Paris always had an incredibly problematic posture twds the Balkans. But it’s US’ shifting commitments that are making Vucic’s adventurism plausible. And another reason why Brexit is such a debacle for the Balkans. The UK was a key ally & proponent of credible policy. Now gone.
Also, and the risk of stating the obvious: this is really their proposal. Vucic is visiting Kosovo, Thaci is on board, they’ve recruited key civil society voices, the EU is silent sans GER & the US has apparently reversed it’s long standing policy vs. partition.
If they truly push ahead, which they seem determined to, there will be violence sooner & later. In Kosovo & Serbia where there is a groundswell of opposition, possibly in Macedonia, and most alarmingly in BiH. This is a green light for Dodik: Dayton is dead, go for broke.
There’s been a discernible campaign to legitimize partition proposals for the region since 2016, specifically since Brexit/Trump. As I wrote for @aminterest in 2017, it’s a gambit that will mean local violence, implode Western credibility & empower RUS. the-american-interest.com/2017/05/02/in-…
