The Democrats whittled away at more of the GOP gains vs 2016 as a number of states (AZ, CO, OR) counted a weekend’s worth of mail-in ballots. What we see now is nearly final as most states have ended #earlyvoting and few mail-in ballots remain.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +0.80% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.07%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+0.87%. So the GOP is doing ~153K early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018
#MAGA #Election2018
#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 7 states; to the #Dems in 6.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
At R+0.87% with just one day left of mail-in ballots and early in-person voting finished, #earlyvoting should finish about R+0.87% as compared to 2016. This is slightly below the range of R+1.0% to R+1.5% I had predicted last week.
#MAGA #Election2018
#MAGA #Election2018
The #GOP ending #earlyvoting ~0.87% better than they did in 2016 or anything above 0.0% would be remarkable. 2016 was a great year for #Republicans, winning 241 House seats & Presidency.
#MAGA #Election2018
#MAGA #Election2018
Going into #ElectionDay, would you rather be the party that gained ~153K votes in #earlyvoting or lost them?
There is no sign of the supposed #bluewave and perhaps a small #redwave might be coming.
#MAGA #Election2018
There is no sign of the supposed #bluewave and perhaps a small #redwave might be coming.
#MAGA #Election2018
About 17.6 million votes have already been counted in #earlyvoting in just these 13 states alone. This represents about 45% of the projected numbers of votes to be cast in these states and about 16% of the total projected to be cast this election.
#MAGA #Election2018
#MAGA #Election2018
Interestingly, states with competitive statewide races (AZ, FL, NV, WV) are among those seeing the largest GOP gains. Those with the biggest Dem gains (CO, IA, LA, ME, NC) have no or fewer competitive statewide races.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
Here's a different way to look at the results.
The width of each bar represents the number of early votes cast in each state. As you can see, CA and FL were the big states, NE and WV barely register, IA and LA had virtually the same change in vote share.
#MAGA #earlyvoting
The width of each bar represents the number of early votes cast in each state. As you can see, CA and FL were the big states, NE and WV barely register, IA and LA had virtually the same change in vote share.
#MAGA #earlyvoting
