Thread by @Elizrael

Israeli Channel 2: In a few days, the Trump admin will publicly announce a new policy intended to remove the issue of the Palestinian refugees from the negotiating table >>

The Trump admin will publish a report intending to prove that there are only 0.5 million Palestinian refugees & not over 5 million as @UNRWA reports. The admin will officially reject UNRWA's policy of counting descendants (2,3,4 generation) of the 1948 refugees as refugees too.

@UNRWA Israeli Channel 2: The Trump administration will also halt financing to UNRWA in the West Bank & urge Israel to ban UNRWA from operating in the West Bank. The goal is to prevent Arab states from making up for the cut in US contributions to West Bank UNRWA service recipients >

@UNRWA The Israeli gov is seeing this as a victory. The Trump administration "is fully adopting Israel's position" officials in Jerusalem told Channel 2.
bit.ly/2o93Rxl
(Hebrew)

My analysis: If this report is true, it provides a boost for Israel's right-wing gov & the narrative of the Israeli Right that Israel just needs to stand up for its principles & eventually the int'l community will bend according to Israel's wishes.

This would be a major political win for Netanyahu personally, who is fighting off challenges from the far-right (not the center or Left). Bennet recently attacked Netanyahu for being too soft on Hamas, but it's harder to challenge a leader achieving such wins for the Right.

More importantly, this move by the Trump admin further worsens the precarious int'l standing of the Palestinians, which arguably has not been at such a nadir since 1948. There is much less int'l & Arab attention to Palestine due to preoccupation w/ internal problems.

The leaders of the current center of political & financial power in the Middle East, the Arab Gulf states, are increasingly disinterested in the plight of the Palestinians, preferring to focus on Iran & internal squabbles. Israel maintain not-so-secret relations w/ all of them.

Internally, the Palestinian are split between the West Bank & Gaza & the recent deal concerning the future of Israel's closure policy on Gaza only reinforces this separation. Neither Hamas' "resistance" or Abbas' cooperation w/ Israel have yielded any political results.

Hamas' rule over Gaza is a useful talking point for Israel, on the rare occasions foreign officials even mention that Israel should negotiate to end the occupation.
Negotiations concerning Israel-Palestine now revolve around economic/basic rights, not self-determination.

Inside Israel, the Joint List representing Israel's Palestinians has failed to operate as a joint list due to internal squabbles over division of seats & ideological disagreements. The weakness of Israel's Jewish Left further undermines their political power in& out of parliament

No mainstream peace plan stipulated that Israel would ever absorb more than a symbolic number of Palestinian refugees, but previously, this was something to be determined in negotiations, a card to play in exchange for something else.

Due to absence of the EU from the Middle East, what the US says matters. Since 2004, the US has "taken off the table" the removal of large settlement blocs, Jerusalem and now the Palestinian refugee issue.

The Palestinians can not possibly negotiate a deal that meets even their most minimal demands under these conditions. This means the occupation will persist & so will the immense human suffering it entails. Land theft, closures, arrests, daily humiliations, no free movement, etc.