Thread by @khalidkarim

Sometimes people misunderstand what I say about feasibility.
Ada dua aspect ie
1)Financial
2)Economic
Two different animals.

Public Transport is very rarely financially viable.But if creates economic value...then it shud still be green lighted.

But if both kaput..no go lah.

Economic benefit for transport project is not just "multipliers".Ada established methods of computation.Hv to assess the direct user benefits,benefits to non-users first lah.

Then...only talk about wider economic benefits...a black art prone to double counting & fairy tales.

CBA is a tool to compare alternatives...mana lagi bagus?Don't do anything,buat LRT,buat tram or just use buses(BRT,dedicated lanes or mix traffic).

Kena lah see the big picture before decide.Not just main hentam...or flip a coin

That's why hv to spend years to get big projects approved.Kena buat survey,kena buat detailed ridership forecast,kena kira budget betul2...and kena publish output for feedback.
Then kena pi table and debate kat Parliament.

It's duit rakyat...so cannot play play one.

CrossRail in present form took 7 years to get Parliament to approve budget.But the result...the job will be completed on budget after 7 years construction.

Msia MRT budget cost 47B..now if allowed to continue can cost RM150B.Die lah project planning like this.

U guys shud follow @BentFlyvbjerg and read all the research he hv done on megaprojects~how so many went bad.Typical lah macam MRT...initially budget low and ridership very high~to get project greenlight.Later..cost naik gila but ridership(benefits) 3 times lower.

Even for a much smaller Metro in India ie Pune...they did a very detailed study and published a 519 paged document to justify project.Very detailed info...despite project costing only RM5B for 31 km.

We MUST hv same level of transparency lah.

I hv been very critical of Najib's megaprojects.Like MRT2..first he said in Parliament that it will cost RM23B.Just one year later...again in Parliament he said will cost RM28B.By that time project dah jalan.Later we found out~construction cost alone is RM32B

But so many other cost not included eg PDP fees,reimburseables,overheads,feeder buses,contingency and IDC.I think project may easily cost RM53B if MoF use same calc method as for LRT3.So,project belum siap~cost overrun already RM30B ie 130%.
Play play with our $$$

Time for a New Malaysia ie proper processes and greater transparency.No more building a line to a small town somewhere costing RM1.28B and then talk cock about multipliers.
We want to see real numbers now.

Agree?