Profile picture
Brendan Bernstein @BMBernstein
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Diversification reduces idiosyncratic risk. All monetary assets today have risk b/c of CB meddling or b/c it’s not fully adopted (gold)

Consequently, people diversify savings into oil, RE,art, etc.

But, in a world of a single reserve SoV, diversifying money is an anachronism
Money is supposed to be the asset with the lowest idiosyncratic risk. But today in the “everything bubble” and era of CB intervention, there arent great set it and forget savings vehicles

A myriad of non moneys have an imbued monetary premium

IMO this collapses with sound money
Would the art market be so large without fiat currencies, for example? I don’t think so. Real estate too even

This doesn’t mean people won’t invest to generate income but that people won’t hold assets like art *just* to store value
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Brendan Bernstein
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BMBernstein see all

Profile picture
Deficits will increase until there are negative ramifications. But that will be too late

People lose faith in the USD and the only recourse to weakness will be to jack rates up

In 2022 100% of our budget will already be going to existing liabilities

We cant afford higher rates
It’s easy to see this spiraling out of control

Other countries stop buying treasuries —> we jack up rates further -> our interest expenses increase and we need to issue more debt —> more people stop buying —> higher rates...etc
Given our existing liabilities — both entitlements + debt — we’re on a surefire path to massive tax hikes that all go to pay *existing* entitlements

This is a recipe for instability.

The working class is going to be funding the excesses of the last 50 years
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Cramer in 2000, days before the collapse:

"throw out all of the matrices and formulas that existed before the Web....they can't make money for you anymore, and that is all that matters. If we use any of what Graham and Dodd teach us, we wouldn't have a dime under management.”
This is similar to "cryptonetwork valuation thinking

Null hypothesis should be that the status quo is unchanged: assets are worth discounted future cash flows

Errors with tech valuation weren't because of a lack of tools but bc of errors predicting cash flow and new biz models
The tacit assumption is that crypto has created an entirely new paradigm -- for both asset valuation and fundraising

But my base case assumption is that other than which ONE ASSET wins as the primary money, the only way others can accrue value will be through cash flow
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
i'm long web 3 if it means decentralizing trusted 3rd parties

but IMO every attempt on a b-chain is not close to what it'll ultimately look like

progress in crypto is just inertia --Iterating on existing b-chains just for innovations sake

nobody questioning the premise itself
what if the right model to create a censorship resistant web isn't on a blockchain with a native token?

most goals can be accomplished with existing software. Do people forget the whole p2p wave?

governance of OSS already exists and so do distributed protocols (DHTs, IPFS)
feels like people are wedded to the token model from a sunk cost fallacy, and all the investment $$ of web 3.0 is still going into very similar ideas

but my bet is that FB isn't going to be disrupted by a social network on a blockchain that ICOs....
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Hi all 😀Great week in the market. Coming weeks will be very interesting - but likely decieving imo. Rally/drops in one direction only to shift direction again. Ready for some #HZupdates on #SP500, #EURUSD, #Gold, #Bonds etc.? Stay tuned!
Today I want to take on both #USD Bulls and Bears 😀 I hear a lot of either "USD hegemony is over" or "USD is going to soar for years to come". I think the truth is somewhat in between - but with a slight advantage to the Bull's side #HZupdates
Looking at the very long perspective, DXY has been in a decline. But - it has formed an ending diagonal, and the drop below trendline in 2008 was very likely THE bottom. Since it has been in wave 1 of the new Bull Market - which has formed a leading diagonal #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
Profile picture
The YouTube algorithm that I helped build in 2011 still recommends the flat earth theory by the *hundreds of millions*. This investigation by @RawStory shows some of the real-life consequences of this badly designed AI.
This spring at SxSW, @SusanWojcicki promised "Wikipedia snippets" on debated videos. But they didn't put them on flat earth videos, and instead @YouTube is promoting merchandising such as "NASA lies - Never Trust a Snake". 2/
A few example of flat earth videos that were promoted by YouTube #today:
3/
Read 22 tweets
Profile picture
Gold: Tomorrow marks the 10-year anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers and, consequently, economists, market commentators and journalists have been rolling out their thoughts on both the financial crisis and the subsequent decade.

1/14
Gold: How did #gold fare through the crisis? This chart, from July 2008 to July 2009, shows no sign of gold moving rapidly higher? In fact, gold fell in the fourth quarter of 2008 as the dollar strengthened and gold was used as a source of liquidity (and sold.)

2/14
Gold: Although in the first half of 2009 #gold was comfortably above the level it was when Lehman failed…

3/14
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
Gold: Sitting like a Coiled Spring, #gold remains below $1200/oz on Monday, although it has recovered a little ground from the lows last week. 1/7
Gold: Why did I use the ‘Coiled Spring’ analogy? Because of build-up of Managed Money short #gold positions held on the Comex Futures market. Gross Managed Money short positions increased by a further 1.7 million ounces last week and now stand at a new record 18.8moz. 2/7
Gold: This has driven the net Managed Money #gold position to a larger net short position. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
ABD'nin ozellikle son donemde S.Arabistan, #Iran uzerinden sert bir dille verdigi tum mesajlarin altinda ki asil hedefi #Çin'dir..

Daha dogrusu petro-dolar ile petro-Yuan arasinda yasanan amansiz savaş..

Bu konuyu tum ayrintilariyla irdeleyerek
🔻#FLOOD'umuza🔻 baslayalim.
1-Çin ile ABD arasında yaşanan ekonomik hegemonya savaşı, 2018 yılının başlarından itibaren yeni ve daha etkili bir evreye girdi. 2000’lerden bu yana dünya hegemonyasında ekonomik üstünlüğü ele geçirmiş olan Çin, bu hegemonyasını pekiştirecek yeni adımlar attı.

#KiminBaşarısı
2-Trump,  Mart ayının ilk günlerinde, “çok aptalca olan ticaret anlaşmaları ve politikaları nedeniyle”, ABD’nin yıllık 800 milyar$ bütçe açığı verdiğini ve buna bir son vereceğini söyledi. Ardından, çelik ithalatına %25, alüminyum ithalatına ise %10 ek gümrük vergisi getirdi..
Read 65 tweets
Profile picture
Thread....
What is the size of the global #oil spare production #capacity?
1- Spare capacity doesn't matter, what matters is the "effective spare capacity", which is what you can bring on line within 90 days of crude quality that buyers are willing to buy.

#OPEC
2- therefore, there are three conditions:
a- Supply: has to be produced within 90 days
b- Demand: Buyers are willing to buy it: crude quality and price wise
c- Delivery: Ability to deliver to byers. Stranded #oil production with no pipeline to transport should not be counted,
3- Effective spare capacity can be maintained for a long period if needed. Here we have to distinguish between "effective spare capacity" and "surge capacity." If those countries have to increase production only for few days, they can use surge capacity, which is way higher
Read 8 tweets

Trending hashtags

#EURUSD #Oil #gold #KarsiliksizPara #Iraq #Mullaghbawn #NavanFort #dolar #asylum #หวังcเยี่ย #exportation #DXY #NSMQ2018 #capacity #Silver #OPEC #Irish #bonds #clothes #IEA #ateşolmayanyerden #b #Texas #today #Nixon

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!