Thread by @robfordmancs

OK, this previous tweet re: German has made me curious. So a quick thread looking at how are the rad rt is doing across Europe, then a look at how the "new left" is doing. In each country, I'll look at how they're polling relative to last election's performance. 1/?

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1031592916337274881

Starting with the Nordics, incl several countries where rad rt have been established for a while:
Norway - 12% (-3)
Sweden - 20% (+7)
Finland - 9% (-9)
Denmark - 18% (-3)

So one sharp rise, one sharp fall, two gentle falls. Guess which one we all hear about?

North-West Europe:
Netherlands: PVV down slightly, but there's another new party that might be classified as rad rt (FvD) so I'd classify it as up overall, quite a lot.
Belgium: Vlaams Belang up 3-4 points in Flanders
UK: UKIP up 3-4 points after 2017 collapse (well below 2015)

North & West Europe
Ireland: still no rad rt, as prev
France: Marin Le Pen up c.2% in Pres polls, can't find Parl polls
Switzerland: SVP flat on last time (but that was 29%!)

Med countries:
Spain: one small rad rt splinter on 2%, previously nowt
Portugal: Nothing, as prev
Italy: Lega on 30%, up 10-13 points on record election win
Greece: Golden Dawn c10%, up about 3 points

Others:
Austria: FPO 24%, down about 2 points
Luxembourg: not sure can't find polling

So, looking at W Europe (E Europe party systems diff), rad rt:
Up a lot: Sweden, Italy, NL
Big & stable (up/down a little): Norway, Denmark, Switz, Austria, France, Germany
Moderate & stable: Belgium, Greece
Down a lot: Finland
Small/absent: UK, Spain, Portugal, Ireland

In short, a lot of variation in performance by this v minimal measure (polls ow vs last election). Fits with general picture of rad rt becoming more established as part of the W European party furniture, which is the LR story overall, but not with major recent surge I think.

OK, so lets' take a look at "new left" (by this I'm meaning Green and Liberal left parties and radical left parties that are newer than traditional "social democratic" left parties but ally with them in Parliaments (will report each separately)

Nordics:
Nor - new/rad left 12 (+4): SV 7 (+1) R 5 (+3) Greens: 3 (n.c.)
Swe: new/radical left: 11 (+2) V 10 (+4) FI 1 (-2) Grns 5(-2)
Fin: new/rad left: VAS 9 (+2) Grns: 14 (+5)
Den: new/rad left: 21(+5) Red-Grn All 9 (+1) Soc Libs 6 (+1.5) Soc Ppls 6 (+2) Grn: Alt 4(-1)

West/NW Europe:
NL: new/rad left 13 (+1) - SP 8 (-1) PvdD 5 (+2) Greens (GL): 10 (+1) Soc libs (D66): 10 (-2)
Bel (Flanders): new/rad left (PvdA) 6 (+3) Greens 12 (+3)
UK: No new/rad left party (tho Lab may go that way under Corbyn) Greens: 3 (+1) Soc libs (Lib Dems) 9 (+1.5)

N & W Europe (ctd):
Ireland: new/rad left: SF c.20 (+6) S-PBP 2 (-2) Greens 2 (-1)
France: can't really do without nat assembly polling
Germany: new/rad left: Linke 10 (+1) Greens 14 (+5)
Switz: Greens 7 (n.c.) Green liberals 6 (+1.5)
Austria: rad left (PILZ) 2 (-2) Greens 4(nc)

Med:
Spain: New/rad left (PODEMOS) 17 (-4)
Portugal: New/rad left (Left Bloc) 10 (n.c.) Green-Communist coalition (unusual?) 7 (-1)
Italy: New/rad left - LeU 3 (n.c.) PaP 3(+2)
Greece: New/rad left 32 (-9) - SYRIZA 25 (-11) Communists 7 (+2) Popular Unity 3 (n.c.)

Put it all together, and we can draw three conclusions I think - firstly, new/radical left is segment of similar size (15-25%) in most countries as rad rt. Party systems fragmenting. Secondly, new left v fragmented Typically 2-3 parties representing diff strands.

Thirdly, in many countries rad left advances are as substantial as rad rt, both SR and over medium term. But new/rad left is more fragmented, so changes more complicated/hard to interpret. While rad rt is more unified, so rise in support easy to spot for outsiders.

Overall, both phenomena are important for understanding changing party systems, and in neither case is there a consistent SR or LR trend across all of Europe apart from growing fragmentation and volatility, which appear to be true practically everywhere (except Britain!)