GOP chances of keeping the House are 1 in 5 according to our Classic model -- which isn't great but a tick better than last week, when they were 1 in 6. 53eig.ht/2MlNFag
To maintain >80% chance of winning the House in our model, Democrats need to consistently have VERY good polling. And a lot of their polling *has* been very good or even great. But, there's a bit of weakness in the Sunbelt—particularly CA & FL.
As an aside, I kinda hate when our forecasts are in the ~80% range. That's the zone when people start to mentally round up to 100%. And they shouldn't; 80% is a long way from certain. At the same time, it's high enough that it's disingenuous to imply that it's anybody's race.
