Quick analysis of the developments in rebel-held Idlib/western Aleppo. Following collapse of Nour a-Din a-Zenki, the group most consistently able to mobilize its fighters against HTS jihadists, HTS is rushing to expand its control.
Main events:
Main events:
The rapid collapse of Nour a-Din a-Zenki & al-Atareb, a town able to resist the domination of any outside group (regime/ISIS/jihadist rebels) for years, sent shock-waves through Idlib. Multiple towns surrendered to HTS, coming under its civilian & military control without a fight
Multiple sub-factions of the National Liberation Front, the conglomeration of anti-HTS rebels (Islamists and Free Syrian Army), publicly declared their neutrality to avoid being wiped out. Statements here from units of Jaysh al-Ahrar, Suquour al-Sham, Jaysh al-Nasr & Second Army. 
In some ways, this pattern resembles the regime's rapid progress in Daraa in 2018. Once realizing no foreign help will come & they'll be destroyed, towns quickly surrendered to the regime & rebels chose not to fight. HTS dominance is scaring towns & rebels into submission.
Fighters among the National Liberation Front and civilians expected Turkey to back them against HTS, but now many believe that Turkey is allowing HTS to take over Idlib to justify regime offensive on the area in return for Russian permission to take Manbij and Kurdish areas.
The snowball effect of surrenders and statements of neutrality means that towns and rebel groups still holding off against HTS are more likely to sign surrender agreements too. Unless Turkey & the FSA groups it backs intervene, I expect HTS to progress with little fighting.
This is a terrible development for civilians and civil society in Idlib and western Aleppo. Even before the latest advances by HTS, the jihadists adopted a more aggressive stance toward any perceived & even rumored opponents, jailing hundreds of activists and ordinary civilians.
This is also a terrible development for residents of Efrin, a (formerly?) Kurdish-majority area now under direct Turkish control. (Arab) opponents of HTS are being displaced there, further altering the demography of the area & exacerbating Kurdish-Arab tensions there.
There hasn't been any credibly reporting re: why Ankara chose to abandon the rebels it financed & armed for years. The DMZ agreement Turkey reached with Russia is totally undermined by these advances by HTS, helping Assad justify offensive on Idlib bit.ly/2Fm0FrU
The National Liberation Front surrenders the civilian administration of rebel-held Idlib & surrounding areas to HTS' "Salvation Government." Areas under NLF control were previously self-governed/supported by the mainstream Syrian Interim Government bit.ly/2Fl5bXM
This ceasefire agreement allows the NLF to keep its weapons. Calls for removing barriers placed on roads and release of POWs from both sides.
This deals follows smaller surrender agreements of multiple towns that "invited" takeover of HTS' Salvation Gov't to avoid fighting.
This deals follows smaller surrender agreements of multiple towns that "invited" takeover of HTS' Salvation Gov't to avoid fighting.
The Free Idlib Police dissolves itself following subjugation of Idlib, Hama and western and southern Aleppo to the control of the "Salvation Government" of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (and its police).
