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Michael Otsuka @MikeOtsuka
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit and @UCU: the union will "consult with members on whether UCU should support a second referendum on any final Brexit deal negotiated by the UK government". 1/
This is highly relevant to universities in a number of respects, not least of which #USS: 2/
The union's No Detriment to the status quo position might stand a chance only if #USS is right that the gilt yield will revert by +1.5% above market forecasts. 3/
There would be little chance of such reversion, in the event of a No Deal hard Brexit, whereas a decision to Remain, or at least to join the EEA, would render this far more plausible. 4/
For this and other reasons, I hope @sheffielducu and its President @Sam_Marsh101 will overcome their neutral position on a referendum on any final Brexit deal negotiated by the government. 5/
ucu.group.shef.ac.uk/news-and-event…
For information, @UcuLeft has a post in opposition to such a referendum, on grounds that "Calls for a second referendum will also understandably be seen [as] a Metropolitan elite ignoring the democratic will of working people." 6/6
uculeft.org/2018/07/establ…
👆But the democratic will of working people appears to be shifting: "More than 100 Westminster constituencies that voted to leave the EU have now switched their support to Remain...." 1/
"... the shift has been driven by doubts among Labour voters who backed Leave. As a result, the trend is starkest in the north of England and Wales – Labour heartlands in which Brexit sentiment appears to be changing." 2/2
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
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#USS

More from @MikeOtsuka see all

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In their new valuation #USS continues to make a "large and demonstrable mistake" in applying Test 1, which they now ineptly try to explain away by contradicting past statements (see embedded thread). 1/
JEP has made a strong case for funding existing DB & DC benefits at a lower contribution level than USS is calling for. 2/
But the regulator (tPR) is calling for an even more conservative valuation than the one #USS issued last week. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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#USS provides blinkered, inaccurate, exaggerated measures of risk in their consultation document, all three of which are tied to the gilt yield. More comments below. 1/
The first (see 5.4.1) is their measure of 'long term risk' in terms of their infamous Test 1 gap to 'self-sufficiency' in 20 year's time. Self-sufficiency is a gilts+0.75 portfolio. 2/
As I explain in this thread, it's only when they rewrite history by contradicting past statements that they are able to show a need to 'de-risk' into bonds in order to meet this test. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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🚨🚨🚨#USS contradicts itself in its latest attempt to answer the critique arising from @Sam_Marsh101's findings regarding expected asset level 20 years hence. See the following highlighted passage from p. 12 of the consultation document on the 2018 valuation: 1/
This parenthetical claim is an attempt to deny that they ever assumed that col 1 row 1 would equal col 2 row 1 in @Sam_Marsh101 graph below. 2/
But the record shows that #USS previously identified the target path as the expected path. See this highlighted statement from the transcript of @GuyCoughlan's video of May 2018: 3/
Read 12 tweets

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1) EU watching to see if their #Brexit deal negotiated with the PM is defeated in parliament tomorrow and if so, by how much
2) EU leaders will invite Theresa May to tell them what’s going on in the U.K, what her next steps will be and what she hopes for from them at their scheduled EU summit on Weds and Thursday this week #Brexit
3) EU v much wants to avoid a no-deal scenario but EU leaders unlikely to provide even written clarifications on controversial #Brexit issues like the backstop to help the PM unless they get a pretty cast iron guarantee that will get the deal through Parliament in a second vote
Read 5 tweets
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Ahead of of #PMQs, here's what is actually happening with #Brexit at the moment (thread):
Theresa May's government has become the first in history to be held in "contempt of parliament" after refusing to release the full legal advice offered on the Brexit divorce deal po.st/WgEww8
MPs have won the right to have a "meaningful vote" on Brexit plans if the PM's withdrawal agreement is defeated in parliament next week po.st/zc58Dr
Read 7 tweets
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1) While all versions of #Brexit under the sun are being thought about in Parliament there’s no whiff of the EU changing its position
2) EU member states are not (yet) discussing the possibility of a second referendum or an extension of article 50 negotiating time amongst themselves
3) Regardless of the result of the vote in parliament on 11th, the EU is adamant the deal on the table is the best compromise for both sides - they say they can and will go no further
Read 10 tweets
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#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

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