that God will strike them dead if they even *think* about war again. It's like asking Americans to be subtle:
It just isn't reasonable to expect fundamental cultural changes overnight. Think what had to be done to get Germans to become a nation of pacifists! It wasn't easy! You suddenly say, "Taxes are going to skyrocket, we're drafting your kids, and this is going to happen *fast*--
Well, the electorate won't like it. And Germany's a democracy, so it won't happen. That said, German defense planners *do* know that Germany hasn't been plundered--as wealthy and defenseless countries tend to be--because it's been sheltering under a nuclear umbrella.
They know that "France will guarantee our security" are not words an adult can utter with a straight face. They know the US *and* Russia have each lost their minds in their own special ways; and they know their job description is: "Keep Germans safe."
What's the fastest, cheapest, easiest solution? The solution they could have at their fingertips by next Monday, should they wish? A solution compatible with Germany's vision of itself, even, because *no one* builds one of those and says, "It's for a first strike," not even Iran.
It's just a bit of deterrence. An insurance policy.

I'd be tempted, too.
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