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Brexit Job Losses 🇬🇧 @MrHickmott
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here is Andy's pictorial guide to Brexit slogans:
1. A "Hard Brexit". This means running off a cliff edge on 29th March 2019.
2. A "Clean Brexit". This means the same as a "Hard Brexit", but makes the resulting injuries seem a bit more clinical.
3. A "Blind Brexit". This means stepping onto a short plank on 29th March 2019. The plank comes to an abrupt (and probably fatal) end on 31st December 2020.
That's it, take your pick:
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More from @MrHickmott see all

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Have you noticed all those "I'm so excited about stopping free movement and helping the rich that I've joined the Tories!" tweets?

Or all those "I'm so inspired by the prospect of a jobs-first me-too Brexit that I've joined the Labour Party!" tweets?

On the other hand...
How many tweets like this are you seeing every day?
In my view it's not the messenger, it's the message - a message of hope in a voice of clear reason. No one wakes up in the morning and says "you know, I think I'll become a Lib Dem". But when everyone else is doubling down on bullshit, it could be the way to go.
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It's not just Rolls Royce... Here's what we can conclude (short #thread):

theguardian.com/business/2018/…
1. Although no manufacturing jobs are being moved, the EU's aviation body will take the place of the CAA. Clearly this is a work transfer.

2. UK aviation companies are showing they lack confidence in the UK government to provide safeguards.

...
3. There is turbulence ahead as aerospace manufacturers weigh where to invest. They operate closely integrated supply chains, so expect them to move as one body.

4. Much depends what Rolls, Bombardier and Airbus do. They will take tens of thousands of jobs with them if they go.
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Some ideas for future referendums:

> A pay rise for everyone

> Bring back hanging

> Free beer for Brits

> Chips in real newspaper

> Scrap income tax

> Elect doctors and teachers

Can anyone spot the problem with referendums?
Let's have a referendum to have more old music in the charts. Everyone knows that old music is better, so kids should be grateful in time.
Or, to take a darker turn, a referendum to confiscate the property of some unpopular minority group and use it to reduce the taxes on the rest of us?

Wouldn't that be democratic?

You see, there are good reasons why referendums are not a central feature of our constitution.
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If only this was true!

We predicted the citizens' rights debacle and that the UK would end up on bare bones WTO terms before the referendum, so after roleplaying the various scenarios, here's a thread to put on the record what we expect to happen next....
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
The Parliamentary calculus states that the only way any Brexit deal will pass is if Labour support the motion. Most #Brexperts don't believe they would, be we think they will and we also think it's a Tory trap. Allow us to explain the logic...
Labour's priority is a General Election, and the bare bones deal being offered by EU loosely matches Labour's CU demands, keeps the NI border open and gives May some scope to soften the WA in exchange for Labour votes. But why would Labour support it and not collapse government?
Read 24 tweets
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Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? More analysis, with more data and charts!

Part 5: **Balance in Brexit reporting**

Which outlets are more positive about #Brexit, and which are more negative?
Running the numbers, it seems that the BBC's articles are most likely to skew positive about Brexit, while the Independent is the most negative.

In the middle, the Guardian and the Mail (the latter possibly due to MoS vs DM stances).
So, how did I reach this conclusion? Readers of previous threads will know that I’ve been analysing the headlines of 2,000 Brexit articles and body text of 1300 items published since Jan 2018.
Read 21 tweets
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1. I am told I should welcome the efforts of @betterbrexit. I'm not impressed. It's too little, far too late and ill thought out. EEA might well be a large part of the solution but it is not a miracle solution and moving into it from the position of being an EU member is not easy
2. To maintain frictionless trade we would need a customs protocol to go with it along with a series of negotiated annexes which may take a number of years to complete. It's not as simple as just filling in an Efta application form.
3. EEA has often been described as an off the shelf solution (even by me) but it is only off the shelf insofar as it is an existing framework. It still needs to be beaten into shape and will have to take into account the concerns and red lines of Efta members.
Read 22 tweets
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Some very breathless reporting/reading of @MichelBarnier remarks y'day. So what is happening on #Brexit? Some thoughts on talking with both sides. 1/Thread
@MichelBarnier First Barnier. To be clear, it was absolutely orthodox. We respect UK red lines, but within those limits will give UK broadest ever FTA and Association Agreement. It's EXACTLY what he said on Aug 2 OpEd: "unprecedented in scope and depth." /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/new…
@MichelBarnier So why all the huffing and puffing, the sudden optimism about EU willingness and desire to cut a deal?

Well first, it's important to focus on what that 'deal' is in Oct/Nov - it's the withdrawal agreement.

Money. Citizens. Northern Ireland backstop. NOT Chequers. /2
Read 18 tweets
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So. #Brexit has slipped out of the headlines - but like two prizefighters, both sides are setting themselves for the fight to come. Some of the battles are EU v EU, some UK v UK.

So what's going on? Here's a quick overview from what I know.
1/thread
First the UK v UK debate.

As we report today, David Davis and Olly Robbins are representing conflicting views over how 'ambitious' the UK should be in the scope of the non-binding annex on trade and the future relationship. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It seems DD got his way in sending a letter asking Govt departments to tool up for Brexit negotiations, including teams of specialists.

Time will tell if this was a face-saving measure for the Brexit Secretary who has long argued UK must seek guts of a trade deal in A50. /3
Read 18 tweets
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I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

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