Thread by @GoodwinMJ

Why Britain's Conservatives should do all they can to avoid an election
/A short thread

It's no secret that the only thing uniting Conservative MPs is not wanting to go to the country

It's also no secret that the Chequers Brexit deal announced in early July has gone down like a lead balloon among most Conservative voters & also Leavers (as I outlined here -> bit.ly/2uRU1nh)

Since Chequers, across all polls, here are the party averages (& changes since the 2017 general election):

Labour 39% (-1)
Conservatives 38% (-4.4)
Lib Dems 9% (+1.6)
UKIP 6% (+4.2)

Cons are down, UKIP are up, Labour is basically holding static but it's average is now inching ahead

In fact, of the 14 polls that we have now had since Chequers Brexit was announced the Conservative Party has only led in one

Jeremy Corbyn basically needs just shy of a 2-point swing to get into coalition territory and around a 4-point swing to get a working Labour majority. Given some of the numbers we've had of late those are entirely plausible, likely even

Were an election held tomorrow, then something of a perfect storm could easily form above the Conservative Party. And it would look a little bit like this ...

With the Con vote share down, UKIP's vote share up 3 fold on 2017 and some likely Conservative apathy, the first problem would be the Conservative Party holding marginal and more pro-Leave seats

There are about two dozen or so that could go, from Southampton Itchen to Thurrock, Hastings & Rye to Calder Valley, Norwich North to Stoke on Trent South, from Northampton North to Bolton West, Mansfield to Northampton South

This is especially problematic for Cons because what a lot of folks forget is that since 2015 their electorate has become more dependent on "blue-collar Britain" - working-class, non-graduate, older, pro-Leave, worried about immigration (who are also more likely to vote)

A not insignificant number of these voters have already had a one night stand with UKIP at various elections between 2012-2016, and so defecting strategically to a second home is not an alien concept to them. They've done it before.

Meanwhile, based on the numbers above, the Conservatives would face another problem on a second flank - likely losing pro-Remain marginal seats such as Pudsey, Chipping Barnet, Hendon & Putney

This problem would also become evident in Cons failing to recapture seats lost in 2017 like Kensington & Chelsea or Canterbury where Labour will likely continue to entrench itself in London, big cities and the university towns

Were the current slump to continue it would also likely make it that much harder for Cons to recapture other seats that were lost in 2017, not all of which are strongly pro-Remain, like Crewe & Nantwich, Keighley, Peterborough, Stockton South, Colne Valley, Lincoln, Portsmouth S

Now, in another world where the Cons 1) had managed Brexit fairly competently 2) framed it as an opportunity to reform Britain & seriously address 'burning injustices' and 3) not alienated their core voter groups then it could be argued they would have better shot here & also..

Pro-Leave Lab seats like Dudley North, Newcastle under Lyme, Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Wakefield, Stoke on Trent North, etc. In 2017 Cons grew fastest in most pro-Leave (& often w.class) seats. Problem was they did not grow fast enough to overcome often historic Lab strength

So, unless things somehow change, the Cons are stuck between a rock & a hard place, stuck in the middle of a partial realignment; on one side they've irritated Remainers & on other have delivered a Chequers Brexit proposal that has irritated their core groups/fanned Ukip flames

What they should do comes down to your own politics. My view for what it's worth is that they face a short-term & long-term challenge
Long-term: Cons need to rebuild coalition & obviously reach out to Remainers/social liberals, graduates & minorities. That's a no-brainer. BUT ...

Short-term: those groups are simply never going to consider Cons in the current highly divisive electoral cycle. Brexit Land will cast a long shadow over British politics. So, the next election will be a game of differential turnout on both sides - who can get their people out

That's why the last month is so risky/dangerous/damaging for Cons. Because a perfect storm is approaching, one where they've not only irritated instinctive Remainers who will continue to rally round Labour but also managed to turn off Leavers, some of who are already jumping ship

There are still opportunities to revive offer, the new immigration policy being one, perhaps or even new (autumn?) leader but the window is closing. Corbyn has never been closer to No. 10 hence why Cons want to avoid election at all costs! /ends

p.s. here are the seats that would likely fall under the current scenario (thks @steve_hawkes) thesun.co.uk/news/7000186/c…