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Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg
, 18 tweets, 16 min read Read on Twitter
Hi all 😀Great week in the market. Coming weeks will be very interesting - but likely decieving imo. Rally/drops in one direction only to shift direction again. Ready for some #HZupdates on #SP500, #EURUSD, #Gold, #Bonds etc.? Stay tuned!
Today I want to take on both #USD Bulls and Bears 😀 I hear a lot of either "USD hegemony is over" or "USD is going to soar for years to come". I think the truth is somewhat in between - but with a slight advantage to the Bull's side #HZupdates
Looking at the very long perspective, DXY has been in a decline. But - it has formed an ending diagonal, and the drop below trendline in 2008 was very likely THE bottom. Since it has been in wave 1 of the new Bull Market - which has formed a leading diagonal #HZupdates
#DXY So far the Bulls are correct. This wave 1 is not done yet. We will see one more high, which is building before we reach the top of wave 1. I expect 107-109. But - this is where I think the Bulls are mistaken. As the USD stregthens, it becomes a problem to RoW #HZupdates
#DXY Fed will have to intervene to weaken the USD at some point. This I expect to happen Mid-2019. It will be very Bearish USD and DXY is likely to CORRECT IN WAVE 2 which can take us ALMOST all the way back to BOTTOM of 2008. See this is the part, that the Bulls miss. #HZupdates
#DXY This decline can take years before bottom has been reached. RoW will be complaining about inflation, the US is exporting. The need for Monetary Reset is becoming clearer. See - this decline is where #gold will shine for real as fiat currencies becomes unwanted #HZupdates
So - yes USD Bulls - you are right on the Bull market and USD will strengthen a lot coming months (I'm LONG) 😀👍 But - nothing rallies in a straight line. Wave 2 corrections can be deep AND a backtest of the breakout (see BT in chart) is very likely #HZupdates
#DXY on ST perspective, is likely going to push up one more time - before it turns down. I'm sure we will hear many calls for major top in USD. It is not! USD will strengthen much further and any weakness will be opportunity to go LONG #HZupdates
#DXY pushes higher one ast time, so #EURUSD will push lower ones more before a strong rally, which will take EURUSD higher than most people anticipate at this time. This will not change my perspective of a CRASH in EURUSD during Q1-Q2 2019. LT-target remains 0.91 #HZupdates
#XAUUSD Bulls have been quiet lately. I think they soon will be somewhat happier as #Gold is likely to rally (initial weakness). The rally is the last chance to get out of any Long positions before the crash of Gold in Q1-Q2 2019. I have lowered my LT-target to ~745!! #HZupdates
#SP500 is in a major BEAR market, which is likely to unfold in 3 major phases. First, deflationary bust (we are in the midst of it). Then by Mid-2019 when Fed has to come to the rescue - a bounce. Then later a decline as #stagflation sets in. #HZupdates. Much lower levels ahead!
#SP500 BUT - nothing drops in a straight line. And ST (after initial weakness), I expect a large rally to set in. The Christmas Rally is on. 🎅🎄 This will bring confident bulls back in - just to get slaughtered, as wave 3 down sets in. #HZupdates
As with #SP500, I have been calling for a top and a strong decline in #Oil. It is on! But as with everything else, we will soon see a bounce. The LT target is 22-23 (perhaps lower) by end-2019 #HZupdates
As #Gold and #Commodities, also #Silver will drop in this #deflationary phase of the economic downturn. Silver is likely to reach bottom of 2008, before any solid take off can be expected. Represents a fantastic buying opportunity IF purchased at the right time #HZupdates
EU is a lot of trouble! #DAX looks terrible. So do rest of European indices. Get out of European stock - and perhaps use this coming bounce in indicies. One more rally up to test neckline in #DAX - then CRASH!! LT-target for Dax is ~3500 #HZupdates
So everything looks bad? Not really - #TLT and other US #bonds represent fantastic value at this point! We will likely see 1 more drop before take off. This is aligned with a risk-on rally in stocks during December #HZupdates
#Bitcoin so unloved now. Hope you remember my chart! I expect at least a drop to ~2000. It was a clear cont. pattern - and now it broke. If I look at LT-chart for bitcoin - it could pot. drop much further before finding a bottom (300-400??) #HZupdates
What needs to be said about #Bitcoin is, that it could POTENTIALLY become easy way of escaping from fiat currencies, when USD rally is done. When/if Fed or US admin embark on some stimulus path, Bitcoin may be loved again as investors seek to flee from stagflation #HZupdates
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