Just doing some review for the election projection model (short version). Notice @realDonaldTrump had an 8-point lead with indies vs. @HillaryClinton, yet was still 10-points behind her in the RV horserace. LV was 7 points. Final poll before Election Day. realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016…
In the 4-way, Donald Trump also had an 8-point lead over Hillary Clinton among indies, but was trailing her by 12 points among RVs and 7 points among LVs, the latter being the same as the 2-way. Again, this was a final poll before Election Day.
Where am I going with all of this? He won indies, but by 4 points. Yet, the margin was smaller. That's a likely voter model and a partisan identification issue. I suspect they didn't push those indies to tell them who they really were. I suspect it's happening again, in reverse.
I am in no way trying to pick on this particular poll. Quite the opposite, just the luck of the draw. It's actually rather indicative of what we've found juxtaposing other panels with us, and the actual result.
